TikTok Shop growth remains strong, and J&T is likely to benefit in the short term from rising e-commerce logistics volume in Southeast Asia

Overview

This report is a summary of the TikTok Shop logistics specialist conference call held by Nomura's China Internet and New Media team, with a focus on TikTok Shop global and Southeast Asia GMV, parcel volume, fulfillment model, Indonesia antitrust investigation, and the implications for J&T Express. The key conclusion is that TikTok Shop's growth momentum remains strong, and in Southeast Asia a more suitable strategy is reliance on third-party logistics and a local-certified-warehouse ecosystem in an asset-light model, rather than large-scale self-built logistics networks in the short term. This supports J&T, which is closely tied to TikTok Shop, on a near-term basis.

Core views

TikTok Shop's e-commerce growth remained strong in 1H26, with Southeast Asia and the United States as the main contribution areas. In Southeast Asia, low average order values and limited willingness to pay for ultra-fast delivery mean TikTok Shop is more likely to maintain a concentration on central dispatch, third-party logistics partnerships, and a local certified warehouse, asset-light model. For J&T, sustained volume growth at TikTok Shop should support Southeast Asian parcel volumes; although Indonesia regulation may prompt the platform to add more regional logistics providers, J&T's network coverage, fulfillment capability, and cost advantage make short-term share risk relatively manageable.

Analysis framework

The report is based on information from the TikTok Shop Southeast Asia logistics solutions specialist call, combining GMV, regional contribution, parcel volume, average order value, fulfillment model, regulatory investigation, and logistics cost structure to triangulate TikTok Shop's logistics strategy and the investment implications for J&T Express.

Methodology notes

• Expert interviewLogistics specialist conference call

  Evaluate platform fulfillment strategy and logistics provider share risk through frontline expert information.

  The report mainly relies on the TikTok Shop Southeast Asia logistics specialist's descriptions of GMV growth, parcel volume, FBT rollout, Indonesia regulation, and pricing negotiations to form a near-term outlook for J&T.

• Valuation methodEV/EBIT multiple method

  Derive target price using an 18x FY26F EV/EBIT multiple.

  The report discloses that EV/EBIT is the primary valuation method for J&T Express, with a target price of HKD14 based on 18x FY26F EV/EBIT and the Hang Seng Index as the reference valuation benchmark.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• J&T Express (1519 HK)

  A key logistics partner for TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia, benefiting from platform parcel growth.

  Strengths

  Broad network coverage, strong fulfillment capability, cost advantage, deep integration with TikTok Shop.

  Weaknesses

  Dependence on TikTok Shop parcel volume and platform dispatch rules, with potential pressure from logistics-provider diversification under regulatory scrutiny.

  Comparison

  Compared with potential regional logistics providers, specialists believe J&T still holds advantages in scale, service quality, and cost competitiveness.

  Risks

  Indonesia regulation, intensifying competition, lower-than-expected parcel-volume growth, weaker-than-expected cost optimization, and fuel cost pressure.

• TikTok Shop

  E-commerce platform operator, whose GMV and fulfillment strategy determine third-party logistics demand.

  Strengths

  1H26 GMV growth remains strong, with Southeast Asia and the United States as core growth engines, and promotion cadence may support the full-year objective.

  Weaknesses

  Low AOV in Southeast Asia limits large-scale in-house fulfillment and commercializing ultra-fast delivery, while regulation pressures the logistics allocation mechanism.

  Comparison

  More aggressive FBT rollout in the United States, while Southeast Asia is more oriented toward third-party logistics and a local certified warehouse ecosystem.

  Risks

  Regulatory requirements to open logistics interfaces, fulfillment-experience variability, regional market competition, and policy changes.

Key data

• TikTok Shop 1H26 global GMVabout USD35bnSpecialists described growth as strong.
• Southeast Asia GMV shareabout 53%Up about 100% year-on-year, the largest contributing region.
• North America GMV shareabout 29%Mainly the United States, up more than 130% year-on-year, with last year’s low base affected by tariff-related disruption.
• Europe GMV shareabout 10%The scale remains relatively small.
• Southeast Asia AOVabout USD4-5Overall relatively low and stable except in Singapore.
• Southeast Asia daily parcel volumeabout 20-30 million parcels/daySpecialists estimate this has reached a meaningful scale.
• Indonesia parcel share of Southeast Asiaabout 30%The largest market in Southeast Asia.
• Per-parcel cost structureabout 60% last-mile delivery and about 20% line-haulFuel costs only affect part of the line-haul segment, so overall cost impact is limited.
• J&T current priceHKD9.25Price date is 2026-07-03.
• J&T target priceHKD14Based on 18x FY26F EV/EBIT.

Impact & implications

For J&T Express, growth in TikTok Shop GMV and parcel volume in Southeast Asia is a direct positive, especially as J&T remains the dominant logistics partner. The Indonesia regulatory review may create pressure for logistics provider diversification, but the platform is likely to keep central dispatch to balance service quality, network coverage, and fulfillment cost. The fact that TikTok Shop is not aggressively rolling out self-built FBT fulfillment at scale in Southeast Asia also reduces the near-term risk of it bypassing third-party logistics partners.

Risks

• The Indonesia logistics-related antitrust investigation could require TikTok Shop to open access to more logistics providers.
• If TikTok Shop changes its centralized dispatch mechanism, J&T's parcel share could be diluted in some markets.
• Rising competition could compress logistics pricing or raise service costs.
• If parcel-volume growth is below expectations, J&T's Southeast Asian growth momentum would weaken.
• Rising fuel, labor, or last-mile delivery costs could squeeze margins.
• Country-specific regulatory risks could affect e-commerce and logistics operations.

What to watch

• The pace of TikTok Shop 2H26 promotion cadence and progress toward the roughly USD100bn full-year GMV target.
• Whether Southeast Asia daily parcel volume continues to grow close to year-on-year doubling.
• The outcome of the Indonesia regulatory investigation and whether TikTok Shop expands the pool of regional logistics providers.
• Changes in J&T's share of TikTok Shop parcels and outcomes of per-parcel pricing negotiations.
• Whether TikTok Shop shifts in Southeast Asia from an asset-light fulfillment ecosystem toward a heavier self-built execution model.
• The actual impact of fuel and last-mile delivery costs on J&T's profit margins.