In April, the ASP of optical fiber exports surged by 77%, while Furukawa Electric’s new plant ramped up production.

Overview

This report analyzes Japan’s exports of optical fibers and fiber optic cables, drawing on April trade statistics released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF). The data reveal that, despite fluctuations in export volumes, average selling prices (ASPs) have risen markedly, reflecting tight supply‑demand conditions in the market. The report highlights that Furukawa Electric’s new plant in Mie Prefecture has begun contributing to production capacity, driving a sharp increase in exports from the Nagoya Customs jurisdiction. Although some industry leaders have issued relatively cautious earnings guidance, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic, believing that robust demand for AI‑driven data center construction will underpin underlying sales growth, and thus maintains a positive outlook on companies specializing in related optical products.

Core views

Price-driven export growth amid a tight supply‑demand balance According to MOF data, in April Japan’s optical fiber cable exports increased by 8% year on year, with optical fiber exports surging 78% yoy. This expansion was not driven by volume but by a sharp rise in average selling prices: the ASP for optical fiber cables jumped 77% yoy, and that for optical fibers climbed 44% yoy. This pattern of “stable or declining volumes coupled with rising prices” is widely interpreted as strong evidence that supply chain constraints and robust demand have bolstered pricing power. Clear signs of capacity ramp-up at Furukawa Electric’s new plant Customs jurisdiction data reveal particularly strong performance in Nagoya, where optical fiber cable exports soared 206% yoy in value and 147% yoy in volume. Given that Furukawa Electric’s principal production base is located in Mie Prefecture—under the Nagoya Customs jurisdiction—while Fujikura and Sumitomo Electric are based in Chiba (Tokyo Customs) and Yokohama (Yokohama Customs), respectively, the report infers that the surge in Nagoya’s figures reflects the contribution of Furukawa Electric’s newly commissioned ultra‑high‑density optical fiber cable plant, which produces rollable ribbon cables. AI data center demand remains more resilient than market expectations Recently, companies such as Fujikura and Furukawa Electric have issued fiscal‑year guidance or interim plans below market forecasts, sparking concerns about a growth slowdown amid shortages of optical fiber and other bottlenecks—including electricity, equipment, and labor. However, the report notes that other firms involved in AI‑related products have yet to signal a deceleration in AI data center investment. As optical components are critical inputs for AI data center construction, the report concludes that actual sales growth is unlikely to be confined to the low end of these companies’ guidance, and it maintains an optimistic stance on the sector.

Analysis framework

The report employs a hybrid approach, combining top-down macroeconomic data disaggregation with bottom-up firm‑level fundamentals mapping. First, by dissecting MOF’s trade statistics across three dimensions—export value, export volume, and average selling price (ASP)—the analysis identifies rising prices as the primary driver, leading to the conclusion that supply‑demand conditions are tight. Second, using customs jurisdiction data as a proxy, the study maps aggregate export data to specific firms. By comparing growth differentials across key ports—Tokyo, Yokohama, and Nagoya—and cross‑referencing them with the geographic locations of each company’s major production facilities, it precisely attributes capacity contributions to Furukawa Electric’s new plant. Finally, by conducting cross‑validation between firm‑level guidance and macro‑level AI‑related investment trends, the report refutes the market’s excessive concerns about an earnings slowdown and establishes a robust rationale for maintaining a bullish outlook.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  By decomposing sales revenue into the volume and price components, we can determine the sources of growth.

  In this report, the institution finds that the growth in export value is primarily driven by a substantial increase in average selling price (ASP) rather than higher sales volumes, leading to the conclusion that supply‑demand conditions are tight and sellers’ bargaining power has strengthened—this is a textbook application of quantity‑price decomposition analysis.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkTransmission across the upstream, midstream, and downstream segments of the industrial chain

  Downstream demand or the operating performance of specific manufacturers is inferred from upstream and midstream shipment data.

  The report leverages customs export data (at the midstream manufacturing stage) to infer the capacity‑utilization dynamics of specific manufacturers such as Furukawa Electric, and further links these findings to the demand outlook for downstream AI data centers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Furukawa Electric

  Benefit: The sharp increase in exports reported by the Nagoya Customs indicates that its new plant in Mie Prefecture has begun ramping up production, directly boosting revenue growth.

  Strengths

  The commissioning of the new plant will increase supply and is expected to meet the high-density cabling requirements of AI data centers.

  Weaknesses

  The previously issued mid-year sales growth guidance fell short of market expectations, triggering short-term volatility.

  Comparison

  Compared with Fujikura, which posted a 91% year-on-year increase in the Tokyo Customs jurisdiction, and Sumitomo Electric, which recorded negative growth in the Yokohama Customs jurisdiction, Furukawa Electric demonstrated the strongest export momentum in April.

  Risks

  Capacity ramp-up falls short of expectations; the pace of investment in AI data centers has slowed.

• Fujikura

  Neutral-to-Bullish: Tokyo Customs reports steady export growth, but the sector faces bottlenecks such as fiber-optic cable shortages.

  Strengths

  The company’s leading position in the industry remains firmly established, benefiting from a broad-based increase in average selling prices (ASPs).

  Weaknesses

  It explicitly points out that non-optical bottlenecks, such as power and equipment, may constrain delivery.

  Comparison

  Export growth lagged behind that of Furukawa Electric, but the base figure was considerably larger.

  Risks

  Supply chain bottlenecks have persisted longer than expected.

• Sumitomo Electric

  Neutral: Yokohama Customs’ export data posted a year-on-year decline, reflecting relatively weak performance.

  Strengths

  Diversified business portfolio.

  Weaknesses

  In April, export value fell 24% year-on-year, with both volume and price performance lagging behind peers.

  Comparison

  Among the three major manufacturers, export momentum was weakest in April.

  Risks

  Loss of market share; intensifying competition.

Key data

• Year-on-year growth rate of the average selling price (ASP) for fiber-optic cable exports+77%April data reflect significant upward pressure on prices.
• Year-on-year growth rate of fiber optic export ASP+44%April data also point to an upward trend in prices.
• Year-on-year growth rate of optical fiber cable exports at the Nagoya Customs+206%Suggests that Furukawa Electric’s new plant is making a substantial contribution.
• Year-on-year growth rate of fiber-optic cable exports at the Nagoya Customs.+147%Consistent with the increase in supply resulting from the commissioning of the new plant.
• The United States’ share of optical fiber cable exports58%Calendar-year 2025 data, for major export destinations

Impact & implications

For Japanese optical‑component manufacturers such as Furukawa Electric, Fujikura, and Sumitomo Electric, the sharp rise in ASPs signals potential improvements in profitability, particularly when raw-material costs remain relatively stable. The successful commissioning of Furukawa Electric’s new plant is helping to alleviate supply constraints, enabling the company to better capitalize on the demand tailwinds driven by AI data‑center construction. Although share prices may face short-term pressure due to cautious guidance, robust fundamentals—characterized by both rising volumes and prices, or steady prices amid increasing volumes—support a medium‑to‑long‑term re-rating. Investors should closely monitor changes in gross margins and the ramp-up of utilization rates at the newly commissioned capacity in upcoming quarterly earnings reports.

Risks

• Capital expenditure growth in AI data centers has slowed.
• Supply-chain bottlenecks—spanning electricity, labor, and equipment—have persisted longer than anticipated.
• Exchange rate fluctuations affect export earnings.
• Competitor capacity expansion has triggered a price war.

What to watch

• Capacity utilization at Furukawa Electric’s new plant in Mie Prefecture and the status of subsequent orders
• Gross margin changes in the next quarter’s corporate earnings reports
• The progress of AI infrastructure investment in major export destinations such as the United States
• Trends in the prices of optical fiber and cable raw materials