618 promotional GMV was boosted by subsidies and discounts, with beauty leading but ROI diverging

Overview

This report reviews sales performance, discount investment, subsidy effects, and changes in brand rankings during China's 2026 618 Shopping Festival across major platforms such as Douyin, JD, and Tmall/Taobao. The report notes that GMV was strong this year under the support of government subsidies, platform discounts, and brand promotions, but GSV YoY growth slowed, and returns on promotional spending varied significantly across categories and brands. Overall, beauty, pet food, ultra-premium baijiu, and some durable goods brands performed relatively well, while jewelry, sportswear, some home appliances, and some mass-market consumer brands were under pressure.

Core views

Core views include: first, aggregate online GSV across major platforms rose 6% YoY, below 10% in the same period last year, but the gap between parcel volume growth and GSV growth narrowed, reflecting improvement in average ticket size; second, subsidies and discounts supported GMV, but ROI diverged across categories, with competition intensifying in pet food and similar categories, snack discounts narrowing, and beauty and jewelry discounts broadly unchanged; third, growth became more concentrated in leading and premium brands, with leading beauty MNCs and domestic brands such as Forest Cabin, Mao Geping, and Proya outperforming the sector; fourth, online baijiu growth was concentrated in the ultra-premium segment, with Moutai and Wuliangye contributing strongly; fifth, jewelry was dragged down by gold price volatility and a high base, while overall sportswear was muted though some international and specialist brands improved in ranking.

Analysis framework

The report combines platform data, third-party data, expert calls, channel checks, brand rankings, SKU price discount checks, and company communication to conduct the review. Analysis dimensions cover platforms, categories, brands, and price discounts, with a focus on comparing YoY changes between 2026 618 and 2025 618, 2025 Singles' Day, and across different platforms.

Methodology notes

• Platform sales tracking618 platform GMV and GSV review

  Use changes in GMV, GSV, and parcel volume across major e-commerce platforms to judge demand strength during the promotional event.

  The report uses information from Analysys, Syntun, Tmall, JD, Douyin, and expert calls to compare platform and category sales growth during 2026 618, while monitoring the gap between GMV, GSV, and parcel volume.

• Price and promotion analysisDiscount rate and subsidy verification

  Estimate promotional intensity through SKU prices, platform subsidies, merchant discounts, and membership benefits.

  The report checks Tmall flagship store prices, 88 VIP benefits, platform discounts, merchant discounts, red packets, and other promotional offers to judge whether discounts deepened and their potential impact on category ROI.

• Brand competitive landscapeBrand ranking and leader concentration comparison

  Measure changes in the competitive landscape using shifts in brand rankings and GMV performance of top brands.

  The report compares brand rankings across Tmall/Taobao, Douyin, and JD in different categories to identify concentration trends among leaders in beauty, pet food, sportswear, baijiu, beer, and snacks.

• Channel and expert validationExpert calls and channel checks

  Use expert feedback and channel checks to validate pricing, subsidies, and demand changes behind platform data.

  The report cites earlier expert calls, platform channel checks, and company communication to further explain factors such as expanded subsidies, changes in KOL fees, gold price volatility, high bases, and offline foot traffic.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Beauty and premium MNC/domestic premium brands

  One of the main beneficiaries of this 618.

  Strengths

  Tmall/Taobao beauty GMV rose about 15% YoY, while Douyin beauty GMV rose 21% YoY; brands such as Estee Lauder, La Mer, Skinceuticals, YSL, Forest Cabin, Mao Geping, and Proya performed strongly.

  Weaknesses

  Some Japanese brands and mass-market brands performed weakly, with Shiseido Group GMV down 21% YoY from June 1 to 18, while Decorte and SK-II posted low completion rates.

  Comparison

  Compared with 2025 618, premium MNC and domestic premium brands held rankings more steadily, and some domestic brands significantly outperformed the industry.

  Risks

  Withdrawal of subsidies, changes in channel costs, platform traffic volatility, and high bases may affect subsequent growth.

• Pet food

  A high-growth category with intensifying competition.

  Strengths

  Taobao/Tmall pet food GMV rose about 48% YoY, with brands such as Rosy Fresh, Royal Canin, and Legend Sandy ranking high.

  Weaknesses

  Discounts widened for domestic brands, and Myfoodie under Gambol fell in Tmall overall ranking versus last year's 618.

  Comparison

  Compared with 2025 618, Fregate's ranking was relatively stable, while Myfoodie improved in cat staple food but declined in dog staple food.

  Risks

  Intensifying discount competition may compress margins, and changes in brand rankings indicate that top-tier competition remains unstable.

• Baijiu and beer

  Growth is concentrating in leaders and premium products.

  Strengths

  JD baijiu GMV rose 25% YoY, with Moutai and Wuliangye performing strongly; Tsingtao, Budweiser, and Yanjing ranked top three among JD beer brands.

  Weaknesses

  Growth was mainly concentrated in ultra-premium baijiu, and whether it can spread to mainstream price bands remains to be seen.

  Comparison

  Baijiu online promotions were relatively rational versus the same period last year, while beer SKU discounts generally widened.

  Risks

  Demand for premium liquor, price discipline, and changes in channel inventory may affect subsequent performance.

• Sportswear

  Overall sales were muted but structural winners exist.

  Strengths

  Descente, Decathlon, Kolon Sport, Adidas, Fila, and Lulu improved rankings or maintained momentum.

  Weaknesses

  Overall sales trends were weak, Nike and Camel fell in ranking, and some brands relied on deeper discounts.

  Comparison

  Compared with 2025 618, discounts were broadly stable to slightly deeper, with international specialist brands and some niche brands showing greater resilience.

  Risks

  Weak offline foot traffic, looser discount discipline, and insufficient demand for mass-market brands may continue to weigh on growth.

• Home appliances and durable consumer goods

  Overall growth was muted, with stronger performance from segment leaders.

  Strengths

  Midea and Haier maintained leadership in home appliances, Roborock led share in robotic vacuum and floor washer segments, while Ninebot and Ecovacs disclosed strong GMV growth.

  Weaknesses

  The trade-in stimulus last year created a high base, leading to relatively moderate overall home appliance growth.

  Comparison

  Some air-conditioner prices were lower than this year's Singles' Day but still higher YoY, suggesting brands may be using promotions to stimulate demand.

  Risks

  Rising input costs, deeper promotions, and high bases may drag on margins.

• Jewelry

  A weaker-performing category in this 618.

  Strengths

  Average discounts were relatively stable YoY, and offline channel checks showed some improvement in May trends.

  Weaknesses

  Gold price volatility and declines were headwinds, fixed-price products faced greater pressure than weight-based products, and Laopu's May sales on the Tmall channel fell 47% YoY.

  Comparison

  Compared with 2025 618, overall jewelry performance lagged, with fixed-price products under more visible pressure.

  Risks

  Gold price volatility, high bases, diversion from offline promotions, and weak online demand remain the main risks.

• Dairy products and infant formula

  Discounts widened, while leading brand rankings improved.

  Strengths

  Yili and Satine ranked high on Douyin, with Satine and Deluxe posting GMV growth of 50%+ and 90%+, respectively, during the period.

  Weaknesses

  Discounts in liquid milk and IMF widened versus 2025 618, indicating relatively high competitive and promotional pressure.

  Comparison

  Satine's ranking improved from No. 7 in 2025 618 to No. 3, showing stronger performance from leading premium sub-brands.

  Risks

  The impact of deep discounts on margins, the sustainability of demand recovery, and brand competition still need to be monitored.

Key data

• Online GSV growth across major platforms2026 618 up 6% YoYBased on Analysys data, below the 10% YoY growth in 2025 618.
• Parcel volume growthUp 8% YoY from May 13 to June 14, 2026This compared with 16% in the same period last year; the report believes the narrower gap between GSV and parcel volume growth may be related to higher average ticket size.
• Beauty GMVTmall/Taobao about 15% YoY growth; Douyin up 21% YoYBeauty performed in line with or better than the overall platforms, supported by user expansion and subsidies.
• Pet food GMVTaobao/Tmall up about 48% YoYThe high growth was accompanied by wider discounts, reflecting intensified industry competition.
• High-growth categoriesHealth supplements about 20% YoY growth, 3C products about 19% YoY growthBoth were among the faster-growing categories on Tmall/Taobao during 618.
• Jewelry performanceDown about 27% YoYAffected by gold price volatility, declining gold prices, and a high base last year, with greater pressure on fixed-price products.
• Online baijiu GMVOverall up 25% YoY based on JD dataGrowth was mainly concentrated in the ultra-premium segment, with Moutai and Wuliangye GMV up about 15%-16% YoY.
• Key durable goods brandsNinebot GMV up 70% YoY, online up 130% YoY; Ecovacs GMV up 23% YoYOverall home appliance growth was muted, but some brands and subsegments such as cleaning appliances and smart mobility were stronger.
• Domestic beauty brandsForest Cabin on Douyin up 188% YoY, Mao Geping up 54% YoYForest Cabin achieved a full-period completion rate of 356%, while Mao Geping reached 150%, highlighting strong performance by domestic premium brands.
• Pet food discountsDiscounts widened by 3ppt, 13ppt, and 6ppt for China Pet Foods, Gambol, and Rosy Fresh, respectivelyCompared with 2025 618, discounts among domestic pet food brands deepened, indicating rising competitive pressure.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, this 618 indicates that China's online consumer demand can still be released under the support of subsidies and discounts, but the marginal return on promotional spending is diverging. Investors should pay more attention to leaders that can maintain brand strength, improve rankings, and preserve profit discipline in a subsidy environment, rather than simply chasing GMV growth. Premiumization in beauty, leading-brand competition in pet food, online concentration in ultra-premium baijiu, and growth in cleaning appliances and smart mobility are more positive signals; caution is warranted on margin pressure in jewelry, some sportswear, mass-market brands, and categories reliant on deep discounts to drive sales.

Risks

• Subsidies and discounts support GMV, but ROI diverges across categories; if subsidies fade later, growth may slow.
• Discounts widened in categories such as pet food, dairy products, and beer, which may bring margin pressure.
• Home appliances, jewelry, and some sportswear face high-base or weak-demand issues.
• Gold price volatility creates clear disruption to jewelry consumption, especially affecting fixed-price products.
• Differences in platform definitions, GMV/GSV definitions, and third-party data sources may bias judgments on true demand strength.
• Changes in brand rankings may be affected by promotional timing, platform traffic, KOL fees, and channel shifts, and may not fully represent long-term brand strength.

What to watch

• Whether subsidies and platform discounts continue after 618, and whether GMV growth can translate into profit growth.
• Repurchase rates, rankings, and discount discipline of premium beauty MNC brands and domestic premium brands from July to August.
• Gross margin and market share changes of leading pet food brands after wider discounts.
• Online sell-through, price stability, and channel inventory in the ultra-premium baijiu segment.
• Whether offline foot traffic and rankings of mass-market sportswear brands can improve.
• The continued demand support from home appliance trade-in policies, premium products, and AI-related features.
• The sensitivity of jewelry sales to gold price volatility and diversion from offline promotions.