Goldman Sachs modestly lowers its 2Q26 crypto-related revenue assumptions but maintains approximately +22% sector median total return

Overview

This is a Goldman Sachs monthly valuation and earnings-assumption update covering Americas brokers and crypto-related companies. The report's central focus is to revalue models using the latest 2Q26 market data: crypto market capitalization was below expectations, ending USDC balances declined although average balances edged higher, industry trading volumes remained weak, and non-crypto market performance was stronger. Overall, Goldman Sachs modestly lowered near-term revenue assumptions while adjusting EPS, target P/E, and 12-month target prices based on the forward interest-rate curve, market multiples, and company segment indicators.

Core views

The report argues that crypto activity had not fully recovered in 2Q26: total crypto market capitalization declined 12% quarter over quarter, and average industry trading volumes fell approximately 23% quarter over quarter. Although June increased 18% month over month, this was insufficient to alter the weak quarterly trend. As a result, median 2Q26E revenue for the coverage group declined 3% versus the previous forecast. However, Goldman Sachs raised median 2027E and 2028E EPS by 3% and 4%, respectively, and continues to see +22% median 12-month total return for the sector. At the individual-stock level, COIN and FIGR remain Buy-rated, while CRCL, BTGO, WLTH, GEMI, GLXY, and ETOR are Neutral.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines top-down market factors with bottom-up company models. At the market level, it tracks total crypto market capitalization, USDC market capitalization, industry trading volumes, non-crypto market indices, and the forward interest-rate curve. At the company level, these variables are mapped to trading revenue, custody and staking revenue, stablecoin revenue, platform assets, asset-management AUM, and digital-asset gains and losses, which are then used to update revenue, EPS, valuation multiples, and target prices.

Methodology notes

• Earnings forecastingLine-by-line revaluation based on market indicators

  mark to market

  The report maps crypto market capitalization, platform assets, trading volumes, and stablecoin balances as of 06/30/26 in 2Q26 to company revenue items in order to update quarterly revenue and EPS forecasts.

• Valuation methods12-month target price

  Q5-Q8 earnings-based valuation

  Target prices are primarily based on Q5-Q8 earnings or segment valuation multiples. For example, GLXY uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation, GEMI uses an EV/gross profit multiple, and BTGO uses an EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple.

• Relative ratingGoldman Sachs coverage-universe rating system

  Buy, Neutral, Sell

  Buy or Sell depends on a stock's total-return potential relative to the coverage universe. Stocks that are not included on the Buy or Sell investment lists but remain under coverage are considered Neutral.

• Factor assessmentGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite score

  The Goldman Sachs factor framework compares companies' growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles relative to the market and industry peers, providing additional investment context.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN)

  Highly sensitive to market data through crypto trading, custody, staking, and digital-asset gains and losses; rating remains Buy.

  Strengths

  The $212 target price implies approximately 33% total return relative to the current price of $159.24, making it one of the core crypto trading platforms explicitly maintained at Buy in the report.

  Weaknesses

  The target price was lowered from $220 to $212, and 2Q26E EPS turned negative, indicating near-term revenue and earnings pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with Neutral-rated stocks, COIN still offers greater upside, but its earnings are more sensitive to industry trading volumes and crypto market capitalization.

  Risks

  Persistently weak trading volumes, declining crypto-asset prices, custody and staking revenue below expectations, and regulatory changes.

• Figure Technology Solutions Inc. (FIGR)

  Fintech and crypto-related coverage stock; rating remains Buy.

  Strengths

  The $43 target price implies approximately 32% total return relative to the current price of $32.67, while 2026E through 2028E EPS were all modestly raised.

  Weaknesses

  The target price was lowered from $46 to $43, and target P/E declined from 31.0x to 28.5x.

  Comparison

  Like COIN, FIGR is Buy-rated, but its model adjustments are more moderate, with EPS revisions in the low single-digit positive range.

  Risks

  Further compression in market multiples, business growth below expectations, and regulatory risks related to fintech and crypto.

• Circle Internet Group (CRCL)

  Stablecoin-related company; rating remains Neutral.

  Strengths

  The $96 target price implies approximately 55% total return relative to the current price of $61.95, while 2027E and 2028E EPS were raised by 7% and 15%, respectively.

  Weaknesses

  The target price was lowered from $111 to $96, and target P/E declined from 44.5x to 35.0x, reflecting pressure from lower valuation multiples.

  Comparison

  It offers one of the highest total returns among Neutral-rated stocks, but Goldman Sachs has not upgraded the rating, indicating that its relative risk-reward remains insufficient for inclusion on the Buy list.

  Risks

  Stablecoin balance growth below expectations, changes in the interest-rate environment, competition, and regulatory risks.

• BitGo Holdings (BTGO)

  Coverage stock related to custody, staking, platform assets, and stablecoin AUM; rating remains Neutral.

  Strengths

  The $7.75 target price implies approximately 51% total return relative to the current price of $5.13.

  Weaknesses

  The target price was lowered from $9.00 to $7.75, and 2Q26E and 2026E EPS were reduced, reflecting pressure on platform assets and trading revenue.

  Comparison

  Although the implied total return appears high, earnings forecast revisions are weaker and the rating remains Neutral.

  Risks

  Declining crypto market capitalization, shrinking platform assets, and custody and staking revenue below expectations.

• Wealthfront Corp. (WLTH)

  Wealth-management AUM is influenced by equity and fixed-income market proxy indicators; rating remains Neutral.

  Strengths

  The 80/20 equity/fixed-income proxy used by Goldman Sachs rose 4% on an FY2Q27TD basis, supporting AUM.

  Weaknesses

  The target price was reduced from $12.00 to $10.50, implying approximately 12% total return, below the coverage-group median.

  Comparison

  Compared with pure-play crypto trading platforms, WLTH is more affected by traditional-market AUM and has different near-term volatility drivers.

  Risks

  AUM declines caused by market pullbacks, contraction in valuation multiples, and customer asset inflows below expectations.

• Gemini Space Station Inc. (GEMI)

  Crypto trading, custody, and staking company; rating remains Neutral.

  Strengths

  The $5.00 target price implies approximately 9% total return relative to the current price of $4.58.

  Weaknesses

  New average platform assets for 2Q26 were 13% below the previous forecast, the target price was lowered from $5.25 to $5.00, and earnings remain negative.

  Comparison

  Compared with COIN, GEMI is smaller and faces more pronounced earnings pressure.

  Risks

  Insufficient trading volumes, declining platform assets, widening losses, and competitive pressure.

• Galaxy Digital Inc. (GLXY)

  Related to asset-management AUM, Treasury and Corporate assets under management, and trading volumes; rating remains Neutral.

  Strengths

  The $28 target price implies approximately 8% total return relative to the current price of $25.86. The sum-of-the-parts valuation retains support from data-center and corporate-segment valuations.

  Weaknesses

  2Q26E revenue was reduced from the previous GSe of $80mn to -$18mn, while the target price was lowered from $31 to $28.

  Comparison

  It has the weakest near-term revenue revision in the coverage group and is materially affected by digital-asset gains and losses.

  Risks

  Volatility in digital-asset gains and losses, declining AUM, weak trading activity, and compression of segment valuation multiples.

• eToro Group (ETOR)

  Brokerage and trading platform stock; rating remains Neutral.

  Strengths

  The $42 target price is unchanged, while 2026E through 2028E EPS were modestly raised, reflecting relatively stable model adjustments.

  Weaknesses

  Total return relative to the current price of $40.40 is approximately 4%, leaving limited upside.

  Comparison

  Compared with stocks carrying higher crypto beta, ETOR's forecast revisions are more stable, but its target return is the lowest.

  Risks

  Declining trading activity, modest compression in valuation multiples, and slowing customer growth.

Key data

• 2Q26 total crypto market capitalizationDown 12% quarter over quarterData as of 06/30/26.
• 2Q26 average industry trading volumesDown approximately 23% quarter over quarterDespite an 18% month-over-month rebound in June, average quarterly trading volumes remained weak.
• Ending USDC balanceDown 5% quarter over quarterAverage balance increased 2% quarter over quarter.
• Change in median 2Q26E revenue for the coverage group-3%Relative to Goldman Sachs' previous forecast.
• Change in median 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS-3%/+3%/+4%Reflects the combined result of revenue, interest-rate-curve, and company-model adjustments.
• Change in median target P/EDown 2.0xPrimarily due to lower market valuation multiples.
• Median total return for the coverage group+22%Based on the updated target prices and current prices in the report.

Impact & implications

The near-term impact is cautious: declining crypto trading volumes and market capitalization weigh on 2Q26 revenue, particularly trading, custody, staking, stablecoin, and digital-asset gains-and-losses items. The medium-term impact is not uniformly negative: Goldman Sachs raised median 2027E and 2028E EPS and still sees +22% median sector total return after lowering target prices. For investors, the report is more a quarterly data calibration than a fundamental shift in coverage views. The key distinction is between companies with high exposure to crypto beta and those supported by non-crypto markets, the interest-rate curve, or platform assets.

Risks

• A further decline in total crypto market capitalization could put additional pressure on custody, staking, platform assets, and digital-asset gains and losses.
• If the rebound in industry trading volumes following June does not continue, trading revenue could remain below expectations.
• Stablecoin balances or USDC-related revenue could fall below model assumptions.
• Further downward revisions to market valuation multiples could create additional pressure for target-price reductions.
• Regulatory changes, disclosure rules, and compliance requirements could affect crypto platforms, stablecoin issuers, and brokerage businesses.
• Changes in the forward interest-rate curve could alter net interest income, stablecoin reserve yields, and valuation assumptions.

What to watch

• The trend in total crypto market capitalization and major-token prices in 3Q26.
• Whether industry trading volumes sustain the 18% month-over-month rebound seen in June.
• Whether the divergence between ending and average USDC balances narrows.
• Disclosures on custody, staking, platform assets, and digital-asset gains and losses from COIN, BTGO, GEMI, and GLXY.
• The sensitivity of CRCL stablecoin revenue and reserve income to changes in the interest-rate curve.
• Whether valuation multiples such as target P/E and EV/EBITDA continue to contract.