China's methanol import and export prices rose both month over month and year over year in April

Overview

This report focuses on China's methanol import and export volume and price data for April 2026. The key message is that import volume remained below the same period last year but recovered month over month, while year-to-date imports were modestly above last year's level. At the same time, both import and export prices posted notable month-over-month and year-over-year gains, indicating a significantly stronger methanol trade price environment in April than in March.

Core views

The report does not present a clear equity investment rating; instead, it uses monthly trade data to describe the state of the methanol market. On the import side, April volume was 563kt, down 29% year over year but up 29% month over month, suggesting improved near-term import demand or arrival timing. On the price side, the import price rose 32% month over month to $365/ton, while the export price rose 25% month over month to $483/ton. Price strength was clearly stronger than volume changes and is the main signal in this data commentary.

Analysis framework

The report uses monthly import and export volumes, month-over-month changes, year-over-year changes, and price comparisons, with a focus on comparing April 2026, March 2026, and April 2025, and supplementing this with year-to-date cumulative import volume versus the same period in 2025.

Methodology notes

• commodity_trade_trackingMonthly import/export volume and price tracking

  Assess methanol trade conditions by comparing month-over-month and year-over-year changes in import volume, export volume, import price, and export price.

  This framework is suitable for tracking short-cycle supply-demand and price changes in chemicals, but a single month's data may be affected by shipping schedules, inventories, seasonality, and trade timing, and therefore cannot be equated with a long-term trend on its own.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Methanol

  Core tracking object of the report

  Strengths

  In April, both import and export prices rose month over month and year over year; export volume also increased materially versus both March and the same period last year.

  Weaknesses

  Import volume in April was still down 29% year over year, indicating that the recovery in volume was not even.

  Comparison

  The import price rose from $277/t in March 2026 to $365/t in April 2026; the export price rose from $354/t in April 2025 to $483/t in April 2026.

  Risks

  Monthly trade data may be affected by shipping schedules, seasonality, inventory adjustments, and regional arbitrage windows, so higher prices do not necessarily imply a sustainable trend.

Key data

• China methanol import volume in April 2026563ktDown 29% year over year from 788kt in April 2025, but up 29% month over month from 438kt in March 2026.
• China methanol import volume year to date in 20262,969ktUp 4% from the same period in 2025.
• China methanol import price in April 2026$365/tUp 32% month over month from $277/t in March 2026 and up 22% year over year; the average import price in 2025 was $279/t.
• China methanol export volume in April 2026173ktAbove 66kt in March 2026 and 54kt in April 2025.
• China methanol export price in April 2026$483/tUp 25% month over month from March 2026 and up 37% year over year from $354/t in April 2025.

Impact & implications

The simultaneous increase in methanol import and export prices may indicate support from regional price spreads, offshore prices, or tighter domestic supply-demand conditions at the margin. For methanol producers or companies with export exposure, stronger pricing may improve revenue elasticity; for downstream buyers, higher import prices may raise cost pressure. However, the report does not provide inventory, operating rate, downstream demand, or margin data, so the impact on earnings still needs to be validated with subsequent industry chain data.

Risks

• Import volume was still materially lower year over year, which may indicate ongoing uncertainty on the demand, arrival, or supply side.
• Rapid increases in import and export prices may compress downstream margins and affect subsequent purchasing pace.
• The data disclosed in the report are limited and do not include inventories, operating rates, downstream demand, or corporate margin information.
• The sharp increase in monthly export volume may include one-off trade timing factors, and it remains to be seen whether this persists in subsequent months.

What to watch

• Whether China's methanol import volume continues to recover month over month in subsequent months.
• Whether the import price can remain above the 2025 average level.
• Whether the higher export volume is sustainable and how the spread between export and import prices evolves.
• Changes in domestic methanol inventories, downstream operating rates, and margins of major producers.