J.P. Morgan releases weekly analysis of EM USD 10s30s spread curves

Overview

This is a weekly report on EM USD 10s30s spread curves published by teams related to J.P. Morgan Global Markets Strategy / Global Index Research, dated June 16, 2026. The report states that this weekly version will be updated regularly and can be accessed via jpmorganmarkets and the EM Daily Analytics Package; the monthly version will continue to be published separately and will include commentary.

Core views

The core of the report is not to propose a single directional trading recommendation, but to establish a tracking framework for EM USD credit 10s30s curves. Its focus includes curve slope, spread levels, credit ratings, regional differences, index differences, and the magnitude of steepening or flattening over a one-week period, thereby helping investors identify changes in term structure and relative value.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a data-dashboard style analysis: it first provides an overview of aggregate EM 10s30s spread curves, then breaks down the relationship between slope and spread levels by region, index, and credit rating, and further lists the steepest/flattest curves and the markets with the largest weekly changes. The report also provides Bloomberg data access points and links to rules/methodology for ongoing tracking.

Methodology notes

• Fixed Income Curve Analysis10s30s Spread Curve

  Compares the slope between 10-year and 30-year credit spreads or related curve points to observe term premium, credit risk pricing, and curve shape at the long end relative to shorter maturities.

  The report centers on EM USD 10s30s curves, analyzing the relationship between curve slope and spread levels, regions, indexes, and credit ratings.

• Emerging Markets Credit ResearchRegional and Index Group Comparison

  Compares curve shapes across Asia, CEEMEA, Latin America, and different index groupings.

  The table of contents shows that the report separately analyzes the relationship between slope and spread levels by region and by index, and lists 10s30s curves for each region.

• Relative Value and Risk IdentificationSteepest/Flattest and Weekly Change Screening

  Identifies relative value and potential market dislocations by screening for the steepest, flattest, and largest one-week steepening/flattening curves.

  The report contents include “Steepest and Flattest 10s30s Spread Curves in EM Credit” and “Largest 1-Week Steepening and Flattening”.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• EM USD credit bonds

  Core covered asset

  Strengths

  The report provides weekly updates, regional and index groupings, credit-rating relationships, and curve-move screening, helping systematically track the term structure of EM USD credit.

  Weaknesses

  The input text does not disclose specific numerical tables or curve rankings by market, so it is not possible to determine which specific issuers/countries are currently the most attractive or riskiest.

  Comparison

  Compared with single-bond research, this report is more focused on cross-sectional comparison at the index and curve level.

  Risks

  Curve shapes may be jointly affected by interest rates, credit spreads, liquidity, index composition, and short-term technical factors, and therefore cannot alone serve as an investment conclusion.

• EM sovereign and quasi-sovereign credit

  Methodology-related asset

  Strengths

  The disclosure's EM sovereign research rating framework explains that J.P. Morgan uses an Overweight, Marketweight, and Underweight framework over a three-month horizon to assess issuers.

  Weaknesses

  This report does not provide specific sovereign issuer rating changes or recommendations.

  Comparison

  Unlike issuer rating reports, this report mainly serves market observation at the curve and index level.

  Risks

  Changes in sovereign credit fundamentals, technical factors, and relative value may lead to rapid curve repricing.

Key data

• Report Date2026-06-16Both the main text and disclosure pages show the date as 16 June 2026.
• Update FrequencyweeklyThe report states that the weekly analytics version will be updated every week.
• Coverage TopicEM USD 10s30s Spread CurveCovers EM USD credit 10s30s spread curves.
• Regional DimensionAsia; CEEMEA; Latin AmericaThe table of contents lists curve sections for the relevant regions.

Impact & implications

The significance of this report for EM USD bond investors lies in providing a standardized curve-monitoring framework. If a given market curve steepens or flattens significantly, it may reflect changes in long-end risk compensation, credit expectations, liquidity, or technical factors, thereby affecting duration allocation, curve trades, and relative value screening.

Risks

• The report provides informational and analytical material and does not constitute an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments.
• Market prices, index data, and third-party data may be incomplete or subject to change.
• Historical performance and backtesting do not represent future returns.
• When sanctioned securities or related issuers are involved, investors must comply with legal and compliance obligations on their own.
• Curve analysis may be affected by liquidity, index composition, rating changes, and macro interest-rate volatility.

What to watch

• Changes in the level and slope of the aggregate EM 10s30s curve after each weekly update.
• Differences in curve slope among Asia, CEEMEA, and Latin America.
• Whether the relationship between slope and credit ratings shows unusual deviations.
• Whether the list of the steepest and flattest 10s30s curves changes.
• The markets with the largest weekly steepening and flattening, especially whether they are driven by credit events, liquidity, or macro interest rates.