Divergence in China NEV Orders Continues, with Mass-Market Strength and Cooling at Premium Automakers
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Divergence in China NEV Orders Continues, with Mass-Market Strength and Cooling at Premium Automakers
BYD, Leapmotor, and Geely Galaxy posted relatively strong orders, while premium-related brands such as Li Auto and HIMA retreated after recent new-product-driven highs.
- BYD orders were approximately 74,800 to 75,300 vehicles, up 8% week over week; Denza orders rose 28%.
- Leapmotor orders were approximately 19,800 to 20,300 vehicles, up 29% week over week; A-series orders rose 72%.
- Li Auto orders were approximately 8,500 to 8,700 vehicles, down 30% week over week; HIMA orders were approximately 8,800 to 9,000 vehicles, down 27%.
- Consumers may wait for new vehicle launches and promotional events at the Chengdu Auto Show on August 21.
Report interpretation
Overview
Morgan Stanley tracked China NEV channel orders from August 10 to 16, 2026, and believes the market's pattern of order divergence continued. Following the week disrupted by typhoons, order resilience expanded among certain mass-market brands, while most major premium NEV manufacturers pulled back from order peaks generated by recent new product launches.
Core views
In the mass market, BYD was supported by Denza and the Dynasty series, Leapmotor by the A series, and Geely Galaxy maintained resilience. Among premium and new-product-driven brands, HIMA declined after its order peak following the launch of the Maextro V series, while Li Auto saw a relatively large order decline; NIO, Tesla China, and XPeng also faced pressure in year-over-year or month-over-month order performance.
Analysis framework
Based on aggregated dealer and channel feedback, the report compiles order ranges for major NEV brands during the specified week and compares them with the prior week, prior month, and the same period last year to identify demand divergence across brands and price segments.
Methodology notes
Weekly Order Momentum Comparison
Dealer and channel feedback is used to estimate order ranges for each brand and calculate week-over-week, month-over-month, and year-over-year changes; this metric reflects order momentum and is not equivalent to deliveries or end-market registrations.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- BYD Company Limited（1211.HK/002594.SZ）Weekly orders increased
- Strengths
- Overall orders rose 8% week over week, with Denza and the Ocean/Dynasty series both contributing incremental volume.
- Weaknesses
- Orders declined 3% year over year and were flat month over month.
- Comparison
- It leads tracked automakers in order scale, with short-term performance outperforming most premium NEV peers.
- Risks
- Promotions, product cycles, and industry competition may affect order sustainability.
- Geely Automobile Holdings（0175.HK）Geely Galaxy order resilience continued
- Strengths
- Orders rose 9% week over week.
- Weaknesses
- Orders declined 6% month over month.
- Comparison
- It maintained relatively solid resilience among mass-market brands.
- Risks
- Monthly demand softness and intensifying competition.
- XPeng Inc.（9868.HK/XPEV.N）Modest weekly order improvement
- Strengths
- Orders rose 5% week over week, and L03 orders increased.
- Weaknesses
- Orders declined 63% month over month.
- Comparison
- Weekly improvement was offset by weaker monthly momentum than that of stronger-performing mass-market brands.
- Risks
- The sustainability of new-product orders and market competition.
- Li Auto Inc.（2015.HK/LI.O）Significant order decline
- Strengths
- Year-over-year orders were broadly flat.
- Weaknesses
- Orders declined 30% week over week and 27% month over month.
- Comparison
- Short-term order momentum was weaker than BYD, Leapmotor, and Geely Galaxy.
- Risks
- Premium demand volatility, product cycles, and competitive pressure.
- NIO Inc.（9866.HK/NIO.N）Moderate order decline
- Strengths
- Orders grew 11% year over year.
- Weaknesses
- Orders declined 4% week over week and 14% month over month.
- Comparison
- Year-over-year performance was relatively strong, but short-term momentum lagged mass-market brands with rising orders.
- Risks
- The pace of demand recovery and premium-market competition.
- Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance（HIMA）Orders declined after the new-product peak
- Strengths
- AITO orders rose 6% week over week.
- Weaknesses
- Overall HIMA orders declined 27% week over week.
- Comparison
- This contrasts with strengthening mass-market orders.
- Risks
- There is uncertainty around subsequent demand absorption after the initial order peak following the Maextro V series launch.
Key data
- BYD Orders74,800 to 75,300 vehiclesUp 8% week over week, flat month over month, and down 3% year over year; Denza was approximately 3,700 vehicles, up 28% week over week.
- Leapmotor Orders19,800 to 20,300 vehiclesUp 29% week over week, 32% month over month, and 52% year over year; A-series orders rose 72% week over week.
- Geely Galaxy Orders17,300 to 17,800 vehiclesUp 9% week over week and down 6% month over month.
- Li Auto Orders8,500 to 8,700 vehiclesDown 30% week over week and 27% month over month, and flat year over year.
- HIMA Orders8,800 to 9,000 vehiclesDown 27% week over week and 6% month over month; AITO was approximately 5,100 to 5,200 vehicles, up 6% week over week.
- XPeng Orders8,900 to 9,100 vehiclesUp 5% week over week, down 63% month over month, and up 5% year over year; L03 orders increased.
- NIO Orders9,100 to 9,300 vehiclesDown 4% week over week and 14% month over month, and up 11% year over year.
- Tesla China Orders9,000 to 9,200 vehiclesUp 13% week over week, down 10% month over month, and down 25% year over year.
Impact & implications
Short-term demand signals indicate that product and promotional timing is intensifying divergence among brands. Automakers supported by new products or strong product lineups in the mass market show greater order resilience, while premium automakers face normalization pressure after initial new-product-launch order surges fade. Wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the Chengdu Auto Show may leave short-term orders driven by launches and promotional catalysts.
Risks
- Channel-feedback estimates may differ from actual orders, deliveries, or registrations.
- Weekly orders are significantly affected by short-term factors such as new product launches, promotions, weather, and consumer wait-and-see behavior.
- Product launches and pricing strategy changes around the Chengdu Auto Show may rapidly alter the order landscape.
- Intensifying competition in the NEV industry may pressure pricing, profitability, and the stability of brand demand.
What to watch
- New vehicle launches, promotions, and consumer feedback during the Chengdu Auto Show on August 21.
- The sustainability of orders for BYD's Denza, Dynasty, and Ocean series.
- The continuation of orders for Leapmotor's A series and XPeng's L03.
- Whether HIMA can stabilize demand after the Maextro V series order peak.
- Whether orders for premium or mainstream brands including Li Auto, NIO, and Tesla China stabilize.