2026 Week 28 China new energy vehicles: Passenger vehicle retail decline narrowed, and Nio/Leapmotor/XPeng weekly orders improved

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' China New Energy Vehicle weekly chartbook, focusing on Week 28 of 2026 key new energy vehicle brand orders, passenger vehicle retail and wholesale, terminal dealer discounts, and upstream battery material prices. The key conclusion is that while new energy vehicle orders remain under pressure, passenger vehicle retail yoy decline has narrowed, and some new-force brands have improved weekly orders, while short-term demand and new launch catalysts still need continued monitoring.

Core views

Total weekly orders of key new energy vehicle manufacturers in Week 28 fell 16% week-over-week and 19% year-over-year. However, there was marginal improvement on the passenger vehicle retail side: passenger vehicle retail declined 15% yoy from July 1 to July 5, narrowing the decline versus the 20% yoy decline in the first half of 2026. At the brand level, Nio, Leapmotor, and XPeng stood out, with weekly orders up 13%, 10%, and 5%, respectively; from year-to-date, Nio, HIMA, and Tesla were relatively defensive, with orders up 98%, 28%, and down 1% year-over-year. On the pricing side, both new energy vehicle and ICE dealer discounts widened, indicating continued intense terminal competition. Upstream, battery-grade lithium carbonate price fell 7.3% week-over-week, while LFP and NCM prismatic cell prices remained stable.

Analysis framework

The report uses a weekly high-frequency tracking framework, combining key new energy vehicle brand orders, CPCA passenger vehicle and new energy vehicle retail/wholesale data, dealer discount tracking, and battery material prices to assess short-term demand, competitive dynamics, and cost changes in the China new energy vehicle industry.

Methodology notes

• Industry high-frequency monitoringWeekly order and retail/wholesale monitoring

  Track marginal demand changes through brand weekly orders and CPCA retail/wholesale data.

  Order data reflects short-term demand and the impact of new model launches, while CPCA retail and wholesale data are used to cross-check trends in terminal sales and channel deliveries.

• Price competition analysisDealer discount tracking

  Measure terminal price pressure using average dealer discounts relative to MSRP.

  When discounts for both new energy vehicles and ICE vehicles widen, it usually means terminal competition is intensifying and could pressure OEM margins.

• Cost chain trackingUpstream battery price dynamics

  Track battery-grade lithium carbonate and cell price changes.

  A decline in lithium carbonate may ease materials cost pressure, but stable cell prices mean cost pass-through and battery segment pricing still require further monitoring.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Chinese new energy vehicle manufacturer stocks

  Core tracking focus

  Strengths

  Some brands such as Nio, Leapmotor, and XPeng saw weekly order improvements, and Nio and HIMA showed relatively strong year-to-date orders; Tesla showed relatively defensive yoy performance.

  Weaknesses

  Total weekly orders of key manufacturers still declined 16% yoy and 19% year-over-year, and recovery in industry demand is not yet firm.

  Comparison

  In Week 28, Nio, Leapmotor, and XPeng outperformed most key brands on a week-over-week basis; Nio, HIMA, and Tesla were relatively defensive on year-to-date orders.

  Risks

  High-base decline after new launches, price war, expansion of terminal discounts, and mismatch between wholesale and retail growth.

• Battery and upstream materials chain

  Cost and supply-chain variable

  Strengths

  Falling battery-grade lithium carbonate prices may reduce materials cost pressure.

  Weaknesses

  Cell prices were stable week-over-week, and the transmission of lower materials prices to terminal profits remains unclear.

  Comparison

  The decline in lithium carbonate price was larger than changes in LFP and NCM prismatic cell prices.

  Risks

  Raw material price volatility, inventory cycles, and OEM markdown pressure offsetting cost improvements.

• ICE and NEV dealer channels

  Terminal price competition monitoring window

  Strengths

  Discount data provide high-frequency signals on price competition.

  Weaknesses

  Discounts for both new energy vehicles and ICE expanded, indicating sustained terminal promotional pressure.

  Comparison

  As of July 11, ICE average discount was 20.11%, significantly higher than NEV 7.29%.

  Risks

  Wider discounts can compress channel and OEM margins and may delay consumer purchase decisions.

Key data

• Weekly orders of key new energy manufacturers-16% wow / -19% yoyWeek 28 of 2026, July 6 to July 12.
• Passenger vehicle retail volume169k units, -15% yoy / +4% momCPCA data, July 1-5, 2026.
• Passenger vehicle wholesale volume127k units, -35% yoy / -13% momCPCA data, July 1-5, 2026.
• New energy vehicle retail volume103k units, -9% yoy / -6% momCPCA data, July 1-5, 2026.
• New energy vehicle wholesale volume83k units, -20% yoy / -15% momCPCA data, July 1-5, 2026.
• New energy vehicle penetration rate60.5% retail / 66.5% wholesaleJuly 1-5; June was 62.8%/63.4%.
• Nio / Leapmotor / XPeng weekly orders+13% / +10% / +5% wowNio was mainly driven by the July 9 launch of the five-seat ES8.
• Nio / HIMA / Tesla year-to-date orders yoy+98% / +28% / -1% yoyThe report says these three showed relatively defensive performance.
• Average new energy vehicle dealer discount7.29% of MSRPAs of July 11, 2026; July 4 was 7.17%, July 7, 2025 was 7.95%.
• BYD average dealer discount4.10% of MSRPAs of July 11, 2026; July 4 was 4.10%, July 7, 2025 was 5.56%.
• ICE average dealer discount20.11% of MSRPAs of July 11, 2026; July 4 was 20.01%, July 7, 2025 was 22.12%.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb153k/ton, -7.3% wowPrismatic LFP and NCM cell prices were stable week-over-week.

Impact & implications

For investment judgment, the data this week sends a mixed signal of improving marginal demand and ongoing competitive pressure. The narrowing passenger vehicle retail decline and partial improvement in certain new-force orders help ease concerns about weak demand, but total weekly orders across key new energy vehicle manufacturers still declined year-over-year and week-over-week, and expanding terminal discounts show that price competition has not yet ended. Downstream lithium carbonate declines may improve the cost side, but if OEM pricing pressure persists, profit recovery will still depend on demand, product mix, and pricing discipline.

Risks

• Weekly and year-over-year orders of key new energy vehicle brands continue to decline, so demand recovery may remain unstable.
• Widening dealer discounts for both NEVs and ICE vehicles mean price competition could keep pressuring profitability.
• Order support following new model launches may be short-term, and its conversion and durability need verification.
• Wholesale volume is dropping faster than retail volume, which may reflect channel shipment pacing or inventory management pressure.
• Battery material price volatility may affect supply-chain profit allocation and market expectations.

What to watch

• Monitor BYD Denza Z pre-sale on July 13, with entry price Rmb680k.
• XPeng formal launch of MONA L03 on July 16.
• Li Auto launches L6 facelift on July 16.
• Leapmotor releases B01/B10 facelifts on July 16.
• WAIC opens in Shanghai on July 17.
• Watch weekly orders of newly launched models on July 21.
• Xiaomi holds the SkyNomad technology event on July 30.
• NEV manufacturer monthly sales are released on August 1.
• From August 10-11, CPCA releases passenger vehicle/NEV industry and segment-level wholesale and retail data.