Nomura forecasts the USD/CNY fixing at 6.8077

Overview

This report is a brief USD/CNY fixing model forecast published by Nomura Asia FX Strategy. Its core content is a model forecast for the next RMB fixing against the US dollar, compared with the previous model forecast, the previous fixing, and the previous official spot close. The main body of the report is brief, with most of the remaining content consisting of research disclosures, valuation methodology, and disclaimers.

Core views

Nomura's model forecasts the USD/CNY fixing at 6.8077, 89 pips lower than the previous forecast of 6.8166, but 80 pips higher than the previous official spot close. Including the counter-cyclical factor, the model forecast is 6.8120, 46 pips lower than the previous fixing. The result indicates that RMB fixing pricing should continue to be assessed based on the combined contributions of the model basket, the official spot close, the counter-cyclical factor, and policy signals.

Analysis framework

The report uses Nomura's USD/CNY fixing model to track major overnight weighted contributions, recent model errors, daily changes in the USD/CNY fixing, and the macro event calendar. The approach combines an FX pricing model with event monitoring rather than focusing on company fundamentals.

Methodology notes

• FX modelUSD/CNY fixing model

  Fixing model forecast

  Estimates the USD/CNY fixing through a model and compares the point differentials with the previous model forecast, the previous official fixing, and the previous official spot close.

• Policy adjustment factorCounter-cyclical factor adjustment

  Counter-cyclical factor

  The report separately discloses the model forecast including the counter-cyclical factor at 6.8120, reflecting the potential impact of policy adjustment factors on fixing pricing.

• Event analysisMacro event calendar

  Chinese macro policy event calendar

  The report lists events including Politburo meetings, the Central Economic Work Conference, APEC meetings, and high-level China-US interactions to highlight monitoring windows that may affect the RMB exchange rate and policy expectations.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• USD/CNY

  Directly covered instrument

  Strengths

  The report provides a clear model forecast and compares its point differentials with the previous value and the official spot close, making it suitable for tracking daily deviations in the fixing.

  Weaknesses

  The disclosed drivers are limited, and chart values are not fully presented in the text, preventing independent verification of the weighting contributions of each factor.

  Comparison

  The current forecast of 6.8077 is below the previous model forecast of 6.8166 but approximately 80 pips above the previous official spot close.

  Risks

  The actual fixing may be affected by policy guidance, the counter-cyclical factor, USD movements, market liquidity, and unexpected macro events.

• CNH/CNY-related FX exposure

  Indirectly affected

  Strengths

  Changes in the fixing can affect expectations for onshore and offshore RMB and hedging costs.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide the CNH spread, forward points, or a specific trading strategy.

  Comparison

  Compared with focusing solely on the spot close, the fixing model places greater emphasis on policy pricing and basket factors.

  Risks

  The onshore-offshore spread may widen due to liquidity, capital flows, and policy communication.

Key data

• USD/CNY model forecast6.807789 pips lower than the previous model forecast of 6.8166.
• Previous model forecast6.8166Serves as the benchmark for the change in the current model forecast.
• Relative to previous official spot close80 pips higherImplies a previous official spot close of approximately 6.7997.
• Model forecast including the counter-cyclical factor6.812046 pips lower than the previous fixing.
• Report date2026-06-29The filename and document metadata date are shown as 20260629.
• Lead analystsCraig Chan; Wee Choon Teo; Vicky Chen; Manthan ShingalaNomura Asia FX Strategy team.

Impact & implications

The forecast is relevant to short-term RMB pricing, expectations for offshore and onshore RMB trading, and Asian FX risk management. If the actual fixing deviates significantly from the model forecast, this may reflect changes in policy guidance, counter-cyclical adjustment, or market supply and demand. Subsequent Chinese macro policy meetings may also affect the USD/CNY trajectory if they signal support for growth or exchange-rate stability.

Risks

• The model forecast is not the official fixing, and the actual fixing may deviate due to policy adjustment or abnormal market volatility.
• The counter-cyclical factor is subject to estimation uncertainty; the report provides only the results with and without the factor.
• Chart details were not fully transcribed, so the complete overnight contributions and recent errors cannot be verified from the text.
• Key Chinese policy meetings, China-US interactions, and USD movements may change the short-term trading environment for the RMB.
• The report's disclaimer states that forecasts and simulations are not reliable indicators of future performance.

What to watch

• Whether the published USD/CNY fixing is close to 6.8077 or 6.8120.
• The direction and magnitude of the actual fixing's deviation from the model forecast.
• Whether the counter-cyclical factor continues to influence fixing pricing.
• The July 2026 Politburo economic work meeting's language on economic policy and exchange-rate stability.
• Signals on macro policy priorities from the December 2026 Central Economic Work Conference and Politburo meeting.
• Changes in the US dollar index, Asian FX risk appetite, and the onshore-offshore RMB spread.