MetaX 1Q26 meets guidance; GPU volume ramp and AI model adaptation support a buy rating

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs’ commentary on MetaX’s results. MetaX 1Q26 revenue and net loss were in line with guidance, with revenue up 75% year-over-year to Rmb562m and net loss narrowing from Rmb233m in 1Q25 to Rmb99m. Goldman Sachs believes that the ramp of C500/C550 GPU products, customer validation of the next-generation C600 platform, and adaptation to multiple AI models are the core drivers of the company’s future growth.

Core views

Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating, with the core view that MetaX, as a domestic GPU leader, has strengths in general-purpose GPU cards, full-stack solutions, proprietary architecture, and GPU IP. In the near term, 1Q26 revenue, loss, and gross margin performance validate product scaling; in the medium-to-long term, AI agents and AI applications are expected to push up training and inference spending, which will lift next-generation GPU platform revenue.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes quarterly performance, revisions to earnings forecasts, product ramp progress, AI model adaptation status, and discounted EV/EBITDA valuation. Goldman Sachs cut 2026E earnings by 41%, but raised 2028E to 2030E earnings by 3%, 4%, and 3%, mainly reflecting an upward revision to next-generation GPU platform revenue expectations.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodology2030E discounted EV/EBITDA

  Multiply 2030E EBITDA by the target EV/EBITDA multiple and discount it to 2027E to capture long-term growth value.

  Goldman Sachs used a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 68x, a 12.7% cost of equity, 1.5 beta, 3.0% risk-free rate, and 6.5% equity risk premium to derive a 12-month target price of Rmb912.

• Research frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Compares a stock’s characteristics versus the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors.

  Growth is based on forward revenue, EBITDA, and EPS growth; financial returns are based on ROE, ROCE, and CROCI; valuation multiples are based on P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA, and similar metrics.

• Scenario and event frameworkM&A Rank

  Goldman uses a 1-to-3 scale to assess the likelihood of a company becoming an acquisition target.

  MetaX disclosed an M&A rank of 3, indicating a lower probability of being an acquisition target, which is typically not reflected in the target price.

• Data toolQuantum

  Goldman’s proprietary database for sourcing historical financials, forecasts, and ratios.

  It can be used for in-depth single-company analysis as well as cross-industry and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• MetaX 688802.SS

  Core covered name

  Strengths

  A domestic GPU leader with general-purpose GPU cards, full-stack solutions, proprietary architecture, and GPU IP; C500/C550 are ramping, and the C600 platform has entered customer validation with multiple clients; the GPU platform has been adapted to multiple mainstream AI models.

  Weaknesses

  The company remains in a profit ramp-up phase, with net loss in 1Q26; R&D spending and operating expenses are still high.

  Comparison

  Goldman Sachs derived target multiples using peer-average transaction EV/EBITDA, forward EBITDA growth, and EBITDA margin; MetaX is benchmarked within the Greater China Technology coverage framework.

  Risks

  Lower-than-expected growth in Chinese cloud capital expenditure, stronger-than-expected competition in AI chips, and constraints in advanced-node supply chains.

Key data

• 1Q26 revenueRmb562mUp 75% year-over-year and up 38% quarter-over-quarter, in line with guidance.
• 1Q26 net lossRmb99mNarrowed materially from Rmb233m net loss in 1Q25 and was within the company’s net loss guidance range.
• 1Q26 gross margin60.1%Above Goldman Sachs’ 55.5% expectation, supported by scale-up in GPU products.
• 12-month target priceRmb912Previously Rmb804, based on the 2030E discounted EV/EBITDA method.
• Current priceRmb784.00The chart notes the close on 2026-05-08.
• Target EV/EBITDA multiple68xPreviously 62x, applied to 2030E EBITDA.
• Cost of equity12.7%Assumptions include beta 1.5, risk-free rate 3.0%, and market risk premium 6.5%.
• 2026E revenue estimateRmb4,415mForecast table shows 2026E revenue up 169% year-over-year.
• 2028E revenue estimateRmb21,173mForecast table shows 2028E revenue up 104% year-over-year.

Impact & implications

The implication is broadly constructive: MetaX’s GPU ramp and progress in AI model adaptation strengthen the domestic AI chip growth thesis, 1Q26 results meeting expectations reduce near-term execution risk, and the target price increase reflects Goldman Sachs’ higher confidence in next-generation GPU platforms and long-term revenue growth. However, valuation still relies on high long-term growth and elevated multiples, and supply chain, cloud capex, and competitive dynamics remain key constraints.

Risks

• Chinese cloud capital expenditure growth is slower than expected.
• AI chip competition is more intense than expected.
• Advanced-node supply-chain constraints.
• The company is still transitioning from losses to profitability, and the realization of long-term profits remains uncertain.
• The target price is sensitive to assumptions on 2030E EBITDA, the 68x valuation multiple, and discounting.

What to watch

• Progress of C600 platform customer validation and the ramp-up pace starting in 2026.
• Shipment growth and gross margin sustainability of C500/C550 GPU products.
• Growth in training and inference demand from AI agents and AI applications.
• Changes in Chinese cloud vendors’ capital expenditures.
• Availability of advanced-node supply chains.
• Execution of 2026E to 2030E forecasts for revenue, EBITDA, and net profit.