Nomura: Orbbec's Data Collection Business Opens New Growth Trajectory; Target Price Raised to RMB 130

Overview

This report, published by Nomura Securities, focuses on Orbbec (688322) and its business expansion amid the embodied AI wave. The report highlights data collection as a new growth engine independent of traditional robotics modules, alongside strategic collaboration with Creality to deepen its 3D printing platform footprint. Based on this, the firm maintains its 'Buy' rating and raises the target price from RMB 115 to RMB 130.

Core views

The report argues that data collection represents one of the fastest-growing demand pools in the embodied AI value chain, with 2026 serving as a critical inflection point for dedicated acquisition hardware and Data-as-a-Service (DaaS) models. Industry surveys indicate that teleoperation devices and UMI-type systems are scaling from hundreds to thousands of units, driving demand for embedded 3D vision, IMU, and RGB-D sensors. This market constitutes a genuine new TAM for Orbbec: budgets are independently allocated by model developers and integrators, while end customers (data vendors, large-model labs, simulation firms) and application scenarios (motion capture, operational datasets, sim-to-real validation) represent entirely new domains previously untapped by the company, significantly expanding its service boundaries. On the partnership front, Orbbec and Creality announced an enhanced strategic collaboration on May 29, 2026, to co-establish a '3D Scanning Digital Innovation Center' and launch a '3D Printing AI Vision Intelligence Platform' integrating Orbbec’s full-stack 3D perception and in-house chips with Creality’s global ecosystem of printers/scanners across more than 140 countries. The report views this as a second growth engine, potentially attracting consumer clients seeking integrated scan-to-print solutions and expanding its user base. Financial forecasts have been revised upward accordingly: 2026 revenue forecast raised from RMB 1.61 billion to RMB 1.806 billion, and 2027 revenue forecast significantly increased from RMB 2.603 billion to RMB 3.964 billion; 2027 net profit attributable to shareholders raised from RMB 595 million to RMB 869 million. Growth drivers clearly stem from data collection, 3D printing, and synergies with robotics businesses.

Analysis framework

The report follows a logical framework of 'New Market Identification → Partnership Empowerment → Financial Validation → Valuation Anchoring': first establishing the standalone TAM nature of data collection through industry research and analysis of end customers/scenarios; then evaluating the partnership’s impact on consumer use cases; subsequently updating revenue and profit forecasts based on business progress; and finally applying a Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, incorporating historical valuation ranges and growth outlook to determine the target price. The entire analysis closely tracks the evolution of the embodied AI supply chain and the company’s pace of technology commercialization.

Methodology notes

• Valuation MethodPS valuation

  Price-to-Sales (P/S) Valuation Method

  Based on forecasted sales revenue, a reasonable multiple is set by referencing the historical valuation mean and its volatility range (standard deviation). This report applies an 18x 2027E P/S multiple, which is 0.6 standard deviations below the 4-year historical average of 23x, reflecting prudent pricing amid high-growth expectations.

• Industry/Market Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Breakdown

  Total Addressable Market (TAM) Definition

  Market size is decomposed into independent demand sources, end customers, and application scenarios to assess whether it constitutes a genuinely incremental market. By analyzing budget sources (independently funded by model developers), customer segments, and use cases, the report confirms that the data collection business represents a new TAM created for Orbbec, rather than a shift from existing demand.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Orbbec (688322)

  Core beneficiary: data collection business opens new TAM; 3D printing platform collaboration expands consumer use cases

  Strengths

  Full-stack 3D perception technology, in-house chip capabilities, deeply integrated platform ecosystem with Creality, early-mover positioning in embodied AI data acquisition

  Risks

  Slower-than-expected ramp-up of robotics business; intensified industry competition pressuring pricing and market share; weak demand in biometrics

Key data

• Target PriceRMB 130Raised from previous RMB 115
• Current Share PriceRMB 111.47As of May 29, 2026
• Implied Upside+16.6%Calculated based on target price
• 2027E P/S Ratio18xValuation implied by target price, 0.6 standard deviations below historical average
• 2025–2028 Revenue CAGR62%Drivers: biometrics, 3D printing, robotics businesses
• 2027 Revenue ForecastRMB 3.964 billionSignificantly raised from prior forecast of RMB 2.603 billion

Impact & implications

The report notes that the data collection business and 3D printing platform collaboration will substantially broaden Orbbec’s market boundaries and customer structure, propelling revenue into a high-growth trajectory. The raised target price reflects institutional recognition of the company’s first-mover advantage in embodied AI data acquisition and 3D vision platforms. If execution meets expectations, the company stands to benefit continuously from high-growth segments such as robotic perception and consumer-grade 3D content generation.

Risks

• Robotics business scaling slower than expected
• Intensified industry competition exerting downward pressure on product pricing and market share
• Weakening demand in biometrics markets

What to watch

• Actual pace of expansion into 3D printing consumer segments
• Impact of DaaS (Data-as-a-Service) and teleoperation devices on sensor demand