Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Miniso, believing IP, product, and channel upgrades will continue to drive high-quality growth

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' commentary on Miniso's 4Q25 results and 2026 outlook. The company's 4Q25 revenue outperformed expectations, adjusted operating profit was slightly below Goldman Sachs' forecast, and adjusted net profit beat expectations because financial costs and taxes were lower than expected; however, reported net profit was affected by losses related to Yonghui and changes in the fair value of Top Toy's strategic financing redemption liabilities. Goldman Sachs believes the company still has a solid growth outlook, with IP, product upgrades, store experience optimization, and global market replication as the core drivers of future growth.

Core views

The core views are: first, Miniso's growth quality is increasingly driven by IP, product mix, and channel experience rather than relying solely on store count expansion; second, same-store sales growth in China and North America, store upgrades, and large-format store validation demonstrate a replicable model; third, ASEAN and Mexico face near-term pressure, but a diversified market footprint helps reduce single-market risk; fourth, although product mix, pricing strategy, and DTC expansion in overseas markets are weighing on near-term margins, Goldman Sachs still believes roughly 10x 2026E P/E does not fully reflect the company's global growth potential.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes 4Q25 actual results, deviations from Goldman Sachs' forecasts, management's 2026 guidance, regional operating trends, store network strategy, IP mix, and valuation multiples, using 15x 2026E P/E as the basis for the 12-month target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods2026E P/E target multiple

  Target price based on 15x 2026E P/E

  Goldman Sachs lowered the target price from US$25/HK$49 to US$21.3/HK$42, mainly because market sentiment and near-term margin compression still persist, and the target multiple was reduced from 17x to 15x.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentile comparison

  This framework compares a stock's growth, financial returns, and valuation multiples against Goldman Sachs' covered stocks and industry peers to provide an investment backdrop.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  M&A Rank 3

  M&A Rank 3 indicates a low probability of becoming a takeover target, around 0%-15%, and has no material impact on target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• MNSO.US

  Primary covered name; ADR

  Strengths

  Buy rating, 12-month target price of US$21.3, and 38.8% upside; revenue growth beat expectations, and IP plus overseas expansion provide growth optionality.

  Weaknesses

  2026-27E adjusted net profit forecasts were cut by 6%-8%, with pressure on near-term gross margin and expense ratios.

  Comparison

  At about 10x 2026E P/E, Goldman Sachs believes the stock is inexpensive relative to its solid growth outlook and global potential.

  Risks

  Declining store efficiency in China, slower-than-expected recovery in global same-store sales, geopolitical risk, higher-than-expected spending, and Yonghui's operating performance.

• 9896.HK

  H-share listing of the same company

  Strengths

  12-month target price of HK$42, current price of HK$30.76, and 36.5% upside.

  Weaknesses

  Shares the same operating risks and margin pressure as the ADR.

  Comparison

  Driven by the same company fundamentals and Goldman Sachs' Buy rating as MNSO.US.

  Risks

  Same-store sales, store expansion, spending, Yonghui-related gains and losses, and changes in market sentiment.

Key data

• 4Q25 total salesRmb6.25bn, up 33% YoYAbove Goldman Sachs' estimate of Rmb6.12bn and management guidance of 25%-30%.
• 4Q25 adjusted operating profitRmb1.06bn2% below Goldman Sachs' estimate, mainly due to a slightly higher-than-expected SG&A ratio.
• 4Q25 adjusted net profitRmb823mn3% above Goldman Sachs' estimate, benefiting from lower financial costs and taxes.
• 2026 revenue guidanceHigh double-digit YoY growthManagement expects the group's same-store sales to turn positive, with low-single-digit growth in both China and North America.
• 2026 net store opening plan510-550 storesAbout 120 in China and about 350 overseas.
• Yoyo proprietary IP sales targetUp to Rmb1bn in 2026About Rmb600mn in China and about Rmb200-400mn overseas.
• ValuationAbout 10x 2026E P/EGoldman Sachs believes current valuation does not fully reflect the solid growth outlook and global market potential.
• Target price and upsideUS$21.3/HK$42; 38.8%/36.5%For ADR and H-share, Buy rating maintained.

Impact & implications

The report is positive for Miniso's investment case: short-term margins are pressured by product mix, pricing strategy, overseas DTC expansion, and spending, but revenue growth, improved store efficiency, scaling of proprietary IP, and overseas replication capabilities support medium-term growth. If store upgrades, large-format stores, and IP operating experience in China and the U.S. can be replicated across ASEAN, Mexico, Europe, and other markets, the company's global growth potential may continue to be re-rated.

Risks

• Intensifying competition in China, slower product innovation, or product quality issues could hurt store efficiency and affect retail partners' willingness to expand.
• Recovery in global same-store sales growth and store expansion may be below expectations.
• Geopolitical risk.
• OPEX and incremental investment may be higher than expected.
• Yonghui's operating performance and related gains or losses may weigh on reported net profit.
• Product mix and pricing strategy may pressure gross margin, while a higher overseas DTC mix may temporarily drag margins.

What to watch

• Whether 1Q26 revenue can meet management's expectation of at least 25% YoY growth.
• Whether China can achieve high-single-digit same-store sales growth and North America can achieve mid- to high-double-digit same-store sales growth.
• The execution pace of the 2026 net opening plan of 510-550 stores, especially about 100 net new stores in the U.S. and about 350 net new stores overseas.
• Whether large-format stores and existing store upgrades continue to deliver 40%-50% sales uplift and advance the goal of upgrading 80% of the existing store base.
• The commercialization progress of Yoyo and the 30-40 proprietary IP pipeline, as well as the goal of a 50/50 mix between licensed IP and proprietary IP.
• Same-store sales inflection, cost control, and DTC margin improvement in ASEAN, Mexico, and Europe.
• Yonghui-related losses, fair-value changes related to Top Toy financing, and the Rmb850mn-Rmb900mn investment gain from the planned 1Q26 AI company IPO.