Airbus delivered 89 aircraft in June, ahead of Goldman Sachs expectations

Overview

This report focuses on Airbus' June 2026 order and delivery data. Airbus delivered 89 aircraft during the month, exceeding Goldman Sachs' tracking estimate of 82 and bringing year-to-date deliveries to 351 aircraft. The report views the delivery pace as strong, with the backlog level supporting the full-year forecast of 870 commercial aircraft deliveries.

Core views

The core view is that Airbus' delivery momentum is improving and order coverage remains solid, leading Goldman Sachs to maintain its Buy rating. June deliveries increased 41% year over year, while June deliveries accounted for 10.2% of the full-year forecast, slightly above the five-year seasonal average. On the order side, June gross orders totaled 71 aircraft, with 12 cancellations, leaving an ending backlog of 9,222 aircraft, primarily consisting of the A320-family.

Analysis framework

The report tracks monthly deliveries, cumulative year-to-date deliveries, seasonal proportions, orders and cancellations, backlog by aircraft type, and the full-year delivery forecast, and uses DCF valuation to derive the 12-month target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF

  Discounted cash flow valuation

  Goldman Sachs uses a DCF methodology to derive Airbus' 12-month target price, which the report sets at €230.

• Operational trackingDelivery seasonality analysis

  Monthly deliveries as a proportion of full-year deliveries

  The report compares June deliveries as a proportion of the full-year forecast with the five-year June average to assess whether the current delivery progress is stronger than seasonal levels.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Comparison of growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles

  Goldman Sachs' factor framework compares the stock with the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite indicators.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Airbus equity (AIR.PA)

  Research subject

  Strengths

  June deliveries exceeded expectations, year-to-date delivery progress remains solid, and the backlog is substantial.

  Weaknesses

  The full-year target still depends on sustained execution in the second half, while the Space business faces pressure.

  Comparison

  June deliveries as a proportion of the full-year forecast exceeded the five-year June average.

  Risks

  Further cuts to delivery guidance, foreign exchange volatility, and headwinds in the Space business.

Key data

• June deliveries89 aircraftAbove Goldman Sachs' tracking estimate of 82 aircraft and up 41% from June 2025.
• Year-to-date deliveries351 aircraftRepresents Airbus' cumulative delivery progress.
• Full-year delivery forecast870 aircraftGoldman Sachs' forecast for FY2026 commercial aircraft deliveries.
• June deliveries as a proportion of full-year forecast10.2%Above the five-year June average of 9.6%.
• June gross orders71 aircraftOrder data for the month.
• June cancellations12 aircraftCancellation data for the month.
• Ending backlog9,222 aircraftIncludes 581 A220s, 7,467 A320-family aircraft, 304 A330s, and 870 A350s.
• 12-month target price€230Based on Goldman Sachs' DCF valuation.

Impact & implications

Stronger-than-expected June deliveries help ease market concerns about Airbus' ability to execute on its full-year delivery target and support the Buy rating and target price. If monthly deliveries continue at a healthy pace, investor confidence in the full-year forecast of 870 deliveries may strengthen; conversely, a renewed slowdown could refocus market attention on supply chain, production ramp-up, and guidance-cut risks.

Risks

• Further cuts to delivery guidance could undermine the credibility of the full-year delivery forecast.
• Foreign exchange risk could affect earnings and valuation.
• Headwinds in the Space business could weigh on overall performance or investor sentiment.
• If supply chain conditions or the production ramp-up fall short of expectations, subsequent monthly deliveries may not sustain June's strong performance.

What to watch

• Whether subsequent monthly deliveries remain above seasonal averages.
• Whether the full-year forecast of 870 deliveries requires adjustment.
• Delivery cadence for major aircraft types such as the A320-family, A220, and A350.
• Changes in gross orders, cancellations, and total backlog.
• The impact of pressure in the Space business and foreign exchange volatility on earnings forecasts.