Memory Super Cycle Continues, Strong Price and Export Data
AI summary card
Memory Super Cycle Continues, Strong Price and Export Data
BofA believes memory super cycle momentum remains strong, June Korea semiconductor exports hit new highs, refutes rumors of NVIDIA Vera memory capacity cuts, and is optimistic about Samsung potentially significantly increasing and advancing dividends.
- Refutes rumors of NVIDIA Vera CPU memory capacity being halved, believes 1500GB remains mainstream configuration
- Korea semiconductor exports for first 10 days of June reached 110 hundred million USD, up 206% YoY, hitting a historical record
- DRAM spot prices rebounded significantly this week (DDR4/DDR5 up 3-4% MoM), memory prices expected to remain strong
- Samsung Electronics 2026 cash dividend could reach 50-70 trillion KRW, and may be distributed 4-5 months earlier
- BofA Korea Conference expected to reinforce memory 'Super Cycle' theme, mentioning chip shortages in 2027/2028
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is the Global Memory Technology Weekly published by BofA Global Research. Through analysis of recent market rumors, high-frequency export data, price trends, and company dynamics, it reiterates an optimistic judgment on the memory industry's 'Super Cycle'. The report refutes market rumors that NVIDIA will reduce the memory capacity configured for its new generation CPU Vera, while using detailed Korea export data and global memory price indicators to demonstrate the strong momentum of current memory market demand. Additionally, the report specifically analyzes Samsung Electronics' shareholder return potential and looks ahead to the upcoming BofA Korea Investment Conference, believing the conference will reinforce the market's positive expectations for memory prosperity.
Core views
Regarding market rumors, BofA believes after verification that NVIDIA's new generation CPU Vera will not reduce SOCAMM memory capacity from 1500GB to 750GB. The Vera Rubin super chip equipped with HBM4 will still mainly use 1500GB (192GB x 8) as the mainstream configuration, and Vera CPU racks without HBM will also initially adopt 1500GB, although customers (such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) have flexible choice rights. Previously, SOCAMM orders mainly came from Vera Rubin, so Vera CPU racks will bring incremental demand for SOCAMM, benefiting its overall market scale. High prosperity on the demand side is fully supported by data: Korea semiconductor exports for the first 10 days of June soared to 110 hundred million USD, up 30% MoM and 206% YoY, hitting a historical record, mainly driven by Average Selling Price (ASP) rising over 100% YoY. Taiwan memory manufacturers' May revenue also performed strongly, Nanya Tech up 730% YoY, Phison Electronics up 301%. China's May integrated circuit import value reached 570 hundred million USD, up 68% YoY, although import volume slightly decreased 1%, the nearly 70% YoY increase in chip prices was the main contributing factor. BofA therefore expects memory chip prices to remain strong across the region. On the supply side and price structure, the report reveals many positive signals. DRAM spot prices, after consolidation in April-May, saw a 3-4% weekly MoM rebound in DDR4/DDR5 this week. Due to capacity tilting towards HBM and server DRAM, leading to shortages in traditional products like DDR4, their prices have risen to historical highs, and DDR5's premium advantage no longer exists. BofA's memory composite indicator reached a historical peak of 189 in March-April, far exceeding the previous upper limit of 140; this indicator is highly correlated with memory manufacturer stock performance.
Analysis framework
BofA's analysis logic follows the main line of 'Rumor Clarification - Demand Verification - Supply Analysis - Price Trends - Valuation & Shareholder Returns'. First, the report starts from market concerns, clarifying rumors of NVIDIA Vera platform memory capacity cuts through channel surveys, aiming to eliminate market doubts about AI-related memory demand increments. Second, the report uses high-frequency macro data (Korea exports, China imports) and micro enterprise data (Taiwan manufacturers' monthly revenue) to cross-verify the strength of memory demand from both volume and price dimensions, using this as evidence for the core judgment that 'prices will remain strong'. Next, the report deeply analyzes DRAM and NAND spot and contract price trends, and applies its unique 'BofA Memory Indicator', synthesizing multiple price and shipment data into a composite index. Through the correlation of this indicator with historical data and stock prices, it quantifies the extreme level of current industry prosperity. Finally, the report turns its perspective to the company level, not only horizontally comparing valuation multiples of global major memory and semiconductor companies, pointing out that their P/E ratios remain low under strong earnings growth, but also specifically decomposes Samsung Electronics' cash flow and shareholder returns, demonstrating its high dividend potential.
Methodology notes
Judging price trends by analyzing the mismatch between memory supply side (capacity tilting towards HBM and server DRAM) and demand side (AI driven, strong export data).
This is the most basic method for analyzing cyclical industries. In this report, BofA believes that on the supply side, due to capacity transfer to high value-added products (HBM), traditional products (DDR4) appear scarce, while on the demand side, it continues to be旺盛 under AI investment promotion. This supply-demand mismatch is the core logic supporting memory prices.
Splitting export value growth into two driving factors: 'shipment volume' and 'Average Selling Price (ASP)' for analysis.
When analyzing Korea export and China import data, the report adopted the volume/price split method. For example, pointing out that China IC import value growth of 68% was mainly driven by price (up nearly 70%), while import volume slightly decreased 1%, which helps readers understand the quality and sustainability of growth.
Analyzing the transmission of memory demand across various links of the industrial chain, from the most upstream chip design (NVIDIA) to midstream memory manufacturing (Samsung, Hynix), to downstream end customers (Google, Meta, etc.).
The report's discussion on NVIDIA Vera is a typical supply chain transmission analysis. NVIDIA, as an AI chip design company, its platform memory configuration specifications directly affect midstream memory manufacturers' SOCAMM orders and market scale.
Identifying and judging industry prosperity inflection points and intensity by constructing a diffusion index synthesizing multiple high-frequency indicators (spot price, contract price, export value, shipment volume).
BofA's self-developed 'Memory Indicator' synthesizes the MoM and YoY trends of 7 components including DRAM/NAND prices, ASP, shipment volume, etc. When the index hits a historical new high (189), it is used as quantitative evidence to judge the industry is in a super cycle upward phase.
Using Price-to-Earnings (P/E) as the core valuation indicator, comparing valuation multiples of different companies, and combining with Return on Equity (ROE) and growth prospects for judgment.
In the valuation section, the report details the forward P/E ratios of global major memory and semiconductor companies. Although stock prices have risen, BofA believes memory companies' forward P/E (e.g., Samsung Electronics 2026 expected 8.0x) remains in a 'very low' range under strong earnings growth, which is an important valuation basis supporting its bullish view.
Evaluating potential shareholder return capability by analyzing the company's Free Cash Flow (FCF) and its payout ratio.
When analyzing Samsung Electronics' dividend potential, the report first predicts its annual free cash flow will reach over 200 trillion KRW, then combines with the company's clearly guided 50% FCF payout ratio, deriving that 2026 cash dividends could reach 50-70 trillion KRW, which is the financial basis for the conclusion of 'larger, earlier dividends'.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)Core beneficiary target. As a global memory (DRAM and NAND) leader, directly benefits from memory price super cycle and AI-driven HBM demand.
- Strengths
- 1Q performance strong, HBM4 prospects optimistic, high exposure in traditional DRAM field, and likely to provide high dividends due to huge free cash flow.
- Weaknesses
- Facing potential downside risks such as US tariffs, 12/16 layer HBM execution risk, foundry business losses, and surge in capital expenditure.
- Comparison
- Compared to SK Hynix, dividend return potential is greater; benefits more from traditional DRAM price elasticity than manufacturers focused on HBM.
- Risks
- US tariffs, HBM technology execution risk, memory price decline, foundry business significant losses, aggressive capital expenditure growth.
- SK Hynix (000660.KS)Core beneficiary target. HBM market leader, benefits from AI-driven HBM demand and strong memory prices.
- Strengths
- 1Q performance stable, leading position in HBM3e and HBM4 fields.
- Weaknesses
- Not detailed in the report.
- Comparison
- Compared to Samsung Electronics, its leadership position in the HBM field is more prominent, benefiting more directly from AI server demand for high bandwidth memory.
- Risks
- Report did not expand risk hints separately for this target.
- NVIDIA (NVDA.US)As a designer of AI chips and platforms, its product (such as Vera Rubin) memory configuration specifications directly determine demand for memory components like SOCAMM, having a huge impact on the memory industry.
- Strengths
- Absolute leader in AI chip field, its platform roadmap is a key basis for market analysis of memory demand.
- Weaknesses
- Not detailed in the report.
- Comparison
- Report did not do horizontal comparison with same group targets.
- Risks
- Report did not expand risk hints separately for this target.
Key data
- Korea June First 10 Days Semiconductor Export Value110 hundred million USDUp 30% MoM, up 206% YoY, hitting a historical record.
- DRAM Spot Price (16Gb DDR5)44.8 USDUp 3% this week MoM, up 14% QoQ, up 675% YoY.
- DRAM Spot Price (16Gb DDR4)66.6 USDUp 4% this week MoM, up 985% YoY, price higher than DDR5 due to supply shortage.
- NAND Spot Price (512Gb Wafer)20.6 USDPrice flat this week, up 661% YoY.
- China May Integrated Circuit Import Value570 hundred million USDUp 68% YoY, mainly driven by nearly 70% price increase, import volume slightly decreased 1%.
- BofA Memory Indicator189 (March-April)Hit historical new high, far exceeding previous upper limit of approx. 140.
- Samsung Electronics Common Stock Target Price440,000 KRWBased on 2027-28 expected P/E 11x, current stock price 306,000 KRW, implied upside approx. 44%.
- Samsung Electronics 2026 Expected Cash Dividend50-70 trillion KRWCalculated based on annual free cash flow over 200 trillion KRW and 50% payout ratio.
Impact & implications
BofA believes the current memory industry is in an AI-driven 'Super Cycle', and this trend is far from over. Strong export data and price trends indicate demand-side pull is real and widespread. Regarding rumors of NVIDIA Vera platform memory capacity cuts, the report considers them untrue, and emphasizes that the emergence of Vera CPU racks brings incremental demand, which is positive for SOCAMM market scale. At the target level, BofA is bullish on memory stocks, especially Samsung Electronics. The report believes that although stock prices have risen significantly, memory companies' valuations (forward P/E) remain low in the face of strong earnings growth. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics,凭借其 huge free cash flow and clear shareholder return policy, is expected to become a target combining growth and high dividend attractiveness. The upcoming BofA Korea Conference is expected to further reinforce market optimism across multiple dimensions such as expert forecasts, corporate guidance, and capital flows.
Risks
- Memory price decline risk: Although current demand is strong, the memory industry is highly cyclical, and future prices may decline due to changes in supply-demand relations.
- Samsung Electronics downside risks: Including impact of US tariff policy, 12-layer/16-layer HBM technology mass production execution failure, possible memory price decline, large foundry business continued losses, and overly aggressive capital expenditure growth.
- Geopolitical and trade policy risks: Changes in US tariffs and other policies may affect the semiconductor industry's global supply chain and market demand.
What to watch
- During BofA Korea Conference (June 15-19), memory experts' forecasts on future chip shortages and latest corporate guidance.
- June 23 BofA Korea Research Team will hold a large investor conference call, sharing situations learned from analyst perspective during the conference.
- Samsung Electronics 2026 annual dividend announcement time and specific amount, whether it will be advanced and significantly increased as expected.
- NVIDIA Vera platform and its related memory configuration final specifications, and actual procurement choices of major cloud customers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta).