China consumer sentiment was subdued during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with tourist traffic essentially flat year on year

Overview

This report tracks China consumer and travel data during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Nomura notes that travel performance during the holiday was subdued, with overall traffic essentially flat year on year, weaker than the 3.5% year-on-year growth during the 2026 Labour Day holiday and the 8.2% growth during the Spring Festival holiday. The weak performance is attributed to adverse weather in South China, rising fuel costs for travel, and the continuation of a generally weak consumption environment.

Core views

The core view is that China’s holiday consumption recovery is still not strong, and both tourism and shopping district data show slower momentum; against a broadly weak sector backdrop, investors should prioritize companies with a clear strategy, visible margin trends, and attractive valuations. Nomura continues to prefer ANTA in sports apparel and Laopu Gold in retail, with Laopu Gold offering a more attractive risk-reward profile if spot gold stabilizes in a more relaxed geopolitical environment.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses a holiday high-frequency data tracking approach, comparing Dragon Boat Festival versus Labour Day and Spring Festival holiday tourist traffic, different transport modes, cross-border travel, traffic in key shopping districts, and sales growth, while combining company ratings, target prices, and valuation methods to judge stock attractiveness.

Methodology notes

• consumer high-frequency trackingholiday passenger traffic and shopping district sales comparison

  holiday consumer momentum

  Using data from the Ministry of Transport, the National Immigration Administration, and the Ministry of Commerce, the report observes year-on-year growth in tourist traffic, cross-border travel, traffic in key shopping districts, and sales, and compares them with the Labour Day and Spring Festival holidays.

• stock valuationP/E multiple method

  target price valuation

  ANTA’s HKD125 target price is based on 25x F12M P/E, roughly equal to its five-year average forward P/E; Laopu Gold’s HKD1,114 target price is based on 22.5x FY26F P/E and reflects its higher sales and earnings growth trajectory.

• relative rating systemNomura stock rating system

  Buy rating

  Nomura’s Buy rating means the analyst expects the relevant stock to outperform its benchmark index over the next 12 months.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China consumer sector

  research subject

  Strengths

  Cross-border travel recovered quickly, air traffic returned to growth, and traffic and sales in key shopping districts remained positive.

  Weaknesses

  Overall tourist traffic was essentially flat year on year, and shopping district sales growth slowed from the Labour Day holiday, reflecting subdued consumer sentiment.

  Comparison

  Performance during the Dragon Boat Festival was weaker than the tourist traffic growth seen during the 2026 Labour Day and Spring Festival holidays.

  Risks

  Continued weakness in macro consumption, weather disruptions, and rising fuel costs could weigh on travel and retail demand.

• ANTA (2020 HK)

  preferred stock, sports apparel segment

  Strengths

  Nomura believes the company has a clear strategy, visible margin trends, and attractive valuation; rated Buy.

  Weaknesses

  The sports apparel industry is highly competitive, and sales growth may come in below expectations.

  Comparison

  The HKD125 target price is based on 25x F12M P/E, roughly in line with the five-year average forward P/E; the benchmark is the Hang Seng Index.

  Risks

  Rising competition at home and abroad, sales growth below expectations, and weaker-than-expected macro conditions.

• Laopu Gold (6181 HK)

  preferred stock, gold and jewelry retail

  Strengths

  Nomura believes the current risk-reward profile is attractive, and the stock becomes even more appealing if spot gold stabilizes in a more relaxed geopolitical environment; rated Buy.

  Weaknesses

  Sensitive to gold prices, fashion risk, and macro conditions.

  Comparison

  The HKD1,114 target price is based on 22.5x FY26F P/E and reflects its higher sales and earnings growth trajectory, with the Hang Seng Index as the benchmark.

  Risks

  A significant decline in gold prices, higher-than-expected fashion risk, and weaker-than-expected macro conditions.

Key data

• Overall tourist traffic during the Dragon Boat Festivalabout 648 million tripsFrom June 19 to 21, or about 216 million per day, essentially flat year on year.
• Year-on-year growth in tourist traffic during the Labour Day holiday3.5%The Dragon Boat Festival growth rate was weaker than that of the Labour Day holiday.
• Year-on-year growth in tourist traffic during the Spring Festival holiday8.2%The Dragon Boat Festival growth rate was also weaker than that of the Spring Festival holiday.
• Railway tourist trafficabout 49 million trips, +2.9% year on yearRail traffic rose 4.6% year on year during the Labour Day holiday.
• Self-driving tourist traffic-2.1% year on yearSelf-driving traffic rose 2.6% year on year during the Labour Day holiday, but turned negative during the Dragon Boat Festival.
• Air traffic+0.6% year on yearThis recovered from a 5.7% year-on-year decline during the Labour Day holiday.
• Cross-border tourist trafficabout 6.7 million trips, +12.9% year on yearThis improved from 3.5% year-on-year growth during the Labour Day holiday.
• Traffic at 78 key shopping districts+4.0% year on yearData for June 19 to 20, below the 5.0% growth recorded during the Labour Day holiday.
• Sales at 78 key shopping districts+3.5% year on yearBelow the 5.3% growth recorded during the Labour Day holiday.
• ANTA target price and current pricetarget price HKD125; current price HKD69.50Rated Buy, with the target price based on 25x F12M P/E.
• Laopu Gold target price and current pricetarget price HKD1,114; current price HKD434.80Rated Buy, with the target price based on 22.5x FY26F P/E.

Impact & implications

The Dragon Boat Festival data indicate that China’s consumption recovery remains moderate, with no clear acceleration in tourism, travel, or offline commercial activity, making it difficult to form a fully optimistic view at the sector level. In terms of investment implications, the report emphasizes stock selection within the sector: after recent broad weakness in share prices, companies with strategic clarity, visible margin expansion, and attractive valuations deserve greater attention.

Risks

• China’s consumption recovery may be weaker than expected, putting pressure on tourism, retail, and discretionary spending.
• Adverse weather in South China and rising fuel costs may continue to dampen willingness to travel during holidays.
• ANTA faces risks from intensifying competition among domestic and international brands, sales growth below expectations, and a weaker macro economy.
• Laopu Gold faces risks from a significant decline in gold prices, higher-than-expected fashion risk, and weaker-than-expected macro conditions.
• The target prices and ratings in the report depend on valuation assumptions and earnings forecasts, which may not be achieved due to market and macro factors.

What to watch

• Whether tourist traffic rebounds to year-on-year growth in upcoming holidays.
• The divergence in traffic trends across rail, self-driving, air, and cross-border travel.
• Whether year-on-year growth in traffic and sales at key shopping districts nationwide continues to slow.
• The impact of fuel costs, weather, and macro consumer confidence on travel and retail demand.
• ANTA’s margin trend, sales growth, and valuation recovery.
• Laopu Gold’s sales growth, earnings performance, and spot gold price trend.