Early ASCO 2026 abstracts suggest sac-TMT may become the strongest Keytruda booster

Overview

This report is Bernstein's commentary on the China pharmaceuticals and biotechnology-related NSCLC data in the first batch of ASCO 2026 abstracts, with a focus on Kelun-Biotech's sac-TMT + pembrolizumab and Innovent's IBI363. The core question is not who can replace Keytruda, but who is most likely to become Keytruda's best potentiating combination. Based on the available abstracts, Bernstein believes sac-TMT currently has the strongest chance of becoming a Keytruda booster; Innovent, meanwhile, is showing I/O 2.0 potential through IBI363 in second-line and later I/O-treated NSCLC and in first-line chemotherapy combination settings.

Core views

The report believes Kelun-Biotech's sac-TMT + pembrolizumab delivered strong data in first-line PD-L1-positive NSCLC, with attractive PFS HR, OS HR, and subgroup performance, especially in larger patient populations such as PD-L1 1-49% and non-squamous disease. For Innovent's IBI363 in second-line and later I/O-failed NSCLC, although small sample sizes limit the interpretation of absolute survival data, the 24-month OS rate and mOS results are encouraging relative to docetaxel; its first-line IBI363 + chemotherapy regimen showed very high ORR and has already moved into a head-to-head study against Keytruda + chemotherapy. Overall, Kelun is closer to commercial and clinical validation, while Innovent's long-term upside still depends on the launch of a global phase III trial and confirmation from more mature survival data.

Analysis framework

The report uses an ASCO abstract rapid-review approach, comparing key therapies across the same or similar NSCLC treatment lines, PD-L1 expression strata, histologic subtypes, and prior I/O treatment backgrounds. Core metrics include ORR, mPFS, PFS HR, OS HR, mOS, 24-month OS rate, and safety signals, with sac-TMT, AK112, Keytruda monotherapy, Keytruda + chemotherapy, other TROP2 ADCs, and docetaxel used as comparators.

Methodology notes

• Clinical data cross-comparisonNSCLC key efficacy metric comparison

  Judging the competitiveness of drug combinations through ORR, PFS, OS, HR, and subgroup data

  The report compares different NSCLC treatment regimens across scenarios such as first-line PD-L1-positive disease and second-line or later I/O-treated disease, focusing on whether efficacy metrics outperform the current standard of care or similar candidates.

• Event-driven industry researchASCO abstract catalyst analysis

  Identifying potential clinical and stock catalysts from academic conference abstracts

  The report centers on the first batch of ASCO 2026 abstracts, selects the most anticipated NSCLC readouts within coverage, and assesses their investment implications for Chinese innovative drug companies.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Kelun-Biotech / sac-TMT + pembrolizumab

  Candidate Keytruda booster combination

  Strengths

  In first-line PD-L1-positive NSCLC, the combination showed PFS HR of 0.35, OS HR of 0.55, and ORR of 70.2%; the report believes the data are strong. Subgroup performance is better in larger patient populations such as PD-L1 1-49% and non-squamous disease.

  Weaknesses

  The data are still immature, mPFS has not yet been reached, and OS is not yet mature.

  Comparison

  Compared with Keytruda monotherapy at 5-6 months mPFS, AK112 monotherapy at 11 months, Keytruda + chemotherapy at 8-11 months, and Keytruda + other TROP2 ADCs at 9-13 months, the report estimates the sac-TMT combination could achieve an mPFS of more than 16 months.

  Risks

  Subsequent mature data may retreat; head-to-head or registration pathways, competing drugs, and safety still need verification.

• Innovent / IBI363

  I/O 2.0 candidate asset and first-line chemotherapy combination regimen

  Strengths

  In second-line and later I/O-failed NSCLC, the mOS data are attractive relative to docetaxel, with a 24-month OS rate of 40-50%; the first-line IBI363 + chemotherapy high- and low-dose regimens achieved ORR of 81.8%, and a head-to-head study against Keytruda + chemotherapy has been initiated.

  Weaknesses

  The second-line and later data have small sample sizes, about 20-30 patients per cohort, so the absolute survival data are limited in interpretability; the first-line PoC currently discloses mainly ORR and lacks mature PFS/OS.

  Comparison

  In the second-line and later setting, docetaxel typically has OS of 9-12 months and a 24-month OS rate of 15-20%; IBI363's disclosed data are better, but comparability is affected by trial design and sample size.

  Risks

  Takeda still needs to drive the launch of a global phase III trial and provide more mature data validation; if the head-to-head study fails to confirm the advantage, expectations for I/O 2.0 could be revised down.

Key data

• sac-TMT + pembrolizumab first-line PD-L1-positive NSCLC ORR70.2%From OptiTROP-Lung05; the report says it is competitive in this setting.
• sac-TMT + pembrolizumab PFS HR0.35The report believes this PFS hazard ratio remains strongly positive even though the data are still immature.
• sac-TMT + pembrolizumab OS HR0.55OS is not yet mature, but the report says this is one of the best early OS trends seen so far.
• Estimated mPFS for sac-TMT16 months or moreThe report approximates this by dividing 5.7 months by 0.35, and compares it with Keytruda monotherapy, AK112, Keytruda + chemotherapy, and other TROP2 ADCs.
• IBI363 second-line and later I/O-failed NSCLC mOS17.5 months and 18.2 monthsThese correspond to the low-dose non-squamous cohort and the 3 mg squamous cohort, respectively; the report notes that the sample sizes are small and the interpretation should be cautious.
• Typical OS with docetaxel9-12 monthsUsed as the benchmark for IBI363's second-line and later data.
• IBI363 second-line and later 24-month OS rate40-50%The report believes this is more meaningful than the usual 15-20% seen with docetaxel.
• IBI363 + chemotherapy first-line NSCLC ORR81.8%The ORR disclosed for the high- and low-dose regimens in the PoC study, representing the highest level among similar trials.

Impact & implications

If subsequent mature data maintain the current trend, Kelun-Biotech's sac-TMT could become the most competitive enhancer among Keytruda combination therapies and may raise market expectations in first-line PD-L1-positive NSCLC. Innovent's IBI363 provides a new Chinese asset example for the I/O 2.0 competitive landscape, but its first-line value still needs validation from head-to-head studies, the progress of a global phase III trial, and more mature OS/PFS data. For investors, ASCO 2026 abstracts offer new clinical catalysts for Chinese innovative drug companies, but the differences between early signals, sample-size limitations, and registrable data still need to be distinguished.

Risks

• ASCO abstract data may not yet have undergone full peer review, and some study data are still immature.
• The second-line and later IBI363 study has a small sample size, making the absolute mOS figures highly uncertain.
• OS data are not yet mature, and early HR or survival-rate advantages may change as follow-up lengthens.
• Cross-trial comparisons are affected by differences in baseline patient characteristics, PD-L1 expression, histologic subtype, treatment line, and study design.
• Innovative drug assets still face risks related to registration pathways, global phase III progression, commercialization competition, safety, and reimbursement.

What to watch

• Further mPFS and OS maturity data from OptiTROP-Lung05, and consistency across subgroups.
• Sustained benefit differences for sac-TMT + pembrolizumab in PD-L1 1-49%, PD-L1 high-expression, non-squamous, and squamous patients.
• Progress of Innovent's IBI363 + chemotherapy head-to-head first-line NSCLC study against pembrolizumab + chemotherapy.
• Whether Takeda launches a global phase III trial for IBI363 and the pace of global development.
• The full ASCO 2026 report, conference presentation, and safety details.