China property sales showed strong resilience in March, with HSBC favoring CR Land, Seazen, and C&D

Overview

This report focuses on March 2026 sales in China's real estate sector, the recovery in Shanghai second-hand home transactions, developers' land acquisition pace, and related stock preferences. HSBC believes that despite the high base from last year's nationwide stimulus policy, sales at high-quality state-owned developers are still showing resilience, and spring-season demand is beginning to build.

Core views

The core views are: first, March sales resilience confirms that spring-season momentum is improving, and delayed launches may support the recovery in April sales; second, liquidity in Shanghai's second-hand home market is strengthening, especially as prices of 'older/smaller' units stabilize, which should improve the replacement chain and support new-home absorption; third, although national land sales were weak in the first quarter, developers are maintaining stable guidance for full-year land purchases, and the land market may accelerate in 2H26; fourth, at the stock level, preference should go to developers with high-quality land reserves in core cities, differentiated products, and strong execution capabilities.

Analysis framework

The report mainly combines monthly YoY sales growth at developers, city-level transaction and visit signals, second-hand home transaction data, land investment pacing, project launch schedules, and valuation charts to assess the strength of industry recovery, then maps these indicators into developer stock preferences.

Methodology notes

• Industry cycle trackingSales momentum vs. a high base

  Compare March sales YoY growth with performance in the first two months of 2026 to judge whether spring-season momentum is being supported.

  Sales at six high-quality state-owned developers fell 1% YoY in March, clearly better than the 17% YoY decline in the first two months of 2026, showing resilience despite the high base.

• Real estate liquidity analysisTransmission from second-hand home transactions to new-home absorption

  Improved liquidity in the second-hand home market can support replacement demand, reset price expectations, and drive new-home absorption.

  Shanghai second-hand home transactions reached 31,215 units in March, a five-year high, and the report believes that price stabilization in 'older/smaller' units, improved affordability, and higher rental yields will strengthen market liquidity.

• Investment and supply cycleObserving the land investment pace

  Use land sales and developers' acquisition guidance to judge future supply and industry confidence.

  National land sales fell 39% YoY in 1Q26, but developers gave stable 2026 land investment outlooks, suggesting momentum may be stronger in 2H26.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• CR Land

  Top pick developer, Buy rated

  Strengths

  High-quality land reserves, core-city presence, and relatively strong product and execution capabilities; likely to benefit from the housing recovery.

  Weaknesses

  March sales fell 14% YoY, so near-term performance remains weak.

  Comparison

  Compared with COLI and Jinmao, March sales growth is not as strong, but HSBC believes delayed launches at key projects and a pipeline of luxury developments will support later improvement.

  Risks

  Sales recovery falls short of expectations, luxury launches are delayed, and price stabilization does not last.

• C&D

  Top pick developer, Buy rated

  Strengths

  Seen as one of the core beneficiaries of the housing recovery, with room to demonstrate differentiated products and pricing power.

  Weaknesses

  The excerpt does not provide its specific March YoY sales data.

  Comparison

  Along with CR Land, it is one of HSBC's top picks, with the focus on proving adaptability in 2026 through product innovation, execution, and pricing power.

  Risks

  Core-city demand recovery falls short of expectations, or product premiumization is weaker than expected.

• Seazen

  Top pick developer, Buy rated

  Strengths

  Its exposure to low-tier city retail is undervalued, and HSBC expects a V-shaped rebound in 2026e earnings.

  Weaknesses

  The property development segment is still affected by industry sales and confidence volatility.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional residential developers, Seazen's commercial retail exposure offers a differentiated path to benefit.

  Risks

  Recovery in consumption and retail properties falls short of expectations, and the earnings rebound is slower than expected.

• COLI

  Hold rated but worth watching

  Strengths

  March sales rose 35% YoY, and its concentrated land bank in first-tier cities may allow it to benefit earlier from improving market activity.

  Weaknesses

  It is rated Hold, and the report does not list it as a top Buy pick.

  Comparison

  Sales growth outpaced CR Land and Greentown, but its investment rating is less positive than that of CR Land, C&D, and Seazen.

  Risks

  The recovery in first-tier cities is insufficient, or the valuation has already priced in part of the improvement.

Key data

• March sales at high-quality state-owned developers-1% y-o-yCompared with -17% y-o-y in the first two months of 2026, this shows resilience despite the high base.
• COLI March sales+35% y-o-yLed among the covered developers.
• Jinmao March sales+32% y-o-yLed March sales together with COLI.
• CR Land March sales-14% y-o-yCurrently weaker, but HSBC expects later improvement supported by delayed launches at key projects and a reserve of luxury supply.
• Greentown March sales-32% y-o-yCurrently weaker, but the report expects it may catch up after land supply increases.
• Shanghai second-hand home transactions in March31,215 unitsReached a five-year high, highlighting the important supportive role of the second-hand market recovery.
• Shanghai March visits+30% vs. pre-policy levelBased on Lianjia data on March 24, supporting the view that demand at the city level is improving.
• National land sales in 1Q26-39% y-o-yA weak start to the quarter, but developers' full-year land acquisition guidance remains stable.

Impact & implications

If the sales recovery extends into April and is combined with improved second-hand home liquidity, developers with high-quality land reserves in core cities and strong execution are more likely to benefit. A land market rebound in 2H26 would also validate developer confidence and the pace of industry recovery. For stock selection, the report is more positive on companies with core-city resources, product innovation capabilities, pricing power, and underappreciated exposure to retail properties.

Risks

• The high base effect may continue to weigh on YoY sales performance.
• If delayed launches are pushed back further, it could weaken the sales recovery in April and beyond.
• If price stabilization and liquidity improvement in the second-hand home market do not persist, new-home absorption and price expectation repair may be hindered.
• National land sales fell 39% YoY in 1Q26, and if they do not recover in 2H26, developer confidence and the industry investment cycle recovery will be weakened.
• Valuations and share performance may still be affected by macro policy, financing conditions, homebuyer confidence, and city-level divergence.

What to watch

• Whether developers' sales in April continue the resilience seen in March.
• Whether transaction volumes of second-hand homes in Shanghai and other core cities, as well as prices of 'older/smaller' units, continue to stabilize.
• Whether new launches can achieve modest price increases and how actual absorption rates perform.
• The launch pace and sales feedback for delayed projects at CR Land and Greentown.
• Whether developers' land acquisition intensity truly rebounds after land supply increases in 2H26.
• Whether Seazen's 2026e earnings deliver the expected V-shaped rebound.