Moderna meeting notes: Oncology vaccine readouts and respiratory vaccine opportunities are the near-term focus

Overview

This report is a summary of discussions with Moderna management at Goldman Sachs' 47th Annual Global Healthcare Conference. The discussion focused on interim Ph3 data for MRK-partnered intismeran in adjuvant melanoma, expansion into other oncology indications such as RCC and bladder cancer, revenue opportunities for respiratory vaccines in the EU and overseas markets, the path to FY26 revenue growth and 2028 break-even, and upcoming registrational data for the norovirus and rare disease pipelines.

Core views

The core view is that Moderna's next-stage narrative will be driven jointly by clinical pipeline execution, revenue diversification, and financial improvement. If intismeran delivers positive results in adjuvant melanoma Ph3, it could strengthen its potential to become a standard-of-care therapy on top of Keytruda; the respiratory vaccine portfolio benefits from the expiry of PFE's EU contract and rollout of combination vaccines. However, the stock remains rated Neutral because multiple catalysts have not yet materialized, and risks remain in commercial adoption, reimbursement coverage, competition, and financing.

Analysis framework

The report is based on Goldman Sachs' fireside chat with Moderna CFO Jamey Mock and dinner discussion with IR head Lavina Talukdar, combined with management commentary on clinical programs, commercial market access, cost discipline, and financial targets, to summarize the investment takeaways and derive a 12-month target price using a DCF framework.

Methodology notes

• Clinical catalyst trackingEvent-driven clinical readouts

  Validate pipeline value through Ph3/Ph2 data milestones

  The report focuses on tracking interim Ph3 data for intismeran in adjuvant melanoma, expansion into RCC and bladder cancer, NSCLC Ph3 progress, Ph3 data for norovirus mRNA-1403, and registrational data for propionic acidemia.

• Valuation frameworkDCF

  100% DCF, 12% WACC, 3% TGR

  Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price of $49 is based on a 100% DCF methodology, using assumptions of 12% weighted average cost of capital and 3% terminal growth rate.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite score

  Goldman Sachs' factor framework compares the stock's characteristics versus the market and industry peers across growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite indicators.

• M&A scenario frameworkM&A Rank

  Acquisition probability score from 1 to 3

  Goldman Sachs uses M&A Rank to assess the potential probability of covered companies being acquired; the report discloses the framework definition but does not use it as a core driver of this Moderna investment conclusion.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Moderna Inc. (MRNA.O)

  Research target, U.S.-listed biotechnology company

  Strengths

  Dense clinical catalysts; mRNA platform spans oncology, respiratory vaccines, norovirus, and rare diseases; cost reductions improve the financial path, while EU contract expiry opens an incremental market.

  Weaknesses

  Current revenue is still affected by declining COVID demand and changes in vaccination rates, and multiple growth drivers depend on data not yet reported and market access.

  Comparison

  The rating is Neutral relative to the Goldman Sachs coverage universe; the target price uses a 100% DCF approach rather than a valuation based on a single short-term catalyst.

  Risks

  Clinical failure, regulatory delays, approval of competing drugs, insufficient payer or physician adoption, IP risk, manufacturing difficulties, and financing/dilution risk.

• intismeran/Keytruda combination

  MRK-partnered personalized neoantigen vaccine pipeline, with adjuvant melanoma as the core readout

  Strengths

  Long-term Ph2 data and ASCO translational data support the immunologic mechanism, the Ph3 sample size is larger, and positive data could support positioning as a standard-of-care adjuvant therapy.

  Weaknesses

  Ph3 results have not yet been unblinded, efficacy must be validated in a larger study, and the treatment landscape may be affected by regimens such as neoadjuvant ipi+nivo.

  Comparison

  The report compares it with an active Keytruda comparator and prior adjuvant therapy approval thresholds, emphasizing the reference significance of HR 0.51.

  Risks

  If Ph3 fails to achieve early success or subsequent analysis does not confirm benefit, confidence in extending the oncology vaccine platform to RCC, bladder cancer, and NSCLC could decline.

• Respiratory vaccine portfolio (COVID, mCOMBRIAX, mNEXSPIKE, RSV)

  Main source of revenue diversification and 2027 EU opportunity

  Strengths

  mCOMBRIAX is the EU's first flu+COVID combination vaccine, offering the convenience of a single vaccination event; expiry of PFE's EU contract opens a potential opportunity of about $1.7bn.

  Weaknesses

  U.S. revenue depends on vaccination rates and mNEXSPIKE share, while overseas growth depends on market access and partnership execution.

  Comparison

  Compared with a standalone COVID vaccine, combination vaccines and a multi-product respiratory portfolio help broaden revenue sources.

  Risks

  Declining vaccination rates, uncertainty around regulatory resubmissions, competing products, and reimbursement coverage limitations may affect uptake.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-09The cover page shows 9 June 2026.
• Investment ratingNeutralGoldman Sachs states, We are Neutral rated on MRNA.
• 12-month target price$49The target price is based on 100% DCF.
• Disclosed price$47.73Moderna Inc.'s price is listed in the company-specific disclosure.
• Implied upsideApproximately 2.7%Estimated based on the $49 target price and the disclosed price of $47.73.
• FY26 revenue guidanceUp to 10% year-over-year growth, about $2.1bnManagement reiterated its FY26 revenue growth outlook.
• FY26 revenue mixAbout 50/50 between the U.S. and overseasThe report states revenue is expected to be split roughly evenly between the U.S. and OUs.
• International revenue growthPotential growth of about 30%Overseas growth comes from existing partnerships in the UK, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere.
• EU respiratory vaccine opportunityAbout $1.7bnA potential opportunity opens up after PFE's EU COVID-era contract expires in 2026.
• Cost and investment reductionsAbout $5bn from 2023-2025Management emphasized that cost and investment reductions have already been achieved.
• intismeran melanoma Ph3 sizeAbout 1,100 patientsCompared with about 150 patients in Ph2, management believes the study design is more robust.
• RFS hazard ratio referenceHR 0.51Management cited the RFS data for intismeran versus an active Keytruda comparator as an important reference.
• ASCO translational dataAbout 2x higher proportion of newly expanded T-cell clonotypesThe combination therapy showed a higher proportion of newly expanded T-cell clonotypes relative to Keytruda monotherapy.
• RCC Ph2 sizeAbout 300 patientsManagement said the RCC study enrolled about 300 patients, about twice the size of the adjuvant melanoma Ph2b study.
• Norovirus Ph3 sizeAbout 28,000 patientsThe mRNA-1403 study is a randomized, observer-blind, placebo-controlled Ph3 trial.
• U.S. norovirus TAMAbout 150mnThe report states the potential target market in the U.S. is about 150 million people.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that MRNA's near-term share price may be driven more by clinical data and respiratory vaccine market access progress than by current revenue itself. If intismeran melanoma Ph3, norovirus Ph3, or RCC/NSCLC expansion data are positive, this could increase market confidence in the mRNA platform's long-term ability to expand across indications; if respiratory vaccines ramp in the EU and overseas markets, that would also help improve revenue diversification and confidence in the 2028 break-even path. Conversely, any data failure, regulatory delay, or weaker-than-expected commercial adoption could pressure valuation.

Risks

• intismeran may fail to demonstrate sufficient clinical benefit in melanoma or other oncology indications.
• Approval timelines for oncology programs may be slower than expected, or other pipeline assets may fail to achieve clinical proof of concept.
• Respiratory vaccine sales, penetration, physician adoption, or payer coverage may come in below expectations.
• Approval of competing drugs or changes in competitors' commercial failure/success may affect the market landscape.
• IP risk, manufacturing difficulties, financing needs, or equity dilution may pressure valuation.
• If the 2028 break-even path cannot be delivered, the financial improvement narrative may weaken.

What to watch

• 2026 interim Ph3 data for intismeran in adjuvant melanoma.
• RCC Ph2 data in 2026 or early 2027, followed by subsequent data in muscle-invasive bladder cancer.
• 2027 NSCLC Ph3 data and updates on trial enrollment completion.
• 2026 interim Ph3 data for norovirus mRNA-1403 and potential regulatory filing.
• Registrational data for the propionic acidemia rare disease program.
• mCOMBRIAX revenue contribution in the EU in autumn 2027 and progress in respiratory vaccine market access.
• Whether FY26 revenue achieves up to 10% growth and whether the 2028 break-even path is maintained.
• Company updates on additional pipeline assets at the 6/25 Science Day.