China's lithium carbonate imports surged year over year in March, while lithium prices rebounded month over month

Overview

This report, published by JPMorgan, focuses on China's import and export data for lithium products in March 2026, with particular emphasis on lithium carbonate imports, lithium hydroxide exports, and related price changes. The report shows that both lithium carbonate import volumes and import prices increased significantly, while lithium hydroxide export volumes declined year over year, and China has been a net importer of lithium hydroxide year-to-date 2026.

Core views

The core message is that China's lithium carbonate demand or supply-chain restocking may still be strong, with March import volumes rising sharply year over year; meanwhile, both lithium carbonate import prices and lithium hydroxide export prices increased month over month, indicating signs of a price recovery for lithium products during the month. In contrast, lithium hydroxide exports weakened, reflecting a clear slowdown in China's external supply pace versus the same period last year, and the year-to-date net trade direction has already shifted to imports.

Analysis framework

The report uses a monthly import/export data tracking framework, comparing China's lithium product exports, imports, net imports or net exports, year-over-year changes, and month-over-month price changes, while also observing trends through multi-year annual data. Key indicators include lithium carbonate import volume, lithium carbonate net import volume, lithium hydroxide export volume, lithium hydroxide net export or net import volume, and corresponding prices in USD/ton.

Methodology notes

• Industry data trackingImport/export volume and price analysis

  Assess lithium product supply-demand and price trends through monthly import/export volumes, net imports or net exports, and price changes.

  The report compares March 2026 data with the previous month and the same period last year, and uses multi-year annual series to show changes in China's lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide trade patterns.

• Commodity price analysisMonth-over-month and year-over-year price comparison

  Use month-over-month and year-over-year changes in average USD/ton prices to measure price momentum.

  The average import price of lithium carbonate and the average export price of lithium hydroxide both rose month over month in March, which the report uses to indicate that prices improved relative to February.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Lithium carbonate

  The import commodity primarily tracked in the report

  Strengths

  March import volume rose sharply year over year, and the average import price increased both month over month and year over year.

  Weaknesses

  High imports may also reflect a domestic supply gap or inventory adjustment; one month of data cannot directly prove that the demand trend is sustainable.

  Comparison

  Year-to-date 2026 net imports reached 81.7 kt, up 65.0% year over year; for full-year 2025, net imports were 237.7 kt, only 2.8% higher than in 2024.

  Risks

  If import growth or prices weaken subsequently, the current improvement signal may fade.

• Lithium hydroxide

  The export commodity primarily tracked in the report

  Strengths

  The average export price in March rose 16% month over month and 12% year over year.

  Weaknesses

  March export volume fell 26% year over year, and China has become a net importer of 6.1 kt year-to-date 2026.

  Comparison

  Net exports were 35.4 kt in 2025, down about 69% from 2024; net exports were 113 kt in 2024, down about 11% from 2023.

  Risks

  The decline in export volume may reflect weak overseas demand, changes in the competitive landscape, or shifts in supply-chain flows.

Key data

• March lithium carbonate import volume30.0千吨Up 65% year over year; it was 18.1 kt in the same period last year.
• Year-to-date 2026 net lithium carbonate imports81.7千吨Up 65.0% year over year.
• 2025 net lithium carbonate imports237.7千吨Up 2.8% versus 2024.
• March lithium hydroxide export volume3.1千吨Down 26% year over year; it was 4.3 kt in the same period last year.
• Year-to-date 2026 lithium hydroxide trade statusNet imports of 6.1 ktThis marks a change from the historical pattern of net exports in most years.
• Average March lithium carbonate import priceUSD 14,993/tonIt was USD 12,255/ton in February and USD 10,109/ton in March 2025; up 22% month over month and 48% year over year.
• Average March lithium hydroxide export priceUSD 14,869/tonIt was USD 12,769/ton in February and USD 13,232/ton in March 2025; up 16% month over month and 12% year over year.

Impact & implications

For the lithium industry chain, strong growth in lithium carbonate imports and recovering prices may reinforce market attention on improved Chinese demand or restocking; however, weaker lithium hydroxide exports and a net import position suggest continued divergence in external demand, product mix, or regional supply-demand dynamics. For upstream lithium resources, lithium salt processing, and battery materials chains, it will be important to watch whether imports remain sustained, whether price recovery continues, and whether weak exports improve.

Risks

• Monthly import and export data can be highly volatile and may be affected by post-holiday shipping schedules, inventory adjustments, order deliveries, and customs reporting timing.
• The price data are average import/export prices and may be influenced by product specifications, contract structures, and changes in trade destinations, so they are not fully equivalent to spot prices.
• The report does not provide company-level earnings forecasts, valuations, or ratings, so it cannot be used to directly derive individual stock investment conclusions.
• If weak lithium hydroxide exports persist, it may pressure related lithium salt exporters and the high-nickel battery materials chain.

What to watch

• Whether China's lithium carbonate import volume continues to maintain high year-over-year growth in the coming months.
• Whether the month-over-month increases in lithium carbonate import prices and lithium hydroxide export prices continue.
• Whether China continues to remain a net importer of lithium hydroxide, or shifts back to net exports.
• Whether full-year 2026 net lithium carbonate imports will be meaningfully higher than in 2025.
• The impact of changes in overseas EV and battery material demand on China's lithium hydroxide exports.