China GLP-1 expert call: price cuts drive volume growth, competition intensifies but market opportunity remains substantial

Overview

This report is a summary of Nomura's GLP-1 expert call held on April 21, 2026, focusing on global clinical progress and changes in the China commercialization market. Experts discussed assets including orforglipron, retatrutide, Novo Nordisk's amycretin, and WVE-007, and emphasized that the China market has seen volume expansion after price cuts, with intensified competition but still attractive long-term demand.

Core views

The core view is that the China GLP-1 market is moving from an early high-price stage into a phase where price competition and volume expansion coexist. Eli Lilly's price cuts have significantly boosted tirzepatide sales, while Novo Nordisk and Innovent have also lowered prices to join the competition. Experts are relatively positive on retatrutide's weight-loss and HbA1c reduction data, and also believe that oral GLP-1 may have the potential to replace existing therapies at the treatment-guideline level for type 2 diabetes.

Analysis framework

The report is mainly based on views from the expert call, combined with disclosed clinical data, commercialization price observations, the competitive landscape, and company rating disclosures. The valuation disclosure for Innovent uses a DCF model, discounted to the end of 2025, assuming a WACC of 10.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.0%.

Methodology notes

• Expert interviewGLP-1 expert call

  Form judgments on drug pipelines, the competitive landscape, and market volume expansion through industry experts' observations of clinical progress and commercialization trends.

  The call covered orforglipron, retatrutide, amycretin, WVE-007, tirzepatide's pricing and sales changes in China, as well as obesity treatment demand in China.

• Valuation methodDCF

  Assess a company's intrinsic value by discounting future cash flows.

  Innovent's target price of HKD 114.64 is based on a DCF model, discounted to the end of 2025, assuming a WACC of 10.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 4.0%.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Innovent (1801 HK)

  A listed company materially mentioned in the report, rated Buy, and participating in price competition in China's GLP-1 market.

  Strengths

  Benefiting from the expansion of China's GLP-1 market and growing demand for obesity treatment, Nomura's target price indicates upside from the current price.

  Weaknesses

  Facing competitive pressure from Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and more products that may be approved in the future.

  Comparison

  Compared with multinational pharmaceutical companies, Innovent has opportunities to participate in local commercialization and pricing competition in China, but it also needs to address product differentiation challenges.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition in GLP-1 drugs, VBP for biosimilars, and setbacks in the clinical development of IBI363.

• Eli Lilly (LLY US)

  Experts focused on discussing its orforglipron, retatrutide, and tirzepatide.

  Strengths

  Tirzepatide has seen strong sales growth in China after price cuts; experts gave positive assessments of retatrutide's clinical data.

  Weaknesses

  Orforglipron's weight-loss effect in the obesity indication is lower than some oral competitors, and its commercial success depends on differentiated positioning.

  Comparison

  It is currently viewed as one of Novo Nordisk's main challengers and leaders in next-generation GLP-1 competition.

  Risks

  A low-price strategy may affect earnings quality, and there is still uncertainty around future clinical readouts and approval progress.

• Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC)

  The report discusses that after the setback of CagriSema, amycretin may become the next key asset.

  Strengths

  It has a deep product and commercialization foundation in the GLP-1 field, and amycretin may be used to challenge Eli Lilly.

  Weaknesses

  CagriSema suffered setbacks relative to Tirzepatide, and the company needs to rely on next-generation assets to rebuild its competitive advantage.

  Comparison

  Compared with Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk needs to demonstrate differentiated efficacy through mechanism combinations such as GLP-1/amylin.

  Risks

  Clinical data falling short of competitors, intensified price competition, and pressure on market share.

• WVE-007

  An INHBE GalNAc-siRNA asset that experts re-positioned for discussion after a recent clinical failure.

  Strengths

  If future trials succeed, it may differentiate itself as a companion therapy to GLP-1 rather than a replacement therapy.

  Weaknesses

  The recent clinical failure has weakened the investment narrative of it as a GLP-1 substitute.

  Comparison

  Compared with directly replacing GLP-1, experts believe it is better positioned as a GLP-1 pal.

  Risks

  There is high uncertainty regarding both future clinical efficacy and positioning.

Key data

• Innovent current priceHKD 83.00The price date is 2026-04-23, and the rating is Buy.
• Innovent target priceHKD 114.64Based on the DCF model, implying about 38.1% upside from the current price.
• Expected monthly cost of orforglipron in China约CNY750/月Experts expect that if approved by the end of 2026 or early 2027, the price in China may be at this level.
• China obese population size50-60mnBased on this, experts believe the market potential of China's GLP-1 weight-loss market remains substantial.
• Possible approval timing for generic semaglutideNo earlier than 2027Experts believe this has been an important event previously watched by the market.
• Nomura Buy rating proportion57%Nomura Group global equity research rating distribution, as of 2026-03-31.

Impact & implications

In terms of investment implications, price cuts may depress unit prices and profit margins in the short term, but they may also significantly expand patient accessibility and prescription volume. Companies with differentiated efficacy, dosing convenience, pricing strategy, and commercial channel capabilities are more likely to benefit. For Innovent, intensified GLP-1 competition is a clear risk, but the Buy rating and target price indicate that Nomura remains optimistic about its relative return potential.

Risks

• Intensifying competition in GLP-1 drugs may compress prices and profit margins.
• If orforglipron cannot differentiate its weight-loss effect in the obesity indication, its commercial performance may be constrained.
• Candidate drugs such as retatrutide, amycretin, and WVE-007 still face uncertainty in clinical readouts and approvals.
• Innovent faces risks from intensifying GLP-1 competition, VBP for biosimilars, and setbacks in the clinical development of IBI363.
• Regulatory and compliance uncertainty arising from off-label use in online channels may affect demand release.

What to watch

• The 2026 data readout of retatrutide in the TRIUMPH-1 obesity/overweight study.
• The approval timing, pricing, and indication positioning of orforglipron in China.
• Subsequent price adjustments and sales changes of GLP-1 products in China by Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Innovent.
• Whether generic semaglutide will be approved in 2027 or later.
• Whether Novo Nordisk's amycretin can demonstrate efficacy and safety sufficient to challenge Eli Lilly.