NEVs Account for Over 50% of China's Auto Exports in April, PHEVs Gain Importance

Overview

This report is J.P. Morgan's monthly China auto export tracker, focusing on April 2026 export dynamics. The key finding shows NEV exports exceeded 50% share for the first time at 55%, with PHEVs rapidly gaining importance within NEV exports. The firm views Chinese automakers' overseas share gains as structural rather than cyclical, making exports a core growth driver, hence raising 2026 total export forecast to ~9.8 million units (~40% YoY growth).

Core views

Breakthroughs in both export volume and structure. China's passenger vehicle exports exceeded 2.7 million units in Jan-Apr 2026, up 69% YoY. More notably, the powertrain mix shifted dramatically: NEVs accounted for 55% of exports in April vs 50% in March and 33% in early 2024. Within NEVs, PHEV share surged from 11% in Jan 2024 to 39% in Apr 2026, mirroring the 'PHEV rise' trend seen domestically. Regional diversification with Europe remaining core but less dominant. Europe (including Western and Eastern Europe) remains the top destination at 37%, followed by Asia (30%) and South America (17%). However, automakers' regional strategies diverged: SAIC notably tilted toward Europe (European share rose from 34% in 2024 to 46% in Jan-Apr 2026); Geely saw South America share jump from 4% to 18% though Asia remains its largest region; Great Wall reduced European reliance (from 65% to 38%) while increasing shipments to Asia and South America. This regional diversification signals lower single-market risk and more sustainable share growth. Competitive landscape and profitability outlook. BYD and Leapmotor lead in NEV-driven export acceleration, while traditional export leaders like Chery, SAIC and Geely are transitioning toward BEV/PHEV models. The report forecasts selected Chinese automakers' overseas revenue share will reach 30-60% in 2026, far exceeding their 15-30% shipment share, reflecting higher overseas ASPs and margins. Thus, automakers with substantial overseas production capacity will benefit most, particularly BYD, Geely and Leapmotor (via its Stellantis partnership).

Analysis framework

The report combines high-frequency data tracking with structured analysis. First, it validates YoY export growth using customs data (ThinkerCar) and CAAM data. Second, through 'volume-price breakdown' and 'structural analysis', it examines changes in powertrain (BEV/PHEV/ICE) and geography (Europe/Asia/Latin America) dimensions, identifying PHEV growth and regional diversification as key marginal changes. Finally, it assesses automakers' strategic paths (e.g., SAIC's Europe focus, Geely's Latin America expansion, Leapmotor's JV model) to derive their profitability impact - particularly overseas high margins' contribution potential.

Methodology notes

• Industry Analysis FrameworkVolume-Price Breakdown

  Volume-Price Breakdown & Structural Analysis

  The report not only tracks total export growth (volume) but also analyzes the rising share of higher-value NEVs (price/structure) and regional ASP differences to assess exports' actual profit contribution.

• Industry Analysis Framework

  Geopolitical Diversification Risk Analysis

  By analyzing automakers' export share changes across regions (Europe, Asia, South America), it evaluates single-market dependence. More balanced regional distribution signals stronger risk resilience and long-term share growth potential.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD (002594.SZ/1211.HK)

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  NEV export leader with comprehensive overseas capacity and vertically integrated supply chain

  Comparison

  More complete NEV transition and stronger overseas pricing power vs traditional exporters

• Geely Auto (0175.HK)

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  Regional diversification model, rapid growth in South America, rich brand portfolio

  Comparison

  Still dominates in Asia but successfully expanding in Europe and Latin America

• Leapmotor (9863.HK)

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  Quick global expansion via Stellantis partnership leveraging its channels, capital-light model

  Comparison

  Faster overseas expansion with lower capex pressure vs automakers building own channels

• SAIC Motor (600104.SS)

  Beneficiary

  Strengths

  Highest European exposure (46%), export volume leader

  Weaknesses

  High reliance on European market

  Comparison

  Typical Europe-oriented exporter gradually adjusting powertrain mix

  Risks

  European policy volatility risks

• Great Wall Motor (601633.SS/2333.HK)

  Neutral/Structural Adjustment

  Strengths

  Actively reducing European reliance, shifting to Asia and South America

  Weaknesses

  Declining European market share

  Comparison

  Unlike peers increasing European focus, it opts for more balanced global distribution

Key data

• Jan-Apr Passenger Vehicle Exports>2.7 million unitsUp 69% YoY
• April NEV Export Share55%First time >50%, was 50% in March
• PHEV Share in NEV Exports39%April 2026 data, was just 11% in Jan 2024
• 2026 Total Export Forecast~9.8 million unitsIncludes passenger and commercial vehicles, ~40% YoY growth expected
• European Market Export Share37%Jan-Apr cumulative data, remains top destination

Impact & implications

For Chinese automakers, exports have transformed from inventory clearing to core profit centers. With overseas ASPs and margins significantly higher than domestic, rising NEV (especially high-value PHEV) export share will optimize overall profitability. Investors should focus on companies with overseas production capacity or unique partnerships (e.g., Leapmotor-Stellantis), which better navigate trade barriers and enjoy localization benefits. Meanwhile, overseas PHEV adoption may exceed expectations, reshaping global NEV competition.

What to watch

• Overseas market acceptance of PHEVs and subsequent penetration changes
• Market share changes of key automakers in Europe, Latin America etc.
• Progress of Chinese automakers' overseas capacity construction and localization rates
• Potential impact of global trade policy changes on China's auto exports