800V EV technology migrates to AI data centers, Recodeal receives a double upgrade to Overweight

Overview

This report focuses on the possibility of China's 800V EV supply chain migrating toward 800VDC AI data centers. Morgan Stanley believes that rising 800V EV penetration in China has already driven the maturation of capabilities in high-voltage components such as SiC, GaN, connectors, relays, fuses, DC-DC converters, and OBCs, with the more versatile high-voltage semiconductors and connectors more likely to enter AIDC scenarios first. The report especially upgrades Recodeal, believing that its AEC joint venture, AI interconnect products, and potential power whip business will drive revenue and earnings upside after 2026.

Core views

The core view is that both 800V EV and 800V AIDC reduce current, cable size, thermal loss, and conversion loss by increasing voltage, but the data center scenario is not a direct transplant of auto parts and requires redesign, certification, and customer onboarding. Recodeal's high-voltage connector experience, ramp-up in AEC mass production, and power whip potential enable it to extend from a single EV/ESS connector supplier to an AIDC interconnect platform; Yangjie Technology may also benefit from domestic substitution in power semiconductors and improving prices; Tier-1 suppliers such as Joyson Electronics also have opportunities, but they need to adapt automotive-grade products for data center use.

Analysis framework

The report combines supply-chain mapping, EV versus AIDC architecture comparison, company business breakdown, revenue forecast revisions, and DCF valuation. It first reviews suppliers of semiconductors, motors, connectors, relays, and fuses in the 800V EV supply chain, then evaluates the difficulty of migrating these capabilities to 800VDC AIDC and the potential beneficiaries, and finally incorporates AEC and power whip revenue into Recodeal's 2026-2028 forecasts and raises the target price.

Methodology notes

• Supply chain analysis800V EV to 800V AIDC migration framework

  Technical similarities and certification differences

  The report compares the overlap between EV and AIDC in high-voltage power supply, connection, protection, and power conversion, while emphasizing that data centers have higher requirements for continuous operation, redundancy, hot-swappability, low downtime, and infrastructure-grade reliability.

• Company forecastSegmented revenue forecast

  Breakdown of AEC and power whip contributions

  Recodeal's forecast separately includes AEC, power whip, and AI interconnect businesses, reflecting a scenario in which AIDC products begin contributing revenue in 2026 and continue expanding in 2027-2028.

• Valuation methodsDCF valuation

  Target price derived from the DCF base case

  The target price of Rmb121 comes from the DCF base case; key assumptions include a 14.5% cost of equity, 12% WACC, and a 3% terminal growth rate.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System (688800.SS)

  Core upgraded name, expanding from EV high-voltage connectors into AIDC interconnects

  Strengths

  Has experience in 800V EV high-voltage connectors; has established an AEC joint venture and began mass production in 1Q26; AIDC power whip has potential growth room; AI interconnect revenue forecasts were revised up significantly.

  Weaknesses

  EV and ESS still accounted for 91% of revenue in 2025, so the business remains highly dependent on new energy vehicle connectors; EV price wars and customer cost-down pressure may still weigh on margins.

  Comparison

  The report believes Bizlink remains the global AEC leader, while Recodeal is catching up from a smaller base and capturing incremental opportunities.

  Risks

  AIDC certification, yield rates, cost declines, or customer onboarding may progress more slowly than expected; copper and silver price volatility; competition from global interconnect vendors and IP risks.

• Yangjie Technology (300373.SZ)

  Potential beneficiary, power semiconductor supplier

  Strengths

  As a leading Chinese power semiconductor supplier, it may benefit from auto localization and improving power semiconductor prices.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide company-level revenue, earnings, or valuation forecasts in detail.

  Comparison

  Compared with connector suppliers, power semiconductors are a more upstream and more versatile high-voltage technology segment.

  Risks

  There is uncertainty in power semiconductor pricing, the pace of domestic substitution, and AIDC customer certification.

• Joyson Electronics (600699.SS)

  Watchlist name, migration opportunity from Tier-1 automotive electronics to AIDC

  Strengths

  Supplies 800V automotive electronics for the Porsche Taycan, including high-voltage boosters, multifunction DC-DC converters, and OBCs; already has an Rmb22bn backlog of 800V orders.

  Weaknesses

  Automotive-grade products need to be redesigned for data centers and cannot be reused directly.

  Comparison

  Compared with general-purpose connectors and semiconductors, Tier-1 system components are harder to migrate but have a broader potential application range.

  Risks

  Customer validation cycles are long, and the timing of AIDC revenue contribution is uncertain.

• Bizlink (3665.TW)

  An important comparable in AIDC power whip and AEC

  Strengths

  The report says it is a power whip supplier for Nvidia Blackwell GPU racks and has connectors, cables, and busbar technology supporting 800VDC architecture.

  Weaknesses

  The report mainly uses it as a peer comparison and does not make it the core rating adjustment in this report.

  Comparison

  Bizlink is seen as a global leading AEC supplier, while Recodeal is in the catch-up stage.

  Risks

  The pace of AIDC demand, industry competition, and customer concentration may affect industry profitability.

Key data

• Report date2026-07-01The time shown at the top of the report body is July 1, 2026 09:00 PM GMT.
• Recodeal rating changeUnderweight -> OverweightThe report says Recodeal received a double upgrade.
• Recodeal target price changeRmb42.14 -> Rmb121.00The target price increase reflects the revenue potential of AEC and power whip.
• China 800V EV sales penetration5% in 2023 -> 11% in 2025The higher penetration rate is driving the maturation of China's 800V automotive supply chain.
• Recodeal 2026E/2027E/2028E revenueRmb5,049mn / Rmb7,655mn / Rmb9,674mnThe new forecasts are significantly higher than the previous forecasts.
• Recodeal 2026E/2027E/2028E EPSRmb1.59 / Rmb2.50 / Rmb3.332026-2027 EPS was revised up by 8.3% and 36.9%.
• AEC revenue forecastRmb1.1bn in 2026; Rmb2.6bn in 2027; Rmb3.6bn in 2028Management guidance indicates AEC monthly capacity will increase from 15k in 1Q26 to 120-150k in 4Q26.
• power whip revenue forecastRmb0.5bn in 2027; Rmb1.0bn in 2028The base case assumes no power whip revenue in 2026; the bull case assumes mass production in 2H26 contributing about Rmb0.5bn.
• AI interconnect revenue forecastRmb1.1bn in 2026; Rmb3.1bn in 2027; Rmb4.6bn in 2028The report expects AI interconnect revenue to account for more than 40% of Recodeal's revenue in 2027.
• Mid-term growth rate assumption11% -> 20%The increase reflects revenue expansion driven by AIDC.
• Key DCF assumptions14.5% cost of equity; 12% WACC; 3% terminal growthThe report says other key assumptions are basically unchanged.

Impact & implications

The investment implication is that the market may be underestimating the optional growth potential of China's 800V EV high-voltage component suppliers entering AIDC. For Recodeal, if AEC and power whip scale up as expected, the company's revenue mix will shift from being highly dependent on EV/ESS connectors toward AI data center interconnects, and its valuation logic may also shift from a cyclical auto parts supplier to a beneficiary of the AI infrastructure supply chain. However, the migration requires validation in certification, reliability, and customer onboarding, so the pace remains uncertain.

Risks

• Recodeal remains highly dependent on EV and ESS connectors, which accounted for 91% of revenue in 2025; if EV connectors weaken, the short-term scale of AIDC may not be enough to fully offset it.
• The AIDC interconnect business is still in the ramp-up stage; if customer certification, yield rates, cost reduction, or migration to 1.6T and above progresses more slowly than expected, valuation may fall back.
• Data centers have higher requirements for 24/7 continuous operation, high power density, redundancy, hot-swappability, and low downtime, so automotive suppliers need a longer time to revalidate products.
• Price fluctuations in metals such as copper and silver may raise the cost of connectors, cable assemblies, and high-voltage components, affecting margins.
• Competition among global interconnect vendors is intense, and the AEC field also carries patent and IP sensitivity risks.

What to watch

• Whether Recodeal's AEC monthly capacity can increase from 15k in 1Q26 to 120-150k in 4Q26.
• Whether AEC revenue reaches Rmb1.1bn in 2026 as forecast and rises to Rmb2.6bn in 2027.
• Whether power whip begins contributing revenue in 2027 and whether the 2H26 bull-case mass production materializes.
• Whether Recodeal can enter the supply chains of overseas CSPs and higher-value AIDC interconnect platforms.
• The adoption pace of the 800VDC AIDC architecture at Nvidia and other AI data centers.
• Whether the EV connector business recovers from destocking pressure in 1Q26 and whether OEM price-cut pressure eases.
• The impact of copper prices, silver prices, and global interconnect industry competition on gross margin.