China's e-commerce sales growth slowed year-on-year to 3.3% in July

Overview

Based on July retail data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 17, 2026, Nomura noted that year-on-year growth in China's e-commerce goods sales slowed. Overall consumption momentum remained weak, but consumer subcategories showed clear divergence.

Core views

China's e-commerce goods sales increased 3.3% year-on-year to RMB967.0 billion in July, below June's 3.9%; retail sales excluding automobiles rose 2.5% year-on-year, also below June's 3.0%. E-commerce penetration increased 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 28.1%. Cumulative online food and beverage sales continued to post relatively rapid growth, while cumulative growth in online apparel and home goods sales continued to slow. Across offline and omnichannel metrics, smartphone sales accelerated, while computers, cosmetics, and apparel weakened; home appliance sales remained down but the decline narrowed.

Analysis framework

The analysis uses monthly retail data from the National Bureau of Statistics, comparing year-on-year growth rates in July and June and observing changes in consumer demand across online product categories and overall retail consumption subcategories.

Methodology notes

• Macroeconomic and Industry Data TrackingMonthly Year-on-Year Growth Comparison

  Tracking changes in year-on-year growth rates month over month

  By comparing year-on-year growth rates in July and June, the analysis identifies marginal changes in demand momentum for e-commerce and consumer categories.

• Industry Penetration AnalysisE-commerce Penetration

  The share of e-commerce sales in retail sales

  The proportion of e-commerce sales in total retail sales measures the penetration of online channels in the retail market.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China Internet Retail and E-commerce Sector

  Industry Demand Indicator

  Strengths

  E-commerce penetration continues to increase, while online food and beverage sales maintain relatively rapid growth.

  Weaknesses

  Year-on-year growth in e-commerce sales slowed in July, and cumulative growth in online apparel and home goods sales declined.

  Comparison

  E-commerce growth was 3.3%, higher than the 2.5% growth in overall retail sales excluding automobiles, but both slowed from June.

  Risks

  Further weakening consumer demand, intensifying category competition, and pricing pressure may constrain growth for platforms and merchants.

• China Consumer Electronics and Smartphone-Related Sector

  Consumer Subsector Demand Indicator

  Strengths

  Year-on-year smartphone sales growth increased from 16.5% in June to 20.4%, while the decline in home appliance sales narrowed.

  Weaknesses

  Computer sales growth fell from 12.7% to 7.4%, indicating that electronics demand has not improved across the board.

  Comparison

  Smartphone performance was clearly stronger than that of computers, home appliances, and most discretionary consumption categories.

  Risks

  Smartphone sales growth may be driven by higher selling prices; if underlying shipment demand is insufficient, the sustainability of growth is uncertain.

Key data

• July year-on-year growth in e-commerce goods sales3.3%Sales were RMB967.0 billion, versus 3.9% in June.
• July year-on-year growth in retail sales excluding automobiles2.5%Sales were RMB3.6 trillion, versus 3.0% in June.
• July e-commerce penetration28.1%Up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year.
• July year-on-year growth in smartphone sales20.4%This was 16.5% in June; the report believes the increase may have been supported by higher consumer electronics prices due to upstream component cost inflation.
• July year-on-year growth in computer sales7.4%This was 12.7% in June.
• July year-on-year growth in home appliance sales-1.9%This was -8.7% in June, with the decline narrowing.
• July year-on-year growth in cosmetics sales6.8%This was 12.6% in June.
• July year-on-year growth in apparel sales-1.0%This was growth of 3.9% in June.
• Year-on-year growth in online food and beverage sales in the first seven months of 202616.9%This was 16.8% in the first six months of 2026.
• Year-on-year growth in online apparel sales in the first seven months of 20265.8%This was 6.2% in the first six months of 2026.
• Year-on-year growth in online home goods sales in the first seven months of 20261.1%This was 1.3% in the first six months of 2026.

Impact & implications

Slower e-commerce sales reflect still-weak overall consumer demand and may pressure transaction value and revenue growth for internet retail, apparel, beauty, and home-related companies. Accelerating smartphone sales and a narrowing decline in home appliance sales indicate relative resilience in the consumer electronics supply chain, although smartphone growth may partly result from higher prices and requires differentiation between price and volume contributions.

Risks

• Monthly retail data may be affected by base effects, promotional timing, and price factors, and may not fully reflect sustained demand trends.
• Accelerating smartphone sales may be driven primarily by rising consumer electronics prices rather than a significant improvement in sales volumes.
• Weakness in apparel, cosmetics, computers, and home goods indicates that the recovery in discretionary consumption remains uneven.
• The report does not provide operating data at the platform, brand, or listed-company level, making it difficult to directly infer implications for individual company earnings.

What to watch

• Subsequent monthly growth in e-commerce goods sales and changes in e-commerce penetration.
• Cumulative year-on-year trends in online apparel, home goods, and food and beverage sales.
• The contribution breakdown between pricing and shipments to smartphone sales growth.
• Whether demand recovers in discretionary categories such as computers, home appliances, cosmetics, and apparel.
• Overall retail sales growth and changes in consumption stimulus policies.