Weekly New Home Sales in 50 Cities Up 23% YoY; Secondary Market Also Recovers

Overview

This is the 23rd weekly high-frequency data tracker report released by Morgan Stanley's China Real Estate team, focusing on new and secondary home transaction performance in key cities nationwide as of June 7, 2026. Data shows a significant rebound in market activity during the week, with transaction volumes for new homes in 50 cities and secondary homes in 10 cities both increasing by 23% year-over-year, while the sell-through rate in first-tier cities climbed to 100%. Despite the positive weekly data, year-to-date cumulative new home sales remained down 12% year-over-year due to calendar effects such as the misalignment of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday compared to the same period last year. The overall industry view remains 'In-Line'.

Core views

New home sales accelerated month-on-month, led by second-tier cities: For the week ended June 7, online signing transactions for new residential properties in 50 key cities grew 23% year-over-year, significantly faster than the +14% growth in the previous week. By city tier, second-tier cities saw a sharp 30% YoY increase (vs. only +8% the previous week), third-tier cities grew 22% (vs. +24% previously), while first-tier cities slowed to +1% (vs. +27% previously). Although weekly figures improved, year-to-date cumulative sales still recorded a -12% YoY decline, which the report attributes partly to the calendar misalignment of last year's Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Secondary market improved synchronously, with strong transactions in first-tier cities: Online signing transactions for secondary residential properties in 10 sample cities grew 23% YoY during the week, also a substantial improvement from the +9% growth in the previous week, pushing the year-to-date cumulative YoY change from negative to positive at +6%. Among them, weekly secondary home sales in first-tier cities surged 34% YoY (vs. +12% previously), and second-tier cities grew 17% (vs. +6% previously), demonstrating resilience in the existing housing market of core cities. Supply contraction drove up sell-through rates, price signals stabilized: Due to very few new project launches in places like Shanghai, the overall sell-through rate reached 100% for the week (vs. 53% previously), with the sell-through rate in first-tier cities rising from 63% to 100%, and no new projects launched in second-tier cities this week (sell-through rate was 42% the previous week). On the price front, the Centaline Six-City Secondary Home Asking Price Index remained unchanged at 17.5%, and the first-tier city real estate agent index rose slightly to 54.4 (from 53.8 previously), indicating marginally stabilizing seller expectations.

Analysis framework

The report adopts a high-frequency weekly data tracking method, monitoring leading indicators such as new home online signings in 50 cities, secondary home online signings in 10 cities, new project sell-through rates, and the Centaline asking price index to assess real-time real estate market sentiment. Analytically, it emphasizes combining single-week YoY growth rates with year-to-date cumulative trends to filter out short-term volatility noise; it also introduces 'calendar effects' to explain deviations in cumulative data and uses tier-based breakdowns (first/second/third-tier) to identify structural characteristics of the market recovery. Furthermore, it cross-validates transaction volumes with supply-side factors (launch volume, sell-through rate) and price-side factors (asking price index, agent sentiment) to judge the quality and sustainability of the recovery.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkVolume-price decomposition

  Decomposing market performance into two dimensions for separate tracking: transaction volume (online signing units) and price (asking price index/agent index)

  In real estate research, volume typically changes before price. The report judges whether the market is merely 'trading price for volume' or experiencing genuine supply-demand improvement by simultaneously monitoring the YoY rebound in transaction volume and the stabilization of price indices. This week's data shows rising volume and stable prices, suggesting the market is bottoming out.

• Cycle and Sentiment FrameworkSentiment Inflection Point Analysis

  Using changes in YoY growth rates of high-frequency weekly data and moving averages to identify short-term industry sentiment inflection points

  The weekly report captures marginal changes in market sentiment by comparing the acceleration or deceleration of 'this week's YoY' versus 'last week's YoY' (e.g., new home sales growth accelerating from +14% to +23%). This high-frequency tracking reflects short-term inflection points caused by policy implementation or seasonal factors more timely than monthly data.

Key data

• Weekly New Home Sales YoY in 50 Cities+23%Accelerated from +14% in the previous week, but year-to-date cumulative remains -12%
• Weekly Secondary Home Sales YoY in 10 Cities+23%Accelerated from +9% in the previous week, year-to-date cumulative turned positive to +6%
• Overall Sell-Through Rate100%Previous week was 53%, mainly due to very few new project launches in Shanghai and other areas
• Weekly Secondary Home Sales YoY in First-Tier Cities+34%Significant rebound from +12% in the previous week, leading all city tiers
• Centaline Six-City Secondary Home Asking Price Index17.5%Unchanged from the previous week, price expectations temporarily stabilized

Impact & implications

The report believes the current real estate market exhibits characteristics of 'weekly recovery but cumulative weakness'. Improved liquidity in the secondary market of first-tier and core second-tier cities is a positive signal, but a full recovery in the new home market requires further verification. The surge in sell-through rate to 100% was primarily driven by a phased contraction in supply rather than an explosive growth in demand, hence the industry view remains neutral at 'In-Line'. For investors, attention should be paid to the actual sell-through levels after the resumption of launch rhythms, and whether the gap in cumulative sales can continue to narrow after the Dragon Boat Festival.

What to watch

• Changes in subsequent weekly new home launch volumes and sell-through rates
• Trend of narrowing year-to-date cumulative sales YoY decline after the Dragon Boat Festival
• Sustainability of secondary home transaction volumes in first-tier cities
• Trend of the Centaline Real Estate Agent Index