Morgan Stanley: Humanoid Robots Embrace IPO and Mass Production Wave, Global Market Size May Reach $7.5 Trillion by 2050

Overview

This research report focuses on the latest commercial progress and capital market dynamics in the global humanoid robotics industry. Morgan Stanley points out that the second half of 2026 will see dual catalysts of IPOs and mass production for the sector, especially the listing wave of Chinese startups which will significantly boost market attention and feed back into the local supply chain. Furthermore, the report details global policy support and technological breakthroughs, providing a long-term forecast for the global Total Addressable Market (TAM) for humanoid robots through 2050.

Core views

IPO Wave and Supply Chain Tailwinds: Multiple Chinese humanoid robot integrators (e.g., Unitree Technology, QureTech, DeepRobotics) are advancing A-share or HK stock IPOs. Although high R&D and marketing expenses may temporarily suppress margins in the short term (Unitree Technology's adjusted net profit fell 53% YoY in 1Q26), current commercialization and capacity ramp-up are more critical. IPO proceeds will be primarily used for large model R&D and capacity construction, directly driving upstream component demand and constituting substantial benefit for China's local supply chain enterprises. The Chinese humanoid robot value chain index rose 8% in May, significantly outperforming the broader market. Technological Breakthroughs and Accelerated Mass Production: On the technology front, Figure AI completed a 200-hour continuous autonomous warehouse sorting livestream, demonstrating advances in operational capabilities under specific commercial scenarios. Cross-industry collaborations between traditional giants and startups (e.g., Schaeffler, Wuxi Leadshine) are accelerating data collection and application development. On the capacity side, Tesla has shifted production capacity at its Fremont factory for Model S/X models towards Optimus. Figure AI's dedicated factory has also planned annual capacity targets exceeding 10,000 units, indicating the industry is accelerating from prototype phase to large-scale mass production. Policy Protection and Long-Term TAM Space: The Chinese government has listed robots and embodied intelligence as strategic emerging industries within the '15th Five-Year Plan,' with local governments cumulatively establishing industrial funds totaling approximately RMB 187 billion. State Grid even placed a record-breaking order worth 6.8 billion RMB including 500 humanoid robots. Based on this, the report forecasts that by 2050, global cumulative adoption of humanoid robots will reach 1 billion units, with annual market revenue reaching $7.5 trillion. As the supply chain matures and production scales up, the average selling price (ASP) per unit in high-income countries is expected to drop from $200,000 in 2024 to $75,000 by 2050, while medium- and low-income countries will see ASPs drop to $21,000.

Analysis framework

The institution adopted an analysis framework of 'Event Tracking + Industry Mapping + Long-Term TAM Calculation.' First, by tracking IPO prospectuses, financing dynamics, and product testing of leading companies, it assessed the commercial life cycle stage of the industry. Second, it decomposed the industry chain into 'Brain (Software/Chips),' 'Body (Hardware Components),' and 'Integrators' to analyze value transmission paths, highlighting the investment logic that 'integrator capacity expansion benefits body component supply chains' at the current stage. Finally, based on labor replacement demands and hardware cost reduction curves in countries with different income levels, it conducted a bottom-up calculation of the global market space over the next 25 years.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkPenetration S-curve

  TAM (Total Addressable Market) Calculation and Cost Reduction Curve

  In emerging industry analysis, TAM calculation is a core method for evaluating long-term ceilings. Institutions typically combine cost reductions driven by technological maturity (e.g., assuming ASP drops from $200k to $75k) with S-curve penetration explosions to derive future market sizes, helping investors build expectations for long-term space.

• Industry/Industrial Analysis FrameworkUpstream/Midstream/Downstream Industry Chain Transmission

  Industry Chain Value Chain Decomposition (Brain/Body/Integrators)

  This decomposition method helps clarify the distribution and transmission sequence of industry profits. For instance, the report notes that at the current stage, integrator IPOs and capacity expansion will first translate into order demand for upstream 'Body' component suppliers, guiding investors to find certainty in performance realization across different links of the industry chain.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Unitree Technology (Proposed IPO)

  Top Chinese humanoid robot integrator, racing for STAR Market listing

  Strengths

  Leading shipments of quadruped/humanoid robots, maintaining high revenue growth

  Weaknesses

  High R&D and marketing expenses lead to short-term net profit decline

  Comparison

  Positioned in the same IPO racing tier alongside QureTech and DeepRobotics

  Risks

  IPO process falling behind expectations or intensified industry competition suppressing margins

• Chinese Humanoid Robot Supply Chain (Body Segment)

  Benefiting from explosive demand for components driven by integrator capacity expansion and mass production

  Strengths

  Possesses cost advantages and large-scale manufacturing capabilities, strong order certainty

  Comparison

  Compared to Brain and Integrators, the Body segment demonstrates higher certainty in performance realization during the initial mass production phase

  Risks

  Changes in technical routes leading to changes in component demand

• Figure AI / Tesla (Optimus)

  Global trendsetters for humanoid robot technology and mass production

  Strengths

  Possess powerful AI large model capabilities and automotive-grade large-scale manufacturing experience

  Comparison

  Leading global commercial scenario validation (e.g., warehouse sorting)

  Risks

  Delays in mass production progress or insufficient generalization capabilities in real-world scenarios

Key data

• 2050 Global TAM Forecast$7.5 trillionProjected global annual revenue scale for humanoid robots in 2050, with cumulative adoption reaching 1 billion units
• Unitree Technology 1Q26 PerformanceRevenue +68% YoY, Adjusted Net Profit -53% YoYHigh revenue growth but short-term profit pressure due to increased R&D and marketing expenses
• China Industrial Fund ScaleApprox. RMB 187 billionTotal fund amount established by governments at all levels to support AI and robotics industries
• Chinese Humanoid Robot Value Chain Index Performance in May+8%Calculated using equal weighting, outperformed MSCI China Index (-3%) during the same period

Impact & implications

The report argues that the humanoid robotics industry is at a critical inflection point crossing from 'technical validation' to 'commercial mass production.' The IPO wave of Chinese companies will not only inject capital into R&D but also directly drive performance release for local component supply chains through capacity expansion. For investors, the current focus should shift from pure conceptual speculation to tracking actual shipment volumes of integrators and the landing of orders for upstream core component suppliers.

Risks

• There remains a significant gap between lab/clean environments and engineering implementation in complex real-world scenarios.
• Intensifying competition among integrators and high R&D expenses may continue to suppress overall industry profitability.
• Macroeconomic conditions or policy changes may affect the continuity of supply chain orders.

What to watch

• IPO review progress and final fundraising results for Chinese humanoid robot companies (e.g., Unitree Technology)
• Capacity ramp-up and actual delivery data for dedicated factories of leading companies (e.g., Tesla, Figure AI)
• Specific details and order realization regarding the '15th Five-Year Plan' for the robotics industry by local governments at all levels in China