Goldman Sachs tracking shows divergence in China's high-frequency activity: property transactions improve, while industrial and travel indicators remain under pressure
AI summary card
Goldman Sachs tracking shows divergence in China's high-frequency activity: property transactions improve, while industrial and travel indicators remain under pressure
The report provides weekly updates on China's consumption and travel, production and investment, macro activity, and policy/market indicators, showing year-on-year improvement in property transactions while existing-home prices continue to decline, steel demand and output remain below the same period last year, and policy support is still concentrated in growth, consumption, trade, and monetary areas.
- Average daily primary home transactions in 30 cities rebounded slightly last week, with year-on-year growth of +6.3% as of April 16.
- Average daily existing-home transactions in 16 cities increased and were above the same period last year, with year-on-year growth of +14.6% as of April 16; however, NBS existing-home prices in 70 cities continued to decline in March.
- The domestic flight cancellation rate remained range-bound and above the same period last year, while domestic flight volume broadly fluctuated within a range last week and stayed below the same period last year.
- Both steel demand and steel output were below the same period last year; daily coal consumption in coastal provinces rebounded slightly last week and was above the same period last year.
- Policy announcements continued to be supportive, including urban renewal subsidies, urban-rural employment policies, import-export credit support, service sector development, and funding arrangements for consumer goods trade-in programs.
Report interpretation
Overview
This is a weekly Goldman Sachs tracking report on China's economic activity and policy, updating four groups of high-frequency indicators: consumption and travel, production and investment, other macro activity, and markets and policy. The report specifically notes that, in order to more closely track the impact of energy supply shocks on China's economic activity, this tracker is currently published on a weekly basis.
Core views
The core picture presented by the report is that property transactions are improving at the margin but the price side remains weak; some travel indicators are still below or weaker than the same period last year; energy, chemicals, and import price indicators suggest that cost-side pressures still warrant monitoring; on the production side, steel demand and output are below the same period last year, but daily coal consumption in coastal provinces and port-related indicators have improved; on the policy side, the stance remains supportive of growth, consumption, trade, price stability, and monetary stability.
Analysis framework
The report uses a high-frequency data tracking framework, grouping indicators such as property transactions and prices, transportation and travel, energy and chemical prices, consumer confidence, steel demand and output, coal consumption, special bonds, port throughput, oil demand, the RMB exchange rate, and policy announcements, and judges marginal changes in economic activity through year-on-year, sequential, or relative-to-last-year changes.
Methodology notes
Weekly high-frequency indicator set
Short-term changes in China's economic activity are observed through high-frequency indicators such as real estate, travel, industry, energy, ports, exchange rates, and policy announcements.
Policy event table
Major macro policy announcements since February are compiled and categorized by growth, consumption, trade, prices, currency, fiscal, housing, and other types.
CNY, CFETS basket, 30-year China government bond yield
Changes in the RMB against the US dollar, the CFETS basket, and long-term government bond yields are used to monitor markets and the policy environment.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- China macro assetsDirectly related
- Strengths
- High-frequency indicators cover real estate, travel, industry, ports, exchange rates, and policy, helping to quickly gauge economic momentum.
- Weaknesses
- Many indicators are short-term weekly data and are easily affected by seasonality and sample definitions.
- Comparison
- Compared with single monthly macro data points, weekly high-frequency tracking is timelier but less stable.
- Risks
- If high-frequency improvement cannot be sustained, the macro recovery view may be revised down.
- Real estate chainHighly related
- Strengths
- Year-on-year improvement in both primary and existing-home transactions shows marginal warming on the transaction side.
- Weaknesses
- Existing-home prices continue to fall, indicating that price-side pressure has not yet been relieved.
- Comparison
- The coexistence of improving transactions and falling prices suggests an uneven market recovery.
- Risks
- If prices continue to decline, the improvement in transactions may provide only limited support for confidence in the real estate chain.
- Steel and industrial cycleHighly related
- Strengths
- Daily coal consumption is above the same period last year, suggesting support for some industrial activity.
- Weaknesses
- Both steel demand and output are below the same period last year.
- Comparison
- The improvement in energy consumption contrasts with weakness in steel.
- Risks
- Insufficient demand from infrastructure, real estate, or manufacturing may continue to weigh on the steel chain.
- RMB and China ratesDirectly related
- Strengths
- CNY appreciated against USD, and the 30-year CGB yield edged higher, providing market price signals.
- Weaknesses
- CNY depreciated slightly against the CFETS basket, meaning the exchange-rate performance was not broadly stronger across the board.
- Comparison
- The bilateral USD exchange rate and the basket exchange rate are not moving in exactly the same direction.
- Risks
- The external USD environment, trade shocks, or changes in policy expectations may amplify exchange-rate volatility.
- Energy and chemicalsRelated
- Strengths
- The report tracks gasoline and diesel, sulfuric acid, energy and plastic import prices, refined oil export prices, and oil demand.
- Weaknesses
- Some price increases may reflect cost pressure rather than stronger end demand.
- Comparison
- Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were flat, while some chemical and import prices rose.
- Risks
- Energy supply shocks and price volatility may continue to affect China's economic activity.
Key data
- Average daily primary home transactions in 30 cities+6.3% year-on-year as of April 167-day moving average; relative to the same period in 2025.
- Average daily existing-home transactions in 16 cities+14.6% year-on-year as of April 167-day moving average; relative to the same period in 2025.
- NBS existing-home prices in 70 citiescontinued to decline in MarchThe chart title in the report shows that prices continued to trend downward.
- Rental yield and 30-year China government bond yieldRental yields in large cities were broadly stable from February to March, while the 30-year CGB yield edged higherUsed to compare real estate rental returns with long-term bond yields.
- Domestic gasoline and diesel pricesunchanged from last weekThe report tracks domestic refined oil prices.
- Sulfuric acid pricecontinued to rise over the past weekPrices of other highly exposed chemical products have shown some stabilization.
- Energy and plastic import pricesrose in MarchReflecting changes in related import costs.
- Refined oil export pricesrose in MarchCharts in the report show higher export prices for refined petroleum products.
- Morning Consult consumer confidencerose slightly over the past weekConsumer confidence showed marginal improvement.
- Steel demandbelow the same period last yearA key industrial indicator in the production and investment section.
- Steel outputbelow the same period last yearTogether with steel demand, it indicates pressure on the industrial side.
- Daily coal consumption in coastal provincesrebounded slightly over the past week and was above the same period last yearAn indicator related to electricity usage and industrial activity.
- Local government special bond issuanceRMB 1.26bn year-to-dateOriginal unit and value retained.
- Official port container throughputrose slightly over the past week and was above the same period last yearA high-frequency indicator related to trade and logistics.
- Cargo volume of departing vessels at 20 major portsincreased and was above last year's levelReflecting improvement in port freight activity.
- China oil demand nowcastlatest reading edged down to 17.4mb/dThe report uses data sources such as Kpler, ICIS, Oilchem, and IEA.
- CNY exchange rateappreciated against USD over the past week and depreciated slightly against the CFETS basketExchange-rate monitoring in the markets and policy section.
- Countercyclical factor implied by the USDCNY fixingrose slightly over the past weekReflecting observations related to exchange-rate policy.
Impact & implications
For investment research, this report supports a view of "marginal divergence in economic activity, with policy still acting as a backstop": some high-frequency activities such as property transactions and port logistics have improved, but housing prices, steel, travel, and some cost indicators still suggest an uneven demand recovery. Policy announcements densely cover growth, consumption, trade, prices, currency, and housing, indicating that macro policy is still using structural tools to support domestic demand and external trade stability.
Risks
- High-frequency data may be affected by seasonality, holidays, sample coverage, and data source adjustments.
- If improving property transactions fail to stabilize prices, the recovery of the real estate chain may not be solid.
- Steel demand and output are below the same period last year, indicating continued downside pressure on the industrial side.
- Rising energy, chemical, and import prices may create cost pressure.
- Exchange-rate and policy signals may be affected by changes in the external environment and regulatory stance.
- Some data sources in the report have stopped or paused updates, such as certain home price series from Beike, Guoxinda, and Zhuge, which may affect historical comparability.
What to watch
- Whether the year-on-year improvement in subsequent primary and existing-home transactions can continue.
- Whether NBS existing-home prices in 70 cities continue to fall.
- Whether domestic flights, traffic congestion, and consumer confidence continue to improve.
- Whether the divergence among steel demand, steel output, and daily coal consumption in coastal provinces narrows.
- The pace of implementation for policies such as local government special bond issuance and urban renewal subsidies.
- Port container throughput, cargo volume of departing vessels, and the effects of trade-related policies.
- Whether China's oil demand nowcast continues to decline or rebounds again.
- Changes in CNY against USD, the CFETS basket, and the countercyclical factor implied by the USDCNY fixing.