Shanghai Jinjiang Int’l Hotels: 4Q25 results beat expectations, but Goldman still maintains a relatively negative view

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs’ earnings review of Shanghai Jinjiang Int’l Hotels (600754.SS). It notes that the company’s 4Q25 results came in above expectations due to higher CRS booking fees. In 1Q26, RevPAR grew 4%, but hotel additions still lag peers. Despite the short-term upside surprise, Goldman keeps a SELL rating and a 12-month target price of Rmb25.00.

Core views

The key view is that the company delivered a positive earnings surprise in the near term, but the improvement in fundamentals is not strong enough to support the current valuation. RevPAR has already grown, but hotel expansion remains weaker than peers. At the same time, GS Factor Profile shows the company screening high on valuation multiples but relatively low on growth, financial return, and composite rankings. The current share price of Rmb28.15 is above the Rmb25.00 target price, implying 11.2% downside.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes the company using FY25 results, 1Q26 operating metrics, relative peer performance, share price performance, target price history, and Goldman’s factor framework. Key focus areas include CRS booking fees, RevPAR, hotel addition pace, Louvre Europe business recovery, debt repayment, and relative valuation.

Methodology notes

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs factor profile

  Goldman compares stocks’ positions versus the market and industry peers using growth, financial return, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles. In this report, 600754.SS ranks around the 20th percentile for growth, 20th percentile for financial return, 80th percentile for valuation multiples, and 30th percentile overall versus Asia ex. Japan Coverage; versus Asia Leisure, it ranks around the 40th percentile for growth, 20th percentile for financial return, 90th percentile for valuation multiples, and 40th percentile overall.

• Valuation and rating12-month target price

  Target price and total return potential

  Goldman measures upside or downside by comparing the current share price with the 12-month target price. In this report, the current price is Rmb28.15 and the target price is Rmb25.00, implying 11.2% downside.

• M&A assessmentM&A Rank

  M&A probability tiers

  Goldman discloses an M&A framework that classifies companies from 1 to 3, where 1 indicates a higher probability of acquisition, 2 indicates a medium probability, and 3 indicates a lower probability. The materials do not show this company’s specific M&A rank.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Shanghai Jinjiang Int’l Hotels (600754.SS)

  Research coverage

  Strengths

  4Q25 results beat expectations; 1Q26 RevPAR grew 4%; if macro conditions improve, the European Louvre business recovers, or debt repayment accelerates, fundamentals could improve.

  Weaknesses

  Hotel additions still lag peers; growth and financial return factor percentiles are low; relative valuation percentile is high.

  Comparison

  Versus Asia ex. Japan Coverage and Asia Leisure, the company’s valuation multiple percentile is in the 80th to 90th percentile range, while its growth, financial return, and composite percentiles are lower.

  Risks

  Upside risks include stronger-than-expected macro conditions driving faster RevPAR growth, a quicker-than-expected recovery in the Louvre Europe business, and faster deleveraging through debt swaps or other capital allocation measures.

Key data

• Current priceRmb28.15Disclosed on the cover page.
• 12-month target priceRmb25.00Disclosed on the cover page.
• Implied downside11.2%Derived from the downside disclosed in the report.
• Analyst ratingSELLThe report section shows SELL.
• 1Q26 RevPAR+4%The title discloses 1Q26 RevPAR growth of 4%.
• 3-month absolute performance11.4%Disclosed in the price performance chart.
• 6-month absolute performance22.1%Disclosed in the price performance chart.
• 12-month absolute performance6.9%Disclosed in the price performance chart.
• 12-month performance versus CSI 300-7.3%Disclosed in the price performance chart.

Impact & implications

The report is mildly negative for investors: although the 4Q25 earnings beat and 1Q26 RevPAR growth indicate signs of operating recovery, hotel additions continue to lag peers, growth and financial return percentiles are low, and valuation multiples are high, leading Goldman to believe the stock still faces downside risk.

Risks

• Better-than-expected macro conditions driving faster-than-expected RevPAR growth.
• A faster-than-expected turnaround in the Louvre Europe business.
• Faster debt repayment through debt swaps or other capital allocation measures.

What to watch

• Whether RevPAR growth continues in 1Q26 and subsequent quarters.
• Whether hotel additions can narrow the gap versus peers.
• Whether the rise in CRS booking fees is sustainable.
• Progress in recovering the Louvre Europe business.
• Debt repayment and capital allocation plans.
• Changes in the share price relative to the Rmb25.00 target price.