Goldman Sachs Maintains Buy on Xiaomi; SkyNomad and MiMo AI Progress Provide Third-Quarter Catalysts

Overview

This report focuses on Xiaomi Group’s clearer product positioning before the SkyNomad launch and the growth in MiMo model calls, cost efficiency, and commercialization progress. Goldman Sachs believes the SkyNomad lineup, through complementary models such as N70 and N90, covers a wider range of SUV demand, particularly for family use, city flexible mobility, camping, and reconfigurable space scenarios; at the same time, Xiaomi’s AI capability is forming commercialization paths in consumer devices, enterprise, and the physical world.

Core views

Key views include: first, SkyNomad will be an important third-quarter catalyst, with product positioning expanding from pure family or business use to multi-scenario smart mobility; second, long all-electric range, larger battery capacity, lightweight structure, and configurable interior will help attract replacement demand from fuel vehicles and range-extended SUV demand; third, MiMo has made clear progress in API calls, token usage, cache hit rates, throughput capacity, and V3 architecture evolution, and the market may be undervaluing Xiaomi’s AI ecosystem; fourth, Xiaomi’s ‘People-Car-Home’ strategy, consumer device scale, AIoT ecosystem, and EV supply-chain participation support long-term competitiveness.

Analysis framework

The report analyzes the incremental value of Xiaomi’s automotive and AI businesses by combining model announcements, peer comparison, SUV market size by price band, delivery volume scenario modeling, AI API/token usage trends, LLM cost-efficiency comparison, and the SOTP valuation framework.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsSOTP Valuation

  Sum-of-the-parts valuation

  The HK$40 target price is based on the SOTP approach: Xiaomi’s core business is valued at 16x targeted 12-month EV/NOPAT, Xiaomi EV is valued at US$42bn by DCF, and a 10% holding-company discount is applied.

• scenario_analysisDelivery Volume Scenario Analysis

  Base case and bull sales scenarios

  The base case in the report expects SkyNomad deliveries of 110k/240k in 2026E/2027E; in a bull case where Xiaomi captures some mass-market replacement and fuel-vehicle demand, potential 2027 sales are about 500k.

• market_sizingSUV TAM Analysis

  Market sizing by powertrain and launch price ranges

  The report uses the Rmb100-400k and Rmb200-400k segments in the Chinese SUV market after excluding BEVs to evaluate the addressable market SkyNomad can enter.

• factor_modelGS Factor Profile

  Growth, Return, Valuation multiple, and composite percentile comparisons

  Goldman’s factor framework uses analyst forecasts to standardize growth, return, and valuation multiple indicators for Xiaomi and convert them into percentiles for comparison with the market and industry peers.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK)

  Core coverage target

  Strengths

  Consumer electronics scale, AIoT ecosystem, EV supply-chain participation, strong balance sheet, SkyNomad product expansion, and MiMo AI progress.

  Weaknesses

  Smartphone and EV gross margins may come under pressure, and EV execution and high-end brand upgrading still need to be proven.

  Comparison

  SkyNomad N70 is benchmarked against Li Auto L6/L7 and Seres AITO M6/M7, while N90 is benchmarked against Li Auto L9, Seres AITO M9, Zeekr 9X, and peers.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition, sales share below expectations, margin pressure, geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty, macro weakness, and foreign exchange volatility.

• Harbin Dongan Auto Engine (600178.SS)

  Supplier related to SkyNomad range extender, not covered by the report

  Strengths

  Provides 1.5T, 112kW range extenders.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not cover this company or issue an investment rating on it.

  Comparison

  Appears only as SkyNomad supply-chain information.

  Risks

  No additional company-level risk disclosures.

Key data

• RatingBuyGoldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Xiaomi.
• 12-Month Target PriceHK$40Based on the SOTP valuation method.
• Current PriceHK$25.84The price disclosed in the report.
• SkyNomad Deliveries 2026E/2027E110k/240kGoldman Sachs base-case forecast.
• SkyNomad Bull Case 2027 Salesabout 500kAssuming Xiaomi captures some replacement and fuel-vehicle demand.
• SkyNomad Battery CapacityN70 is 52/76kWh, N90 is 76kWhSupports about 265-370 km pure-electric range.
• MiMo API Request Growthup 27x in June versus JanuaryCompany disclosed metric; the report uses this to estimate token run rate.
• Estimated MiMo Daily Token Run Rateabout 6-7 trillionEstimated by Goldman based on API calls and token consumption.
• Average Daily MiMo Tokens on OpenRouterabout 600 billionJune level, about 10% of Goldman’s estimated total MiMo token usage.
• MiMo-V2.5-Pro-UltraSpeed PricingUS$1.3/US$2.6 per 1M input/output tokensThe report says this high-throughput model is priced at about three times standard V2.5-Pro.

Impact & implications

If SkyNomad pricing, durability, supply chain ramp-up, and marketing execution proceed smoothly, Xiaomi has an opportunity to expand its automotive scale in China’s mid-to-premium SUV and range-extender segments, using automobiles as an important entry point into the ‘People-Car-Home’ ecosystem. On the AI side, MiMo usage growth, improved cost efficiency, and high-throughput product pricing capability may strengthen market perception of Xiaomi’s AI commercialization and physical intelligence ecosystem.

Risks

• Competition in the global smartphone industry intensifies and market-share gains are weaker than expected.
• Smartphone or EV gross margins are under greater pressure than expected.
• Xiaomi's brand up-positioning and EV execution are below expectations.
• Increasing geopolitical risk and regulatory uncertainty.
• A weakening macro environment with smartphone and IoT demand below expectations.
• Foreign exchange volatility impacts financial performance.
• Mechanical durability of SkyNomad’s configurable interior and range-extended system needs to be proven.
• Execution risk in order momentum, capacity ramp, and marketing strategy around new model launch.

What to watch

• SkyNomad is expected to be officially launched before the end of August.
• Pricing range, configuration differences, and order performance of SkyNomad N70/N90.
• User feedback on configurable cabin, range-extender system, and long-range selling points.
• Xiaomi EV capacity ramp and ability to smooth early-order peak demand.
• MiMo-V3 architecture, Hysparse, and cost-efficiency gains from 11:1 sparsity.
• Monetization progress of MiMo in developer, enterprise, device, and physical-world scenarios.