May Global Semiconductor Sales Exceeded Seasonality by a Wide Margin, with Memory Continuing to Lead Growth

Overview

The report tracks global semiconductor sales, shipments, ASP, product categories, end markets, and regional performance as of May 2026, based on monthly WSTS data published by SIA. The key takeaway is that industry revenue growth was materially stronger than typical seasonality and highly concentrated in memory, especially improvements in DRAM and NAND pricing and bit shipments.

Core views

Bernstein believes that the global semiconductor industry in May 2026 remained in a strong uptrend. Total sales rose 118.8% year-over-year, and three-month rolling sales growth was 35.6%, far above the historical normal mid-single-digit pace of about 5.0%. Memory was the largest driver, with sales up 325.7% year-over-year, but non-memory sales growth of 34.0% year-over-year also indicates that industry expansion has meaningful breadth. On a month-over-month basis, overall sales exceeded seasonality, but performance differed by product group: NAND and DSP outperformed normal seasonality, while DRAM, despite rising 27.7% MoM, was below the normal 41.9% seasonal pattern, and categories such as analog, optoelectronics, discretes, and sensors were relatively weak.

Analysis framework

The report uses WSTS monthly industry data to compare monthly year-over-year, month-over-month, and three-month rolling changes with historical seasonal averages, and decomposes sales growth into shipment and ASP contributions. Analysis dimensions include product groups, regions, end-markets, and select coverage of company ratings and target-price snapshots.

Methodology notes

• Industry Monthly TrackingWSTS Sales, Shipment, and ASP Tracking

  Use WSTS monthly data to observe changes in semiconductor industry revenue, unit shipments, and average selling price.

  The report compares May 2026 data with the prior month, prior year, and historical May averages, assessing whether growth exceeds normal seasonality and determining whether growth came from shipment volume or price.

• Seasonality ComparisonMoM versus typical seasonal pattern

  Compare the current month's MoM change with the historical average MoM change for the same period.

  For example, total sales rose 16.1% MoM in May, above the historical average May MoM of 8.5%; NAND rose 40.7% MoM, above the usual 26.0%, while DRAM rose 27.7% MoM, below the usual 41.9%.

• Growth DecompositionMemory revenue growth decomposition

  Decompose the contribution of memory to semiconductor revenue growth.

  The report states that memory has contributed roughly $200 billion in incremental sales year-to-date, with memory pricing alone accounting for about two-thirds of overall industry revenue growth.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Global Semiconductor Industry

  Direct tracking subject

  Strengths

  Total sales grew strongly both year-over-year and month-over-month, with three-month rolling performance significantly better than historical norms.

  Weaknesses

  MoM growth was driven more by ASP, while unit shipments declined MoM, indicating weaker demand-side momentum than revenue-side momentum.

  Comparison

  MoM growth in May was 16.1%, above the historical average May 8.5%; YoY growth was 118.8%, above April's 106.4%.

  Risks

  If memory prices fall or AI demand slows, industry revenue growth could quickly decelerate.

• Memory

  Core growth driver

  Strengths

  Sales rose 325.7% year-over-year, contributing about $200 billion in incremental revenue year-to-date, with both DRAM and NAND bit shipments and ASP rising MoM.

  Weaknesses

  Growth is highly price-dependent, with DRAM MoM growth high but below normal seasonality.

  Comparison

  NAND rose 40.7% MoM, above the typical 26.0%; DRAM rose 27.7% MoM, below the typical 41.9%.

  Risks

  A reversal in the pricing cycle, an end to inventory rebuild, or the release of incremental supply could reduce revenue resilience.

• Non-memory Semiconductors

  Secondary growth contributor

  Strengths

  Sales still grew 34.0% year-over-year after excluding memory, indicating industry demand is not entirely constrained to memory.

  Weaknesses

  Several product groups were weaker MoM versus normal seasonality, including analog, discretes, optoelectronics, and sensors.

  Comparison

  Non-memory growth was significantly below memory growth, but still represented strong year-over-year expansion.

  Risks

  If end-use demand recovery remains uneven, valuation and earnings expectations for non-memory segments may diverge.

• Semiconductor Capital Equipment

  Indirectly benefits from memory and advanced-node capex

  Strengths

  The report maintains Outperform for multiple equipment names including AMAT, LRCX, KLAC, ASML, DISCO, and Tokyo Electron, with logic centered on WFE growth, GAA, advanced packaging, HBM, and NAND upgrade demand.

  Weaknesses

  Capex cycles are highly sensitive to end demand, memory prices, and customer capex timing.

  Comparison

  Compared with some mature-cycle segments, equipment companies have stronger support from AI, HBM, and advanced-node capacity expansion narratives.

  Risks

  Wafer-fab capex cuts, China substitution risk, export controls, or delayed customer orders.

• Application-Specific ICs and End Markets

  Reflects downstream demand structure

  Strengths

  Application-specific IC sales rose 2.4% MoM, roughly in line with the typical 3.0% historical pattern; wired communications rose 12.7% MoM, stronger than the typical 6.9%.

  Weaknesses

  Consumer, computing and peripherals, wireless, auto, general purpose, and others were below normal seasonality.

  Comparison

  End-market performance was materially mixed, with wired communications strong and automobiles and wireless relatively weak.

  Risks

  If smartphone, auto, and consumer electronics demand remains below normal seasonality, the breadth of non-memory recovery could be limited.

Key data

• Global Semiconductor Sales YoY Growth118.8%In May 2026, year-over-year growth was above April's 106.4%.
• Global Semiconductor Sales MoM Growth16.1%Above the historical typical May MoM growth of 8.5%.
• Memory Sales YoY Growth325.7%The primary source of this cycle's overall year-over-year industry growth.
• Non-memory Sales YoY Growth34.0%Remained strong even after excluding memory.
• Industry Unit Shipment MoM Change-2.7%Total shipments declined, indicating that revenue growth was mainly driven by ASP.
• Industry ASP MoM Change19.3%Six product groups saw ASP increases, while five product groups saw ASP declines.
• Industry ASP YoY Change94.2%Primarily supported by higher memory prices.
• DRAM Bit Shipment and ASP MoMShipments +13.2%, ASP +12.9%Measured on a bit basis.
• NAND Bit Shipment and ASP MoMShipments +19.5%, ASP +17.8%NAND's monthly sales performance outpaced normal seasonality.
• China Region Sales MoM Growth21.5%Among major regions, it was among the higher MoM increases.

Impact & implications

The data is broadly constructive for the semiconductor value chain, especially for memory, AI computing, advanced packaging, and wafer-fab equipment-related assets. Because revenue growth is mainly driven by ASP, particularly memory prices, the investment implications favor beneficiaries of price elasticity and tight supply-demand balance rather than a uniform recovery across all semiconductor subsectors. Non-memory sales remain strong year-over-year, but analog, optoelectronics, discretes, and some end-use areas showed weaker MoM performance than normal seasonality, suggesting structural divergence in cyclical recovery.

Risks

• Memory price increases were the main industry growth driver, so if prices correct lower, industry sales and ASP growth could be reduced materially.
• Industry unit shipments declined 2.7% MoM in May, indicating that the quantity side of demand is not as strong as the revenue side.
• Several product groups were below normal seasonality on a MoM basis, including analog, discretes, optoelectronics, sensors, and some DRAM performance.
• Downstream end-market performance was uneven, with Consumer, wireless communications, and autos below normal seasonality.
• The report covers multiple companies and regions; single-name investment conclusions still require judgment on valuation, order book, inventories, and company-specific risks.

What to watch

• Whether memory ASP continues to rise in subsequent monthly WSTS data, especially bit-price changes for DRAM and NAND.
• Whether unit shipments can turn from MoM decline to improvement, validating whether revenue growth expands from price-led to demand-led.
• Whether non-memory sales growth remains robust year-over-year, and whether segments like analog, MCU, discretes, and sensors repair.
• Whether sales momentum in China, the Americas, and Asia Pacific remains high or reverts to seasonal weakness.
• The extent to which AI servers, HBM, advanced packaging, and WFE capex support orders and earnings expectations for equipment companies.