China Property Chartbook: A bottoming watch on sales, prices, inventory, policies, and long-term demand

Overview

This is a chartbook on China’s real estate industry titled “China Property Chartbook: All the charts you need.” The report is primarily chart- and data-driven, building a real estate cycle observation framework around national forecasts, sales, price bottoming, construction, supply, inventory, land, policy, risk assessment, and long-term forecasts. The research target is not a single company, but the China real estate market and the related coverage universe of developers, property management companies, and real estate equities.

Core views

The core view of the report is that China’s real estate sector remains in a cyclical bottoming and structural adjustment phase. Sales, prices, inventory, and the land market still require continued validation, but tier-1 cities, high-frequency existing home data, policy tools, special-purpose local government bonds, and long-term housing demand may become key signals to watch for stabilization. The report does not provide a clear buy or sell conclusion, but instead offers a basis for judging the bottom, policy impact, and long-term demand structure through multidimensional charts.

Analysis framework

The analytical approach is mainly chart-based tracking, combining official data and high-frequency data. On the sales side, it uses indicators such as NBS nationwide sales, Top 100 developers’ contracted sales, weekly new home sales in 60 cities, and existing home transactions in 12 or 26 cities; on the price side, it tracks new home and existing home prices in tier-1 cities, the Iceberg Index listing prices, and the performance of different total-price segments in Shanghai and Shenzhen; on the demand side, it uses assumptions on household formation, average living space, rental yields, city tiers, and population changes; on the policy side, it watches PBOC tools, special-purpose local government bonds, acquisition of existing commercial housing inventory, and urban village redevelopment.

Methodology notes

• Cycle comparisonProperty downturn cycle comparison

  Use historical property downturn cycles to measure the duration and price adjustment magnitude of the current China real estate cycle.

  The report compares the current Mainland China cycle with Japan 1991-2009, Hong Kong SAR 1997-2003 and 2019-2025, and the United States 2006-2012, and lists the average downturn duration and retracement ratio after excluding outliers.

• High-frequency dataIceberg Index

  Use real-time existing home transactions, listings volume, and listing price changes to observe marginal market momentum.

  The report uses real-time existing home sales and listing indicators across 10-city, 12-city, and 26-city samples, and notes that such data may not necessarily represent official sales trends.

• Demand estimationHousehold formation demand model

  Estimate medium- to long-term new home demand using the number of newly formed households, average living space, and new home market share.

  The report discloses assumptions including China’s average living space of 110 square meters, 8.3 million household formations, and a 70% new home market share, resulting in an estimated new home demand of 636 million square meters of GFA.

• Policy impactUrban village redevelopment and special-purpose local government bond scenarios

  Assess the potential contribution of policies to development investment and sales through demolition, cash compensation, reconstruction ratios, and fund usage.

  The report explicitly states that some urban village redevelopment estimates represent a maximum scenario rather than a base-case scenario, and assumes that all cash compensation flows into the primary private residential market, assumptions that may be aggressive in practice.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• China real estate sector

  Core research target

  Strengths

  Policy tools continue to be rolled out, while urban village redevelopment, special-purpose local government bonds, and long-term household formation demand provide potential support.

  Weaknesses

  Sales and prices remain in an adjustment phase, and inventory and existing home listing pressure remain high in some cities.

  Comparison

  The report compares the current Mainland China downturn with historical property cycles in Japan, Hong Kong SAR, and the United States.

  Risks

  If sales fail to stabilize, prices continue to fall, or policy transmission is weaker than expected, the sector’s recovery timeline may be extended.

• Tier-1 city residential market

  Key observation sample

  Strengths

  The report focuses on Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and signs of stabilization in Shanghai existing home prices.

  Weaknesses

  Existing home prices and listing volumes in tier-1 cities still show divergence, and pressure may differ across price bands.

  Comparison

  Tier-1 cities are compared with nationwide, tier-2, and tier-3/4 city sales and price performance.

  Risks

  If listing volumes remain high while transactions are insufficient, price stabilization may be difficult to sustain.

• Property developers and property management companies

  Related equity coverage universe

  Strengths

  Non-distressed developers, leading companies, and property management firms may relatively benefit from industry consolidation and policy support.

  Weaknesses

  Developer credit risk, declining contracted sales, and financing pressure remain key constraints.

  Comparison

  The disclosure section lists multiple Hong Kong- and A-share property and property management companies within analyst coverage.

  Risks

  Public debt defaults, exchange offers, or restructuring risks may affect valuations and liquidity.

• Special-purpose local government bonds and policy funds

  Policy transmission tools

  Strengths

  They can be used for land reserves, acquisition of existing commercial housing inventory, and support for destocking.

  Weaknesses

  The disclosed issuance scale related to acquiring existing commercial housing inventory is limited, and the pace of actual implementation still needs tracking.

  Comparison

  The report observes PBOC tools, special-purpose local government bonds, and real estate policy easing events within the same policy framework.

  Risks

  If project returns, local fiscal capacity, or execution efficiency are insufficient, policy effects may fall short of the modeled scenarios.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-30Date corresponding to the filename and report metadata.
• National forecast-related figures2025、-30%、-49%These key figures were extracted from the national forecast section in the source text, but chart context is limited and the specific meanings should be confirmed against the original charts.
• Average duration of historical downturn cycles40 monthsThe report states “Average (excl. outliers): 40 months” in the price bottom section.
• Average retracement ratio of prior gains52%The report states “Average (excl. outliers): 52%”.
• Current housing price adjustment in Mainland China-31%The bottoming section states “Mainland China (2021-Current) -31%”.
• Housing price adjustment in tier-1 cities-43%The bottoming section states “Tier-1 cities (July 2021-Current) -43%”.
• Household formation demand8.3百万户 × 110平方米 = 909百万平方米GFAThe report discloses this calculation path in the household formation methodology.
• Demand after assuming new home market share636百万平方米GFAThe report assumes primary homes account for a 70% market share.
• Special-purpose local government bond issuance for acquiring existing commercial housing inventoryRmb 1,920 mnThe report lists the total related issuance amount as of June 10, 2025.
• Long-term forecast range2025E-2040EThe long-term forecast charts show 2025E to 2040E and break down demand sources and sales structure.

Impact & implications

For investors, the significance of the report lies in breaking down the judgment of China real estate’s bottom into trackable indicators: whether sales YoY continues to improve, whether existing home listings and transactions stabilize simultaneously, whether prices in tier-1 cities stabilize, whether inventory months decline, whether land sales and development investment recover, and whether policy funds are truly converted into destocking or new home demand. Since the report does not provide stock ratings, its conclusions are more suitable as industry-cycle and asset-allocation context rather than as a single trade recommendation.

Risks

• High-frequency existing home data may not necessarily represent official sales trends, and sample and methodology biases exist.
• Estimates for household formation, urban village redevelopment, and cash compensation rely on strong assumptions, and actual conversion rates may be lower than model scenarios.
• If sales and housing prices continue to decline, inventory destocking and developers’ cash flow pressure may intensify.
• There is uncertainty around the implementation pace, funding scale, and usage efficiency of policy tools.
• Developer credit events, public debt defaults, exchanges, or restructurings may continue to affect industry confidence.

What to watch

• YoY changes in NBS nationwide residential sales, Top 100 developers’ contracted sales, and weekly new home sales in 60 cities.
• Whether the Iceberg Index’s existing home transactions, listing volumes, and listing price index continue to improve.
• Whether new home and existing home prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen stabilize.
• Changes in inventory months, existing home listing volumes, and land sales value.
• The actual issuance and implementation scale of PBOC monetary policy tools, special-purpose local government bonds, and projects acquiring existing commercial housing inventory.
• Whether urban village redevelopment translates into genuine new home demand and contributions to development investment.
• Changes in the contribution of household formation, upgrade demand, resettlement, and urbanization within the 2025E-2040E long-term demand structure.