Hesai launches 6D full-color SPAD-SoC and next-generation LiDAR; Deutsche Bank maintains Buy
AI summary card
Hesai launches 6D full-color SPAD-SoC and next-generation LiDAR; Deutsche Bank maintains Buy
Deutsche Bank believes Hesai is strengthening its growth path in autonomous driving and physical AI hardware through the Picasso 6D full-color LiDAR chip, 4320-line ETX, KOSMO spatial data-capture hardware, and expansion into robotic joint actuators.
- The Picasso SPAD-SoC achieves native chip-level fusion of XYZ spatial information and RGB color information, enabling direct generation of color point clouds.
- The next-generation ETX is planned to support 1080-, 2160-, or 4320-line configurations, with a detection range of 400 meters at 10% reflectivity, and is expected to enter mass production in 2H26.
- ATX entered mass production in April, and the company guides for deliveries of more than 2 million units in 2026, with existing orders exceeding 6 million units.
- KOSMO is positioned as the "physical AI eye," with an expected ASP of about RMB 100,000, initially targeting enterprise scenarios such as film production, interactive gaming, and livestreaming.
- Deutsche Bank assigns a Buy rating with a 12-month target price of USD 26.00, implying about 5.9% upside versus the price of USD 24.54 on April 16, 2026.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report is a company update by Deutsche Bank on Hesai, centered on the new technologies and products launched at the April 17 investor day. The report highlights that Hesai is extending beyond its leadership in automotive and robotics LiDAR into physical AI data-capture hardware and robotic actuator modules. Its technology roadmap includes the Picasso 6D full-color SPAD-SoC, the upgraded ETX series, ATX mass production, FTX blind-spot LiDAR mass production, and the KOSMO product.
Core views
Deutsche Bank maintains its Buy view on Hesai. Its bullish thesis includes: Hesai's roughly 61% share in the L4 autonomous mobility LiDAR market and about 33% share in the global ADAS LiDAR market; rising penetration of advanced autonomous driving and falling LiDAR prices will drive demand for ADAS LiDAR in China; and the company is enhancing differentiation through integration of chips, sensors, and algorithms while expanding into physical AI and robotics hardware as new growth curves.
Analysis framework
The report analyzes product technology progress, mass-production timing, order guidance, industry penetration trends, market share, and financial forecasts, and derives the target price using a DCF valuation framework. The focus is not on a short-term earnings review, but on assessing how the new product platforms may support revenue, margins, and valuation from 2026 to 2028.
Methodology notes
Discounted cash flow valuation
Deutsche Bank believes Hesai remains in an early growth stage, so a five-year forecast-period DCF is more suitable for capturing the maturation of the two major trends of automotive electrification and intelligentization in China; key assumptions include a 7.5% WACC, a 0.5% terminal growth rate, a 3.5% risk-free rate, and a 5.0% market risk premium.
Fusion of LiDAR and cameras under bird's-eye view
The report argues that LiDAR is a key sensor in advanced autonomous driving: it is more precise than millimeter-wave radar and less dependent on lighting conditions than cameras; fusion with cameras can improve 3D object detection accuracy.
Asset mapping & comparison
Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).
- Hesai / HSAI.OQCovered target
- Strengths
- Global LiDAR leader; possesses full-stack in-house R&D capabilities; product presence across ADAS, L4 autonomous driving, and robotics scenarios; clear order pipeline and mass-production schedule for new products.
- Weaknesses
- Valuation still depends on the delivery of high growth; some new products such as ETX, KOSMO, and robotic actuators are still at a relatively early stage of commercialization.
- Comparison
- The report compares Hesai's share price performance with the NASDAQ 100 rebased index, showing greater volatility and larger gains for Hesai over the historical period.
- Risks
- Aggressive price cuts and competitive new products from peers may lead to share loss; slower-than-expected development of downstream L4 operators may weigh on LiDAR sales.
- NASDAQ 100Price performance benchmark
- Strengths
- Used as a market benchmark to observe Hesai's relative performance.
- Weaknesses
- Cannot reflect changes in Hesai's own fundamentals.
- Comparison
- The chart shows that Hesai has higher volatility and stronger phase-specific performance relative to the NASDAQ 100.
- Risks
- Changes in market risk appetite may affect growth-stock valuations.
Key data
- Rating and target priceBuy; target price USD 26.00; current price USD 24.54The price date is April 16, 2026, and the target price is on a 12-month basis.
- ATX mass production and ordersMore than 2 million units expected to be delivered in 2026; existing orders exceed 6 million unitsATX entered mass production in April.
- ETX technical specifications1080, 2160, or 4320 lines; 400-meter detection range at 10% reflectivityExpected to enter mass production in 2H26, and guided to be deployed in multiple flagship models in 2027 and 2028.
- KOSMO pricingExpected ASP of about RMB 100,000Positioned as physical AI spatial data-capture hardware, initially targeting enterprise applications.
- Market shareAbout 61% in L4 autonomous mobility LiDAR; about 33% in global ADAS LiDARUsed in the report to support Hesai's industry leader positioning.
- Revenue forecast2026E CNY 4,176m; 2027E CNY 5,610m; 2028E CNY 7,084mBased on Deutsche Bank estimates and company data.
- Net profit forecast2026E CNY 505m; 2027E CNY 890m; 2028E CNY 1,373mThe report uses reported net profit / DB net profit.
- Valuation multiples2026E P/E 54.5x; 2027E P/E 30.9x; 2028E P/E 20.0xBased on Deutsche Bank forecasts.
Impact & implications
If Picasso, ETX, ATX, FTX, and KOSMO progress as planned, Hesai's narrative will expand from that of a single automotive LiDAR supplier to a platform company for advanced autonomous driving and physical AI hardware. In the short term, ATX and FTX mass production should help increase delivery scale; in the medium term, ETX and KOSMO may raise technological barriers and per-unit value; in the long term, robotic joint actuator modules suggest the company is attempting to enter the robotics hardware chain of "perception + execution."
Risks
- Aggressive price cuts by LiDAR peers or the launch of competing new products could reduce Hesai's market share.
- Slower-than-expected business development by downstream L4 autonomous vehicle operators could reduce demand for autonomous-driving LiDAR.
- Mass production, customer ramp-up, or commercialization of new products such as ETX, KOSMO, and robotic joint actuators may fall short of expectations.
- Under high-growth expectations, valuation is sensitive to assumptions on revenue, margins, and industry penetration.
What to watch
- Whether ATX can deliver on guidance of more than 2 million units in 2026.
- ETX mass-production progress in 2H26, and its design-win implementation in flagship models during 2027 to 2028.
- Orders, gross margin, and realized ASP of KOSMO in enterprise scenarios such as film production, interactive gaming, and livestreaming.
- Additional design wins for FTX blind-spot LiDAR beyond the Li Auto L9 and Changan L3 platforms.
- Whether China's L2+/L3 advanced autonomous-driving penetration rises from 12% in 2024 to 65% by 2030 as projected in the report.