NVIDIA reference design validation enhances optionality for Hesai's humanoid robot actuator revenue

Overview

This report focuses on the new optionality for Hesai Group (HSAI.O) within the humanoid robot value chain. The key event is NVIDIA's designation of Sharpa's Wave hand as the official dexterous hand standard for the Isaac GROOT reference humanoid robot at GTC. Since Hesai is the contract manufacturer for Sharpa's precision actuators and assembly, Morgan Stanley believes this validation could convert the existing supply relationship into more favorable platform exposure.

Core views

The core view of the report is that NVIDIA's selection of the Sharpa reference design strengthens the credibility of the Sharpa solution in the dexterous hand market and indirectly improves the revenue elasticity of Hesai's actuator business. This logic is based on three points: first, Sharpa gained NVIDIA's initial selection in the highly competitive dexterous hand market; second, Hesai has locked in revenue and cost-plus margins for proprietary actuator modules through its supply framework; third, if commercial humanoid robots based on NVIDIA's technology stack scale up, Hesai's actuator revenue could shift from one-off project revenue to a recurring revenue stream tied to whole-unit shipments.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of event-driven analysis and value-chain mapping: it first assesses the endorsement significance of NVIDIA's reference design for Sharpa, then traces the supply framework between Sharpa and Hesai, and finally incorporates potential humanoid robot shipments, actuator supply, cost-plus gross margins, and existing LiDAR core business risks into valuation and scenario analysis.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsDCF discounted cash flow valuation

  WACC and terminal growth assumptions

  The base case uses DCF valuation, with key assumptions including an 11.2% WACC and a 3% terminal growth rate; the report also lists risks such as LiDAR adoption, ASP, technology substitution, and changes in standards.

• Data sourceMorgan Stanley ModelWare

  Model metric methodology

  The report states that unless otherwise indicated, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Hesai Group (HSAI.O)

  The company covered by the report and the contract manufacturer for Sharpa's precision actuators and assembly.

  Strengths

  Has a proprietary actuator module supply relationship, with cost-plus pricing and about 30-35% GpM providing margin visibility; if NVIDIA's technology stack commercializes at scale, actuator revenue could become recurring.

  Weaknesses

  The humanoid robot-related revenue target is still smaller than the core business scale and depends on actual shipments within the Sharpa and NVIDIA ecosystem.

  Comparison

  Compared with the traditional LiDAR business, this opportunity is more of incremental optionality after platform validation; compared with other dexterous hand competitors, Sharpa's initial selection by NVIDIA provides stronger endorsement.

  Risks

  Slower LiDAR adoption, ASP declines, technology substitution, changes in standards, and Sharpa reference design commercialization below expectations.

• Sharpa Wave hand

  Selected by NVIDIA as the official dexterous hand standard for the Isaac GROOT reference humanoid robot and has an actuator supply relationship with Hesai.

  Strengths

  Provides an integrated intelligent system including precision mechanical architecture, perceptual intelligence, and the CraftNet end-to-end Vision-Tactile-Language-Action AI model.

  Weaknesses

  The dexterous hand market is crowded, and long-term share and ecosystem lock-in still require commercial validation.

  Comparison

  The report emphasizes that NVIDIA's initial selection of Sharpa gives it differentiated reference design status in a crowded market.

  Risks

  If the NVIDIA ecosystem adopts other solutions or Wave hand shipments fall short of expectations, related revenue upside for Hesai could be delayed or weakened.

• NVIDIA Isaac GROOT Reference Humanoid Robot

  As a reference humanoid robot platform, it provides a validation scenario for the Sharpa Wave hand and Hesai's actuator supply chain.

  Strengths

  Endorsement from the NVIDIA ecosystem could increase the likelihood that downstream robot makers adopt the reference design.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not provide the scale or timing of the platform's commercial shipments.

  Comparison

  Compared with a single-customer project, if the reference platform is widely adopted, it could expand supply-chain revenue into ecosystem-type revenue.

  Risks

  A reference design may not directly translate into large-scale commercial shipments, and revenue transmission still depends on Sharpa orders and adoption by robot OEMs.

Key data

• Report date2026-06-02 08:02 GMTTimestamp on the cover page excerpt.
• Humanoid robot-related revenue targetRmb100mn（约US$14.8mn）Hesai Strategic Growth Initiatives 2026 annual target; the report believes there is upside over the next 12-18 months.
• Actuator supply margin40-50% cost-plus；约30-35% GpMTerms of the supply framework under which Hesai provides proprietary actuator modules to Sharpa.
• Valuation assumptions11.2% WACC；3% terminal growthBase-case DCF valuation assumptions.
• Latest target price history record3/26/26: 30From the target price history excerpt; current share price not provided.
• Rating history7/28/25: O/IO/I corresponds to Overweight and In-line industry view.
• Industry coverageChina Autos & Shared MobilityIndustry coverage scope disclosed in the report.

Impact & implications

If NVIDIA's reference humanoid robot platform drives shipments of the Sharpa Wave hand, Hesai's actuator supply business could gain a more certain source of orders and form a robotics actuator revenue curve alongside its existing LiDAR core business. In terms of investment implications, the report views this event as a catalyst for Hesai's medium-term growth optionality, but that optionality still depends on the pace of commercialization of the Sharpa solution within the NVIDIA ecosystem, the shipment ramp of complete robots, and Hesai's continued share in the supply relationship.

Risks

• Traditional OEM adoption of LiDAR may be slower than expected, or pricing pressure from automakers may cause LiDAR ASP to decline faster than expected.
• Emerging technologies may replace current LiDAR solutions.
• LiDAR technical standards may diverge from Hesai's current specifications.
• Upside in humanoid robot-related revenue depends on the actual commercialization and shipments of the Sharpa Wave hand within the NVIDIA ecosystem.
• Morgan Stanley discloses that it has or may seek investment banking and other service relationships with covered companies including Hesai Group, and investors should treat this report as only one factor in decision-making.

What to watch

• Follow-on shipments and commercialization pace of the Sharpa Wave hand on the NVIDIA Isaac GROOT reference humanoid robot.
• Whether Hesai's supply of actuator modules to Sharpa becomes a recurring revenue stream.
• Whether the Rmb100mn humanoid robot-related revenue target in Strategic Growth Initiatives 2026 is revised upward or exceeded.
• The pace of LiDAR adoption by traditional OEMs, changes in LiDAR ASP, and changes in Hesai's global market share.
• Whether LiDAR technical standards continue to support Hesai's current product specifications.
• Whether subsequent research updates the rating, target price, current share price, and expected upside.