Jackson Hole Could Amplify FX Volatility; Near-Term Policy Signals Hinge on the Keynote and Sideline Interviews

Overview

The report provides an event roadmap for the 2026 Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Symposium, focusing on which sessions could affect markets, when public information will become available, and the distinction between long-term policy discussions and short-term policy signals. Goldman Sachs believes the keynote address is the formal event most likely to generate FX volatility, but sideline television interviews may be more valuable for assessing near-term policy.

Core views

The Jackson Hole symposium is one of the most closely watched global central banking events of the year. Because central banks typically communicate less publicly in August, the conference is an important window into policy themes for the remainder of the year before autumn interest-rate decisions resume. The report notes that Jackson Hole, particularly the Fed Chair's keynote address, can generate significant FX volatility. However, this assessment is based primarily on historical convention, and the report also cautions that the arrangements and market reactions may differ each year. The full schedule will be released at 20:00 New York time on Thursday, August 27. The conference is held in Wyoming, and the official schedule is stated in Mountain Time, which is 2 hours behind the US East Coast and 7 hours behind London. The preliminary schedule released on Thursday usually lists only the paper or discussion topics and speaker names, while the full papers and speeches are generally released when the corresponding sessions begin. The main recurring events include the Friday morning keynote address, the Friday afternoon luncheon speech, and the concluding panel discussion on Saturday. Chair Warsh will deliver his first Jackson Hole speech since becoming Fed Chair at 10:00 US Eastern Time on Friday, August 28, addressing the economic outlook, with a webcast available. The schedule may label it as “Opening Remarks,” but it is effectively the conference keynote; the Federal Reserve calendar refers to it as a “Keynote Address.” Based on data since 2010, excluding 2013 when Bernanke did not attend and 2015 when Yellen did not attend, Goldman Sachs finds that the Fed Chair's speech is usually the day's most market-moving event, but it does not consistently drive the US dollar in any one direction. A Chair's first Jackson Hole speech also does not necessarily generate greater FX volatility. The report further finds that Jackson Hole speeches during Powell's tenure generated more FX volatility than those under Yellen or Bernanke. Goldman Sachs links this difference to communication styles: during Powell's tenure, the focal point of FX volatility shifted from the FOMC statement to the press conference, and Jackson Hole speeches also elicited larger exchange-rate reactions. The content of Warsh's speech remains uncertain. At the July FOMC press conference, he said he had not yet decided whether the speech would focus on the macroeconomic “big picture” or, more traditionally, preview policy actions from September through December, but that he hoped to frame the important issues at Jackson Hole. This means the keynote could address current policy or lean more toward a broader framework discussion. The keynote is the only formal event to be livestreamed, and no Q&A is scheduled afterward. Other speeches will not be livestreamed, but each presentation is typically followed by a Q&A that the media may cover, while private exchanges among attendees are not recorded publicly. Sideline television interviews are another important information channel emphasized in the report. Television coverage is expected to begin on Wednesday as attendees arrive and continue through Friday. On Friday, around 5 Fed officials typically appear across different media outlets, and some officials may give more than one interview. Federal Reserve governors typically wait until after the Chair's speech before speaking, while the host, the Kansas City Fed President, may be interviewed on Wednesday before the conference begins. Formal speeches tend to be more academic, whereas sideline interviews can sometimes be the more relevant source of near-term policy news that day. Since the report says Warsh is reluctant to provide forward guidance, these interviews may receive even more attention this year. Even if they are not listed on the official schedule, participating policymakers may still speak with the media. Among the confirmed attendees, ECB Governing Council member Schnabel will participate in a panel discussion at 11:55 US Eastern Time on Friday. Central Bank of Chile Governor Rosanna Costa will also participate and may attend the concluding panel discussion on Saturday. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman will attend but will not speak publicly because the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement is scheduled for September 2. The Saturday panel typically includes representatives from G10 central banks, emerging-market central banks, and international organizations such as the IMF or BIS. Historically, Saturday remarks have adhered more closely to previously stated public views and the conference theme, perhaps because policymakers recognize that markets are closed, but discussants generally still release prepared remarks or accompanying slides. This year's theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” It will determine the main direction of the papers and policy discussions but will impose fewer constraints on sideline interviews. Potential topics may resemble those covered at the New York Fed's recent 2026 innovation conference, including the impact of artificial intelligence and digital assets on financial markets. Goldman Sachs distinguishes between two types of policy implications: academic conference content may influence the long-term policy direction, while sideline interviews are more likely to address immediate policy questions. At the same time, the report cautions that Jackson Hole is only one of several similar events held throughout the year and is not inherently more special for long-term policy discussions. The report also lists 14 cross-asset trade recommendations: 1) Remain short SGD/MYR, initiated at 3.13 on January 24, 2026, with a target of 2.90, a stop at 3.30, and currently at 3.18; 2) Equal-weight long TRY, NGN, and KZT versus USD, initiated at 0% on February 18, 2026, with a total return target of 7.5%, a revised stop at 1.5%, and currently at 7.4%; 3) Long the 3-year SOFR swap spread, initiated at -22.6bp on April 17, 2026, with a revised carry-inclusive target of -14bp, a revised stop at -19bp, and currently at -17.9bp; 4) Remain short USD/EGP, initiated at 0% on April 24, 2026, with a revised total return target of 12%, a revised stop at 5%, and currently at 8.1%; 5) Hold a 1-year forward 2s10s GBP OIS curve steepener, initiated at 0.38 on May 29, 2026, with a target of 0.55, a stop at 0.25, and currently at 0.34; 6) Remain long 30-year Indian bonds, initiated at 7.34% on June 27, 2026, with a target of 6.90%, a stop at 7.65%, and currently at 7.47%; 7) Hold a 2s10s NZD curve steepener, initiated at 72bp on July 3, 2026, with a revised target of 95bp, a revised stop at 80bp, and currently at 81bp. The remaining recommendations are: 8) Hold a 2s10s CAD curve steepener, initiated at 53bp on July 10, 2026, with a target of 80bp, a revised stop at 58bp, and currently at 62bp; 9) Short AUD/NZD through a 6-month 1.1650-strike put option expiring January 14, 2027, initiated at 1.2000 on July 14, 2026, and currently at 1.1970; 10) Long NIFTY Banks and short NIFTY Pharma, initiated at 100 in local-currency terms on July 15, 2026, with a target of 115, a stop at 90, and currently at 98; 11) Hold a 2s5s SOFR steepener hedged against a European OIS flattener, initiated at -7bp on July 31, 2026, with a target of 10bp, a revised stop at -7bp, and currently at -3bp; 12) Remain short PLN/HUF, initiated at 84.12 on August 5, 2026, with a target of 80.5, a stop at 87, and currently at 84.44; 13) Receive the fixed rate on a 10-year AUD swap, recorded in the report as initiated at 5.10 on August 14, 2016, with a target of 4.80, a stop at 5.25, and currently at 5.18; 14) Buy a 6m1y A/A-40/A-80 receiver fly, recorded in the report as initiated at 9bp running on August 14, 2016, with a target of 20bp, a stop at 4bp, and currently at 8bp.

Analysis framework

The report first reconstructs the schedule-release process, formal events, and public-information procedures based on prior years' arrangements. It then uses Jackson Hole event data since 2010 to compare the impact of Fed Chair speeches on the FX market, including comparisons across different Chairs' tenures. The report subsequently combines confirmed attendee, livestream, and interview arrangements to distinguish the effects of formal academic content on long-term policy from the value of sideline interviews for near-term policy assessment. It concludes with existing cross-asset trade recommendations and their entry, target, stop, and current levels.

Methodology notes

• Event Strategy and Behavioral FinanceEvent-driven analysis

  Historical Event Comparison of Jackson Hole Speeches

  The report uses FX performance during the conference since 2010 to compare the market impact of Fed Chair keynote addresses, excluding 2013 when the Chair did not attend and 2015 when the Chair did not attend, in order to assess whether the event consistently generates volatility and directional reactions in the US dollar.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• SGD/MYR

  The report recommends remaining short; initiated at 3.13, with a target of 2.90 and currently at 3.18.

  Risks

  Stop at 3.30.

• Equal-weight basket of TRY, NGN, and KZT versus USD

  The report recommends remaining long; initiated at 0%, with a total return target of 7.5% and currently at 7.4%.

  Risks

  Revised stop at 1.5%.

• 3-year SOFR swap spread

  The report recommends going long; initiated at -22.6bp, with a revised carry-inclusive target of -14bp and currently at -17.9bp.

  Risks

  Revised stop at -19bp.

• USD/EGP

  The report recommends remaining short; initiated at 0%, with a revised total return target of 12% and currently at 8.1%.

  Risks

  Revised stop at 5%.

• 1-year forward 2s10s GBP OIS steepener

  The report maintains the curve steepener; initiated at 0.38, with a target of 0.55 and currently at 0.34.

  Risks

  Stop at 0.25.

• 30-year Indian bonds

  The report recommends remaining long; initiated at a yield of 7.34%, with a target of 6.90% and currently at 7.47%.

  Risks

  Stop at 7.65%.

• 2s10s NZD steepener

  The report maintains the curve steepener; initiated at 72bp, with a revised target of 95bp and currently at 81bp.

  Risks

  Revised stop at 80bp.

• 2s10s CAD steepener

  The report maintains the curve steepener; initiated at 53bp, with a target of 80bp and currently at 62bp.

  Risks

  Revised stop at 58bp.

• AUD/NZD 6-month 1.1650-strike put option

  The report shorts AUD/NZD through a put option expiring January 14, 2027; initiated at 1.2000 and currently at 1.1970.

• Long NIFTY Banks/Short NIFTY Pharma

  The report recommends going long the banking index and short the pharmaceutical index; initiated at 100, with a target of 115 and currently at 98.

  Comparison

  A pairs trade of NIFTY Banks relative to NIFTY Pharma.

  Risks

  Stop at 90.

• 2s5s SOFR steepener/European OIS flattener

  The report holds the cross-market curve trade; initiated at -7bp, with a target of 10bp and currently at -3bp.

  Comparison

  SOFR curve steepening relative to European OIS curve flattening.

  Risks

  Revised stop at -7bp.

• PLN/HUF

  The report recommends remaining short; initiated at 84.12, with a target of 80.5 and currently at 84.44.

  Risks

  Stop at 87.

• 10-year AUD swap

  The report recommends receiving the fixed rate; initiated at 5.10, with a target of 4.80 and currently at 5.18.

  Risks

  Stop at 5.25.

• 6m1y A/A-40/A-80 receiver fly

  The report recommends buying the receiver fly; initiated at 9bp running, with a target of 20bp and currently at 8bp.

  Risks

  Stop at 4bp.

Key data

• Full Schedule Release TimeAugust 27 at 20:00 New York timeReleased on Thursday; the schedule uses Mountain Time
• Mountain Time Difference2 hours behind the US East Coast and 7 hours behind LondonUsed to convert the official conference schedule
• Warsh Keynote AddressAugust 28 at 10:00 US Eastern TimeHis first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair, with a webcast available
• Schnabel Panel DiscussionAugust 28 at 11:55 US Eastern TimeECB Governing Council member participating
• RBNZ Monetary Policy StatementSeptember 2Because of the proximity of the date, Anna Breman will attend but will not speak publicly
• Starting Point of Historical FX Analysis2010Excludes 2013 when Bernanke did not attend and 2015 when Yellen did not attend
• Number of Fed Officials Interviewed on FridayUsually around 5Some officials may appear multiple times across different media outlets
• Conference ThemeFinancial Innovation: Implications for Payments and PolicyDetermines the main direction of the papers and formal policy discussions

Impact & implications

The report believes the formal keynote address is most likely to generate FX volatility that day, but historical evidence is insufficient to support a directional forecast for the US dollar. For the near-term policy path, sideline interviews from Wednesday through Friday may be more direct than the academically oriented formal papers. For the long-term policy framework, discussions related to financial innovation, payments, artificial intelligence, and digital assets warrant closer attention.

Risks

• The report explicitly cautions that the conference roadmap is based on historical convention, while the actual schedule, communication methods, and market reactions may differ each year.

What to watch

• Watch the full schedule, speaker list, and paper topics released at 20:00 New York time on August 27.
• Watch whether Warsh's keynote address at 10:00 US Eastern Time on August 28 focuses on the long-term framework or signals policy actions from September through December.
• Watch sideline television interviews from Wednesday through Friday after the keynote address for clues about the near-term policy direction.
• Watch Schnabel's discussion at 11:55 on Friday and the Saturday concluding panel discussion in which Rosanna Costa may participate.
• Watch discussions of artificial intelligence, digital assets, payment systems, and monetary policy.
• Watch for the immediate release of speeches, full papers, and prepared remarks or slides accompanying the Saturday panel discussion.