Uber Go-Get 2026 Highlights AI Search, Travel Booking, and Super-App Ambitions

Overview

This report evaluates the investment implications around Uber Go-Get 2026 product launch. Bernstein believes Uber's showcased suite of AI, travel, and local commerce functions benefits long-term Gross Bookings growth. Key changes include Universal Search, AI Cart Assistant, voice interaction, hotel booking access, Uber One travel benefit globalization, and 'Shop for Me' extending Courier from point-to-point delivery to local shopping. Report also notes current investors' main debate on UBER stock remains mid-to-long term risks brought by autonomous driving; product innovation may not be the dominant factor for stock price in the short term.

Core views

Core views of the report: First, AI can integrate Uber's multi-category services into a lower-friction intent-based consumption entry point, improving conversion and cross-selling; Second, travel booking is a natural direction for Uber to expand use cases and enhance Uber One stickiness, but whether consumers accept hotel bookings made months in advance needs verification; Third, 10% cashback and partial 20% hotel discounts may improve member attractiveness, but unit economics, EXPE revenue share ratio, and how hotels bear discounts remain unclear; Fourth, 'Shop for Me' can release local commerce demand without full merchant integration and may become an upsell channel for merchant acquisition, but merchant reaction remains uncertain.

Analysis framework

The report focuses on event commentary and product strategy analysis, mapping Go-Get 2026 new features to Uber's Gross Bookings, member stickiness, cross-platform conversion, TAM expansion, and valuation assumptions. Financial section cites Bloomberg, Bernstein forecasts and analysis, combining EPS, revenue, EBITDA, FCF/Share, valuation multiples and DCF parameters to evaluate target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation MethodNTM P/FCF and DCF Mix Valuation

  Uber target price uses 50/50 mix: 18x NTM P/FCF multiple and DCF.

  DCF uses 12% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate; target price 110 USD based on fully diluted basis; SBC treated as cash expense, considering Uber's equity investments.

• Rating SystemBernstein Stock Rating Framework

  Outperform represents outperforming relative market index by more than 15 percentage points over the next 12 months.

  Bernstein uses relative S&P 500 performance over the next 12 months as benchmark for ratings on US and Canada listed stocks.

• Product Strategy AnalysisTAM Expansion and Cross-Selling Framework

  AI search, travel booking, and local commerce expansion are viewed as pathways to expand use cases, improve conversion, and enhance member stickiness.

  Report focuses on assessing whether new features can increase Gross Bookings, Uber One value, cross-category usage frequency, and merchant acquisition potential.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• UBER (Uber Technologies Inc)

  Primary research target; Bernstein rating is Outperform.

  Strengths

  Platform covers Mobility, Delivery, Courier, and local commerce; AI search and voice interaction can reduce user friction; Travel booking and Uber One benefits expected to improve member stickiness; Hotel booking and 'Shop for Me' can expand TAM and use cases.

  Weaknesses

  Travel booking belongs to advance planning scenario, different from Uber's typical instant/on-demand usage habit; 10% cashback and discounts may drag unit economics; Freight profitability expansion still listed as risk.

  Comparison

  Relative to EXPE, UBER is traffic and local mobility entry; EXPE provides accommodation supply and travel transaction infrastructure.

  Risks

  Autonomous driving robo-taxi may form more economical alternative solution; Mobility and Delivery competitive; Regulation, driver classification, delivery commission cap, driver supply, and insurance costs could all affect margins.

• EXPE (Expedia Group Inc)

  Uber travel booking partner; Bernstein rating is Market-Perform.

  Strengths

  Possesses global 700K+ accommodation supply, can support Uber providing hotel booking within app and future extension to Vrbo rentals.

  Weaknesses

  Report maintains Market-Perform on EXPE, and its valuation includes AI disruption risk scenario DCF.

  Comparison

  EXPE as travel supply and booking capability provider benefits from Uber referral; UBER leverages EXPE supply to expand travel scenarios and Uber One value.

  Risks

  Travel demand, US market share, cost saving realization, and hotel brand direct sales leading to take rate decline all affect EXPE performance.

Key data

• UBER RatingOutperformBernstein maintains UBER Outperform view.
• UBER Target Price110.00 USDTarget price based on 50/50 18x NTM P/FCF and DCF mix valuation.
• UBER Close Price74.11 USDClose date is April 28, 2026.
• Implied Upside48%Calculated based on 74.11 USD close price and 110.00 USD target price.
• 2026E Adjusted EPS3.25 USDBernstein estimate, 2025A is 2.45 USD, 2027E is 4.21 USD.
• 2026E Revenue57,966 million USD2025A is 52,017 million USD, 2027E is 67,628 million USD, corresponding to 14.0% CAGR.
• 2026E EBITDA8,842 million USD2025A is 6,284 million USD, 2027E is 11,299 million USD.
• 2026E FCF/Share5.17 USD2025A is 4.61 USD, 2027E is 6.26 USD, corresponding to 16.6% CAGR.
• Airport Gross Bookings Contribution>15%Report states airport is a major source of Uber travel scenarios.
• Trips Outside Residence City1.5B tripsLast year consumers completed approx. 1.5B trips outside residence city, accounting for about 14% of Mobility trips.
• Expedia Accommodation Supply700K+ propertiesEXPE supports Uber hotel booking partnership global accommodation supply.

Impact & implications

If AI search and travel booking land smoothly, Uber may further expand from instant mobility and food delivery platform to broader local and travel consumption entry point, enhancing Gross Bookings growth, member engagement, and cross-category cross-selling. For investment, this helps support long-term growth narrative and 110 USD target price; but report also emphasizes short-term market focus may still center on AV's potential threat to Uber's business model.

Risks

• Autonomous driving robo-taxi may become a more economical alternative and pose long-term survival threat to Uber.
• If ride-hailing and food delivery penetration nears saturation, or Mobility and Delivery growth slows under macro headwinds, Gross Bookings may fall below forecast.
• EBITDA improvement is core to investment logic, but investor expectations are high; growth slowdown, increased competition, driver supply shortage, and rising insurance costs could compress margins.
• Driver supply gap if turning from cyclical issue to structural problem could damage ride-hailing model growth and profitability.
• Driver classification, food delivery commission caps, and other regulatory changes could bring policy, litigation, and negative news risks.
• Mobility and Delivery highly competitive; price wars and aggressive subsidies could weaken Uber competitiveness and lead to low profitability or market exit.
• Consumer acceptance of travel features uncertain because hotels are typically booked months in advance, while Uber usage habits lean more towards instant/on-demand.
• Unit economics of Uber One travel cashback and discounts still unclear; EXPE share ratio and whether hotels bear discounts still to be observed.
• 'Shop for Me' may encounter merchant resistance, similar to merchant backlash historically seen in food delivery industry.

What to watch

• Next week UBER 1Q26 earnings call explanation on travel partnership, cashback subsidy, revenue share, and discount bearing method.
• Whether users willing to conduct pre-planned travel bookings such as hotels in Uber, especially demand performance during World Cup period.
• Whether Universal Search, AI Cart Assistant, and voice interaction bring higher conversion rate, average order value, and cross-category usage.
• Uber One member engagement, global points or cashback redemption rate, and whether travel benefits enhance retention.
• Market expansion pace of hotel booking, Vrbo rental, and Uber rides integration within Expedia app.
• Whether 'Shop for Me' can create incremental demand without full merchant onboarding, and convert into merchant acquisition channel.
• Autonomous driving commercialization progress and its impact on UBER valuation and investor sentiment.