Figma's AI product cycle may boost near-term sentiment, but monetization and gross margin remain key validation points

Overview

This report summarizes Goldman Sachs' key observations after attending Figma's investor meeting and annual user conference Config, held in San Francisco from June 24 to June 25. The report's core view is that Figma's new AI-related products may open a new product cycle and support near-term stock performance; however, for the stock to continue rising, the company still needs to prove that AI will not compress designer seats, will not be displaced by AI-native tools, and can achieve effective monetization while controlling gross margin pressure.

Core views

The report maintains a Neutral rating on Figma. Positive factors include: Figma's multiplayer collaboration architecture remains a competitive advantage, Figma Make has improved meaningfully since launch, and new products such as Code Layers and Motion expand into adjacent user groups across design and engineering, animation, and marketing, with customer feedback indicating stable to modestly growing seat counts. Constraining factors include: rising usage of AI-native tools in simple prototyping, greater enterprise sensitivity to AI token and credit costs, the lack of charges for beta-stage new products delaying revenue recognition, and inference costs that may continue to pressure gross margin.

Analysis framework

The report combines meeting notes, management commentary, customer interviews, product feature assessment, competitive landscape analysis, and valuation framework. The analysis focuses on the impact of new products on Full Seat penetration and expansion among non-designers, progress in AI credit monetization, Figma's positioning as a collaborative canvas amid fragmented AI workflows, its competitive relationship with Adobe and AI-native tools, and the trade-off between revenue growth and gross margin.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodsEV/sales target multiple

  12-month target price based on 10x EV/sales

  Goldman Sachs maintains its $30 target price, based on an unchanged 10x EV/sales multiple, to reflect Figma's growth quality, AI product cycle opportunity, and the persistent gross margin and competitive risks.

• Product and customer feedbackMeeting notes and customer interviews

  Config conference and customer conversations

  The report combines Config new product launches, management communication, and customer feedback to assess new product adoption, seat changes, friction in AI credit usage, and the extent to which workflows return to Figma.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs Factor Profile compares growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite percentiles versus the market and industry peers to provide investment context for the stock.

• M&A analysisM&A Rank

  M&A Rank 3

  The report discloses Figma's M&A Rank as 3, indicating a lower probability of becoming an acquisition target, which is typically not included as part of the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Figma Inc. (FIG)

  Core covered name

  Strengths

  Its multiplayer collaboration architecture, design system integration, unified canvas, and positioning as the system of record for product development form competitive advantages; new products may expand Full Seat adoption and adjacent user groups.

  Weaknesses

  Direct AI monetization is still early, and beta new products do not yet consume AI credits; gross margin is affected by inference costs and an adoption-first strategy.

  Comparison

  Relative to AI-native prototyping tools, Figma is stronger in iteration, design system alignment, collaboration, and productionization; relative to Adobe, Figma is moving into higher-value creative workflows through features such as Motion.

  Risks

  AI-native tools could erode Figma if they add collaboration and design context; enterprise scrutiny of AI costs could limit credit consumption; gross margin pressure may persist.

• Adobe Inc.

  Important competitive benchmark

  Strengths

  It has long-standing advantages and a broad product portfolio across creative software and high-value workflows such as animation, images, and video.

  Weaknesses

  Investors remain highly skeptical about the modernization of Adobe's product stack and its ability to accelerate its AI roadmap.

  Comparison

  Figma Motion shows increasing competitive overlap between Figma and Adobe in high-value creative workflows; Adobe's acquisition of Topaz Labs is viewed as a strategic positive for strengthening AI capabilities and technical talent.

  Risks

  If Adobe cannot deliver a more meaningful product transformation in 2026 and beyond, its competitiveness may remain under pressure.

• AI-native tools such as Lovable

  Competitors in early-stage prototyping

  Strengths

  They are well suited for non-designers to quickly generate simple, one-off prototypes, lowering the barrier to product creation.

  Weaknesses

  Customer feedback suggests they still fall short in design system integration, end-to-end product development, and team collaboration.

  Comparison

  These tools may capture usage time in the front-end idea generation stage, but many workflows ultimately return to Figma for iteration, alignment, and delivery.

  Risks

  If AI-native tools rapidly add collaboration, design context, and product depth, they may weaken Figma's position as the system of record.

Key data

• RatingNEUTRALThe rating has been Neutral since 2025-08-25.
• 12-month target price$30Based on 10x EV/sales, unchanged from the prior target.
• Disclosed price$19.08The Figma Inc. price listed in the company-specific disclosures.
• Market capitalization$11.7bnDisclosed in the report's Key Data.
• Enterprise value$11.2bnDisclosed in the report's Key Data.
• 3-month average daily trading volume$390.7mnDisclosed in the report's Key Data.
• 2026E revenue$1,428.0mnGoldman Sachs forecast.
• 2026E EBITDA$144.0mnGoldman Sachs forecast.
• 2026E EPS$0.27Goldman Sachs forecast.
• 2026E EV/sales6.8xDisclosed in the valuation table.
• 2026E gross margin82.7%Below 88.2% in 2025, reflecting pressure from AI costs and product investment.
• 2026E FCF yield2.0%Disclosed in the valuation table.

Impact & implications

For investors, Figma's near-term catalysts come from new AI products, Make monetization, and higher Full Seat penetration; the medium-term key is whether it can turn fragmentation in AI workflows into a platform collaboration advantage and achieve AI revenue growth without materially damaging gross margin. If new products can drive conversion among non-designers while preserving design system and collaboration advantages, Figma may alleviate the bear argument that AI-native tools will displace it; if enterprise AI spending tightens, competitors close the gap in collaboration and design context capabilities, or inference costs remain elevated, upside to valuation may be limited.

Risks

• New pricing and packaging may create customer pressure, or price competition may intensify.
• New products may show insufficient product-market fit, similar to some historical launches that did not fully deliver.
• Rising AI investment and inference costs may pressure gross margin, while revenue contribution may be insufficient to offset those costs.
• AI-native tools may quickly catch up in collaboration, design system context, or product depth.
• Greater enterprise scrutiny of AI token and credit costs may limit growth in AI consumption revenue.
• Evidence for scaled adoption and paid conversion among non-designers remains limited.

What to watch

• Adoption and retention of Figma Make, Code Layers, Motion, and Design Agent.
• Full Seat penetration, conversion of non-designer users, and net seat expansion.
• AI credit consumption, enterprise demand for AI cost visibility, and customer response after March monetization.
• Gross margin trends, inference cost control, model switching, and the effectiveness of open-source model usage.
• Whether AI-native prototyping tools begin to develop stronger collaboration and design system integration capabilities.
• Adobe's execution progress in AI capabilities, product stack modernization, and post-Topaz Labs acquisition integration.