Memory prices continued to rise in June, but price-increase momentum is expected to slow in 3QCY26

Overview

This report is Bernstein’s monthly price tracker for the global memory industry. It compares Bernstein’s model with investor expectations based on June DRAM and NAND contract and spot price data published by TrendForce/DRAMeXchange. The core conclusion is that DRAM and NAND contract prices continued to rise in June, continuing to indicate substantial price increases in 2QCY26, but that the pace of price increases will slow significantly entering 3QCY26.

Core views

For DRAM, traditional DRAM contract price increases in 2QCY26 remain very strong, with June contract prices indicating an approximately 74% QoQ increase. Server demand, particularly AI-related demand, continues to absorb incremental supply allocated by suppliers. For NAND, wafer price increases have slowed and spot prices have declined, but strong price increases for Mobile NAND and SSD are sufficient to support an approximately 60% QoQ increase in overall blended NAND prices. The report also emphasizes that current shortages and LTAs can cushion price corrections, but consumer demand destruction will eventually occur. Price increases will narrow in 3QCY26 and may gradually peak and return to normal from 2HCY27 through CY28.

Analysis framework

The report uses TrendForce/DRAMeXchange contract and spot prices as its primary inputs and calculates changes in industry average prices by application scenario and product weighting. The DRAM sample covers Mobile, Server, PC, and Specialty DRAM, with additional consideration of HBM. The NAND sample is weighted across eMMC/UFS and NAND wafers, with additional discussion of SSD. Spot prices are viewed as leading indicators for contract prices, although the report notes that they have relatively high noise.

Methodology notes

• Industry price trackingTrendForce/DRAMeXchange Price Tracking

  Linked analysis of contract and spot prices

  Monthly contract prices are used to assess the direction of quarterly ASPs, while spot prices are used to observe supply-demand tightness and potential leading signals for contract prices.

• Weighted-average modelBernstein Memory ASP Weighting Model

  Estimating industry ASPs weighted by application scenario

  Average DRAM prices are weighted by demand contributions from Mobile, Server, PC, and Specialty DRAM, with adjustments for DDR5 and LPDDR5 penetration; NAND is weighted across eMMC/UFS and wafers, with additional consideration of SSD.

• Supply-demand cycle analysisLTA and Capacity Cycle Framework

  Long-term agreements, capacity release, and demand destruction jointly determine price sustainability

  LTAs may reduce the impact of price corrections, but declining consumer demand and the ramp-up of new capacity will cause prices to gradually normalize from 2HCY27 through CY28.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Samsung Electronics

  Global memory supplier covering DRAM, NAND, HBM, and other businesses

  Strengths

  Rated Outperform with a target price of KRW 440,000; benefits from server DRAM and the memory price upcycle, while its LTA price cap may be higher than Micron’s.

  Weaknesses

  Weakness in consumer electronics and smartphone demand could weigh on some DRAM and NAND shipments; price increases will slow entering 3QCY26.

  Comparison

  Compared with Micron, TrendForce believes Samsung’s LTA price cap may be higher; compared with SK hynix, Samsung is more aggressive in driving server DRAM prices in 2QCY26.

  Risks

  Demand destruction, price normalization, weaker-than-expected HBM/server demand, and intensifying NAND competition.

• SK hynix

  Core beneficiary of DRAM and HBM

  Strengths

  Rated Outperform with a target price of KRW 3,300,000; benefits from AI and server demand, with strong HBM-related momentum.

  Weaknesses

  Its initial Mobile DRAM price-increase request was lower than those of Samsung and Micron, suggesting potentially weaker price elasticity.

  Comparison

  It has advantages in the AI/HBM chain, but most server DRAM contract negotiations were completed in April, so subsequent price increases may be constrained by LTAs.

  Risks

  LTA price caps, capacity releases, changes in server demand, and a decline in consumer demand.

• Micron

  US memory supplier with exposure to both DRAM and NAND

  Strengths

  Rated Outperform with a target price of US$1,300.00; benefits from substantial increases in traditional DRAM and blended NAND prices.

  Weaknesses

  TrendForce says Micron prefers longer contract terms, and its LTA price cap may be close to the 2QCY26 level, potentially limiting subsequent upside.

  Comparison

  Compared with Samsung and SK hynix, Micron’s LTA cap may be lower, but priority supply to US CSP customers continues to support demand.

  Risks

  LTA caps, slower price increases in 3QCY26, insufficient NAND price momentum, and a cyclical peak.

• KIOXIA

  NAND supplier

  Strengths

  Can still benefit from price increases in Mobile NAND and SSDs during the NAND price upcycle.

  Weaknesses

  Rated Underperform with a target price of JPY 40,000; the report is more structurally cautious on NAND, with more pronounced Chinese competitive pressure.

  Comparison

  Compared with DRAM-focused suppliers, NAND suppliers face stronger competition and weaker wafer spot and contract price momentum.

  Risks

  Declining NAND wafer spot prices, cautious module-factory procurement, competition from YMTC and other Chinese players, and demand destruction.

• SanDisk

  NAND- and SSD-related stock

  Strengths

  Rated Outperform with a target price of US$3,000.00; the approximately 70% SSD price increase assumption supports earnings sensitivity.

  Weaknesses

  NAND wafer price growth is slowing, while structural competitive pressure across NAND remains.

  Comparison

  Compared with KIOXIA, the report is more positive on SanDisk, mainly benefiting from strong SSD prices and the backdrop of a higher target price.

  Risks

  Weaker-than-expected SSD demand, NAND price normalization, Chinese competition, and consumer demand destruction.

Key data

• Traditional DRAM 2QCY26 contract price increaseApproximately +74% QoQJune contract prices indicate a substantial increase in 2QCY26 versus 1QCY26, approximately 10 percentage points higher than the increase implied by May contract prices.
• PC DRAM spot prices+5.6% to +11.5% MoMSpot prices for DDR4 and DDR5 PC DRAM chips continued to recover in June.
• Server DRAM spot prices+6.1% to +26.4% MoMServer DDR5 was particularly strong, with spot prices still significantly above contract prices, reflecting continued market shortages.
• Expected server DRAM 3QCY26 price increase+13% to +18% QoQA significant slowdown from the sharp price increases in 2QCY26.
• Expected Mobile DRAM 2QCY26 price increaseNearly +80% QoQSamsung and Micron requested increases of more than 80%, while SK hynix’s initial request was more moderate.
• Specialty DRAM 2QCY26 price increase+105% to +108% QoQInsufficient traditional product supply, along with additional demand from AI networking switches, Server SSDs, and automotive applications.
• NAND wafer spot pricesApproximately -3% to -4% MoMNAND wafer spot prices continued to decline in June, and wafers account for only a small portion of the NAND market.
• NAND blended contract price increase in 2QCY26Approximately +60% QoQWafer and eMMC/UFS prices in the sample rose approximately 41.5% in aggregate; after adding SSD prices rising approximately 70%, the overall NAND increase is estimated at approximately 60%.
• Mobile NAND 2QCY26 price increaseApproximately +75% to +80% QoQDriven primarily by supply shortages, although smartphone OEM demand is more cautious.
• Expected NAND 3QCY26 price increaseMobile NAND approximately +5% to +10% QoQPrices may continue to rise, but price-increase attempts will face greater demand destruction from smartphone demand.

Impact & implications

For investors, near-term memory prices and earnings revisions remain supportive of major DRAM/NAND suppliers, particularly companies with bargaining power in servers, HBM, SSDs, and LTAs. However, valuation sustainability depends on the pace of price increases slowing after 3QCY26, consumer demand destruction, LTA price caps, and the pace of capacity releases after 2HCY27. The report is relatively more positive on DRAM and structurally more cautious on NAND due to increasing Chinese competition and weaker wafer price momentum.

Risks

• Consumer demand destruction may be delayed but will ultimately occur, particularly in PCs, smartphones, and other consumer applications.
• DRAM and NAND price increases are expected to slow materially in 3QCY26, potentially limiting the magnitude of earnings revisions and valuation multiples.
• LTA price caps may constrain subsequent ASP upside, and differences in supplier terms will affect earnings sensitivity.
• After more capacity comes online and LTAs take effect from 2HCY27 through CY28, memory prices may gradually peak and normalize.
• NAND faces stronger structural competition, particularly from Chinese suppliers.
• Spot prices are relatively noisy, and HBM and SSD are not fully included in the sample, so the weighted sample results may differ from companies’ actual reported ASPs.

What to watch

• Whether 3QCY26 DRAM contract price increases slow as TrendForce expects, to approximately 15%-20% for PC and 13%-18% for Server.
• The signing progress, price caps, and fulfillment volumes of LTAs with US CSPs and Chinese CSPs.
• Whether Server DDR5 spot prices remain significantly above contract prices, validating the strength of AI and server demand.
• Whether smartphone OEMs continue to reduce production and memory configurations, and the extent of demand destruction for Mobile DRAM/NAND.
• Whether NAND wafer procurement volumes continue to decline, and whether strong SSD pricing can offset weak wafer prices.
• The pace at which new capacity comes online after 2HCY27 and the speed at which memory prices normalize from elevated levels.