China's export growth slowed in March, while technology and autos remained key bright spots and the drag from US demand deepened

Overview

UBS's China Industrials team, based on about 6,000 six-digit HS Code product categories covering more than 90% of China's total exports in 2024, breaks down China's exports by end market and subsector. The report shows that China's exports grew 2.5% YoY in March 2026, slowing sharply from +22% in the first two months of 2026. The growth structure diverged clearly: technology, autos, and utilities performed strongly, while consumer goods, industrial products, and some basic materials faced pressure; by destination, exports to the US were a significant drag, growth to ASEAN and Africa cooled notably, while the EU maintained positive growth.

Core views

The core view is that China's overall export growth rate slowed materially in March, but structural bright spots remained concentrated in the technology chain, auto chain, and some utility-related products. Semiconductors, panels, batteries, passenger vehicles, and solar products made large contributions to incremental exports; meanwhile, the decline in exports to the US widened, reflecting pressure from external demand and export destination mix. Overall ASEAN growth slowed, but technology exports to ASEAN remained strong, showing continued resilience in supply chains and regional demand structure.

Analysis framework

The report uses HS Code product-level classification to break China's exports into nine major sectors and 112 subsectors, and compares YoY growth rates, contributions to incremental export value, and industry structure by export destination. It focuses on comparing export changes in March 2026 with those in the first two months of 2026 to identify slowing growth, sector divergence, and changes in regional destinations.

Methodology notes

• 出口监测UBS Evidence Lab China Export Monitor

  Break down China's exports by HS Code and destination

  UBS maps about 6,000 six-digit HS Code products into nine major sectors and 112 subsectors, covering more than 90% of China's total exports in 2024, to analyze YoY growth, incremental contribution, and structural changes at the sector and destination levels.

• 行业比较同比增速与增量出口价值贡献

  Compare the quality of sector growth and sources of support

  The report examines both sector YoY growth and contribution to total incremental export value, avoiding judging export-driving capacity solely by growth rates.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Technology products and the semiconductor industry chain

  Core drivers of export growth

  Strengths

  Technology exports grew 30% YoY in March, with semiconductors, panels, and memory semiconductors making prominent contributions to incremental growth; technology exports to ASEAN still accelerated to 47%.

  Weaknesses

  Growth may be affected by the global electronics cycle, trade restrictions, and a high base.

  Comparison

  Compared with consumer goods and industrial products, the technology chain performed more strongly in March.

  Risks

  Volatility in external demand, geopolitical trade restrictions, and a downturn in the semiconductor cycle.

• Autos and auto parts

  A structural bright spot in overseas expansion, but with divergent internal performance

  Strengths

  Auto exports grew 26% YoY, with batteries, passenger vehicles, and heavy trucks as the main drivers; auto exports to the EU grew 61% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  Export growth in auto parts and commercial vehicles shifted from positive in the first two months of 2026 to negative in March.

  Comparison

  Overall better than industrial products and consumer goods, but with large differences across subsectors.

  Risks

  Overseas trade barriers, price competition, and volatility in destination demand.

• Utility-related products

  Solar and optical fiber drove export growth

  Strengths

  Utility exports grew 21% YoY, with solar products up 84% YoY and optical fiber up 43% YoY.

  Weaknesses

  Growth slowed from 28% in the first two months of 2026.

  Comparison

  Weaker than technology but significantly stronger than consumer goods and industrial products.

  Risks

  Changes in overseas new energy policies, trade protectionism, and excess capacity.

• Consumer goods exports

  One of the main drags

  Strengths

  Some destinations or subsectors may still have pockets of demand.

  Weaknesses

  Exports to the US deteriorated significantly, with some categories such as furniture, home appliances, and consumer electronics declining sharply.

  Comparison

  Performance was significantly weaker than technology, autos, and utilities.

  Risks

  Weakening US demand, tariffs and trade policies, and sluggish end-consumption.

Key data

• Overall growth in China's exports+2.5% YoYMarch 2026; significantly slower than +22% in the first two months of 2026.
• Technology export growth+30% YoYThe highest growth among the nine major sectors in March, with semiconductors and PCBs supporting export growth to ASEAN.
• Auto export growth+26% YoYMainly driven by batteries, passenger vehicles, and heavy trucks, while auto parts and commercial vehicles turned from positive to negative.
• Utility export growth+21% YoYDriven by solar (+84%) and optical fiber (+43%).
• Industrial product export growth-7% YoYTurned negative overall, but railway equipment, drones, and shipbuilding still maintained strong growth.
• Export growth to the US-26% YoYThe decline widened further from -11% in the first two months of 2026, with all sectors posting negative exports to the US.
• Export growth to ASEAN+7% YoYSlowed significantly from +29% in the first two months of 2026, but technology product exports to ASEAN still grew +47%.
• Export growth to the EU+10% YoYMainly driven by autos (+61%), utilities (+30%), and healthcare (+30%).
• Export growth to Africa+3% YoYSlowed sharply from +50% in the first two months of 2026, mainly dragged down by consumer goods.
• Main sectors contributing to incremental growthsemiconductors 181%, panels 65%, batteries 56%, passenger vehicles 48%Refers to the share of contribution to YoY incremental export value in March.

Impact & implications

The implication for investment research is that Chinese industrial companies going global still have structural opportunities, but strong overall export growth cannot simply be extrapolated. The technology chain, auto chain, solar, and some advanced manufacturing areas still show relatively strong overseas demand or resilience from supply-chain relocation; in contrast, areas with higher exposure to the US, such as consumer goods, furniture, home appliances, and steel, face greater pressure. In terms of regional allocation, the EU and some emerging markets still provide support, but the slowdown in ASEAN and Africa points to risks from a high base or marginally weakening demand.

Risks

• A contraction in China's macro-level investment could suppress demand for industrial products and import/export volumes.
• If China's economy remains weak, demand for industrial products and export growth may slow.
• If policies such as tax incentives for high-tech companies are removed, corporate profitability may be affected.
• Intensifying domestic and international competition could lead to loss of market share.
• The widening decline in exports to the US signals risks from trade friction and weakening external demand.
• Some charts and tables are derived from visual extraction, and a few detailed figures may need to be verified against the original report.

What to watch

• Whether China's overall export growth can recover from March's low growth rate in subsequent months.
• Whether the decline in exports to the US will continue to widen, and changes in sectors with US exposure such as consumer goods, furniture, home appliances, and steel.
• Whether strong growth in technology exports to ASEAN is sustainable, especially for semiconductors and PCBs.
• The sustainability of auto exports in markets such as the EU and ASEAN, and whether auto parts and commercial vehicles can return to positive growth.
• Whether high-growth categories such as solar, optical fiber, and batteries will be affected by overseas policies or trade measures.
• Whether export support from destinations such as Russia, Korea, and the EU will continue.