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The semiconductor equipment industry in Japan is showing continued strength, with Ulvac's rating lowered to neutral

Institution
Goldman Sachs
Date
20260531
Authors
Shuhei Nakamura, Kaho Otake
Company
Lasertec, Ebara, Disco, Tokyo Electron, Ulvac, Advantest, Tokyo Seimitsu, SCREEN Holdings
Ticker
6920, 6361, 6146, 8035, 6728, 6857, 6951, 7729, 7735, 7741
Industry
Semiconductors, MLCC, Information Technology Services
Rating
MixedMedium confidenceDowngradeWe downgrade Ulvac to Neutral, from Buy.
AuthorsShuhei Nakamura, Kaho Otake
CoverageJapan
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesEquity Research(Division/Team)、Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd.(Subsidiary/Legal Entity)

AI summary card

The semiconductor equipment industry in Japan is showing continued strength, with Ulvac's rating lowered to neutral

Despite strong orders, Ulvac's profit margins are improving slowly, leading to a rating downgrade to neutral; other companies such as Lasertec, Ebara, etc., maintain a buy rating.

Buy | Target Price 87,000 yen (Disco) Buy | Target Price 7,100 yen (Ebara) Neutral | Target Price 9,400 yen (Ulvac)
Semiconductor EquipmentJapanese MarketRating AdjustmentOrder GrowthProfit Margin
  • The demand for semiconductors continues to grow, particularly in advanced logic and memory sectors
  • Ulvac's profit margins are improving slower than expected, mainly due to weak orders for high-profit power semiconductors and some electronic component applications
  • Maintaining a buy rating for Lasertec, Ebara, Disco, Tokyo Electron, etc., based on expected market growth and their technical advancements
  • Order growth is strong, but profitability improvements require time

Report interpretation

Overview

This research report analyzes the Japanese semiconductor equipment industry, pointing out that despite strong orders, Ulvac's profit margins are improving slowly, leading to a downgrade rating to neutral. Other companies such as Lasertec, Ebara, Disco, and Tokyo Electron maintain a buy rating.

Core views

The semiconductor market is experiencing a持续strong growth, particularly in advanced logic and memory sectors, driving demand for semiconductor production equipment. However, Ulvac's profit margin improvement is slower than expected, mainly due to weak orders for high-profit power semiconductors and some electronic component applications. Nevertheless, other companies such as Lasertec, Ebara, Disco, and Tokyo Electron are expected to continue achieving above-average growth and their profit margins are expected to significantly improve.

Analysis framework

The report assesses the performance prospects of companies by analyzing their order situations, changes in profit margins, and market conditions. For Ulvac, although orders are strong, due to insufficient orders for high-profit products, profit margin improvements are slow, leading to a downgrade rating. For other companies such as Lasertec, Ebara, Disco, and Tokyo Electron, based on their technological upgrades and market share growth potential, a buy rating is maintained.

Methodology notes

  • Company Fundamental and Financial Framework

    Company Profit Margin Analysis

    By comparing the actual profit margins of companies with expected profit margins, evaluating changes in profitability trends

  • Industry/Industry Analysis FrameworkSupply and Demand Framework

    Analysis of supply and demand in the semiconductor equipment industry

    By analyzing the supply and demand relationship in the semiconductor equipment industry, predicting future market growth trends and company performance

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

  • Lasertec (6920.T)
    Benefits from technology upgrades and market share growth
    Strengths
    ACTIS in晶圆厂 adoption increases
    Comparison
    Compared to other companies, Lasertec's technological leading advantage is obvious
    Risks
    Market demand fluctuations
  • Ebara (6361.T)
    Benefits from CMP process applications and market share growth
    Strengths
    扩展CMP process applications and increased market share
    Comparison
    Compared to other companies, Ebara's technological strength in CMP is stronger
    Risks
    Intensifying market competition
  • Disco (6146.T)
    Benefits from advanced packaging and other growth drivers
    Strengths
    Advanced packaging and other growth drivers
    Comparison
    Compared to other companies, Disco's product portfolio is more competitive
    Risks
    Extended production cycle
  • Tokyo Electron (8035.T)
    Benefits from product portfolio overgrowth and profit margin improvement measures
    Strengths
    Product portfolio overgrowth and profit margin improvement measures
    Comparison
    Compared to other companies, Tokyo Electron's product innovation capability is strong
    Risks
    Intensifying market competition
  • Ulvac (6728.T)
    Profit margin improvement slow
    Strengths
    Structural reforms and product portfolio转向semiconductor
    Weaknesses
    Insufficient orders for high-profit products
    Comparison
    Compared to other companies, Ulvac's profit margin improvement faces more challenges
    Risks
    Profit margin improvement does not meet expectations

Key data

  • Ulvac's total company sales350,000 million yenExpected sales for June 2026
  • Ulvac's gross margin34%Expected gross margin for June 2026
  • Lasertec's target price87,000 yenTarget price increased
  • Ebara's target price7,100 yenTarget price increased
  • Ulvac's target price9,400 yenTarget price decreased

Impact & implications

The report believes that although Ulvac's profit margin improvement is slow, the overall景气度of the semiconductor equipment industry will continue to improve, and technological upgrades will drive overgrowth and profitability improvements. Buy ratings are maintained for other companies, which will benefit from industry growth.

Risks

  • Profit margin improvement may be slower than expected
  • Delay in sales confirmation
  • Changes in competitive environment

What to watch

  • Ulvac's profit margin improvement progress
  • Changes in sales confirmation time and production cycle
  • Changes in industry competition structure
Zhejiang ICP No. 2022035445-5
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