The upward trend in optical networking continues, with RoboTechnik/FiconTEC benefiting from the AI infrastructure cycle

Overview

This report is Goldman Sachs' meeting note following RoboTechnik and FiconTEC's participation in the Asia Communacopia + Technology optical networking panel discussion. The report's core conclusion is that the AI infrastructure cycle is driving demand for high-speed optical interconnects, and optical networking is becoming increasingly important in enhancing single-chip computing power, connecting multi-chip collaboration, and enabling low-latency data exchange; through its acquisition of FiconTEC, RoboTechnik has entered SiPh device assembly and testing equipment and is positioned to benefit from trends in pluggable optical modules and CPO.

Core views

Goldman Sachs' core views include: first, leading global CSPs continue to invest in AI infrastructure, and upgrades in high-speed connectivity specifications will drive optical networking penetration; second, pluggable optical modules will continue to see strong growth, while CPO optical engines are emerging as a new trend; third, mass production of SiPh devices requires nanometer-level optical alignment, and FiconTEC's high-precision equipment and end-to-end solutions form a differentiated competitive advantage; fourth, Goldman Sachs maintains its Buy rating and Rmb688 target price for RoboTechnik.

Analysis framework

The report is based on management discussions at the conference, thematic research on optical networking, updates to the global optical module TAM, and Goldman Sachs' valuation framework. It focuses on assessing AI data center optical interconnect demand, the automation level of SiPh equipment, the market opportunity for CPO and pluggable optical modules, and RoboTechnik/FiconTEC's competitive positioning in the industry chain.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methods12-month target price model

  50x 2031E P/E discounted back to 2027E

  Goldman Sachs' 12-month target price of Rmb688 is based on 50x 2031E P/E, discounted back to 2027E using an 11.3% cost of equity. The target multiple references the PEG and M correlation of consumer electronics peers, while also considering RoboTechnik's 2032E net profit growth and operating margin.

• Factor analysisGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite factors

  Goldman Sachs' factor profile calculates relative percentiles using indicators such as forward sales, EBITDA, EPS, ROE, ROCE, CROCI, P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA, providing market and industry comparison context for stocks.

• M&A assessmentM&A Rank

  Acquisition likelihood score

  Goldman Sachs uses an M&A score from 1 to 3 to assess the probability that a covered company could become an acquisition target, where 1 represents high probability, 2 medium probability, and 3 low probability; scores of 1 or 2 may be incorporated into the target price.

• Database toolQuantum

  Goldman Sachs proprietary financial database

  Quantum provides historical, forecast, and ratio data for company financials and can be used for in-depth single-company analysis as well as cross-industry and cross-market comparisons.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• RoboTechnik (300757.SZ)

  Research target; completed the 100% acquisition of FiconTEC in 2025

  Strengths

  Benefits from AI infrastructure optical interconnect demand, with strong YoY revenue growth in 4Q25/1Q26; Goldman Sachs forecasts a 2026E-28E revenue CAGR of +103%.

  Weaknesses

  Valuation implies high growth expectations, and business growth is sensitive to demand for optical networking equipment and the success of FiconTEC integration.

  Comparison

  Compared with traditional semiconductor equipment, the automation level and ecosystem for SiPh device production are still underdeveloped; RoboTechnik/FiconTEC is positioned to drive standardized mass production from Lab to Fab.

  Risks

  Intensifying market competition, weaker-than-expected end demand for optical connectivity, and a sharper-than-expected downturn in the photovoltaic market.

• FiconTEC

  RoboTechnik subsidiary and supplier of SiPh device assembly and testing equipment

  Strengths

  Described by management as the only global supplier providing ultra-high-precision SiPh assembly and testing equipment for mass production, while also offering end-to-end solutions from wafer-level testing and PIC/SiPh device assembly to final verification.

  Weaknesses

  The business is in the rapidly evolving AI optical interconnect track, and revenue realization will be affected by customer mass-production timing, CPO technology routes, and the pace of industry standardization.

  Comparison

  Traditional semiconductor equipment struggles to meet the nanometer-level optical alignment requirements of SiPh devices, while FiconTEC's 5nm-class linear motion resolution provides differentiation.

  Risks

  The pace of CPO penetration, demand for pluggable optical modules, customer capex cycles, and changes in the competitive landscape.

• Optical networking/AI data center optical interconnects

  Downstream demand driver for RoboTechnik/FiconTEC

  Strengths

  Supports massive data transmission for AI servers, providing high-bandwidth, high-speed, low-latency connections, and is a key part of AI infrastructure upgrades.

  Weaknesses

  Demand depends on global CSP capex, GPU/AI server iteration, and the pace of network architecture upgrades.

  Comparison

  The report believes that even if CPO penetrates scale out, the pluggable optical module market is still expected to expand as systems evolve from GB300 to Rubin Ultra NVL576.

  Risks

  A slowdown in AI infrastructure investment, pricing pressure on optical modules, changes in technology routes, or delays in large-scale deployment.

Key data

• Report date2026-05-25The cover shows Equity Research 25May2026 8:35AM HKT.
• RatingBuyGoldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on RoboTechnik.
• 12-month target priceRmb688The target price is unchanged, based on 50x 2031E P/E discounted back to 2027E.
• Disclosed priceRmb549.50RoboTechnik's price is listed in the company-specific disclosure section.
• Implied upsideapproximately 25.2%Calculated based on the Rmb688 target price and the Rmb549.50 price.
• 4Q25/1Q26 revenue YoY growth+494%/+69%RoboTechnik achieved rapid growth after acquiring FiconTEC.
• FiconTEC revenue contributionmore than 50% in 2025FiconTEC contributed more than half of RoboTechnik's revenue in 2025.
• RoboTechnik revenue forecast2026E-28E CAGR +103%Goldman Sachs expects the company to maintain high compound revenue growth in 2026E-28E.
• Implied valuation at target price221x 2027E P/EThe report states that the target price implies 221x 2027E P/E.
• Net profit growth reference2027E-28E YoY +187%The report compares the high valuation with strong net profit growth.
• CPO switch forecast2026E/2027E/2028E at 15k/88k/110kFrom Goldman Sachs' global optical module TAM update.
• 800G and above pluggable optical module shipments2026E-28E CAGR 42%, reaching 118m units in 2028EGoldman Sachs expects high-end pluggable optical modules to maintain strong growth.
• Increase in optical content value16x/45x increase in dollar content for scale out/scale upIndustry market assumptions from Goldman Sachs' optical networking thematic report.
• Optical TAM expansionTAM expands 13x after extending from scale out to scale upReflects market expansion driven by upgrades in AI data center network architecture.
• FiconTEC precisionup to 5nm linear motion resolutionManagement emphasized that optical alignment for SiPh devices requires nanometer-level precision.

Impact & implications

If AI infrastructure investment continues, optical networking will become a critical bottleneck in computing scale expansion and low-latency interconnects. Through FiconTEC, RoboTechnik has gained SiPh assembly and testing equipment capabilities, enabling it to serve both pluggable optical modules and benefit from the CPO optical engine trend. The investment implication is that the company is moving from traditional equipment businesses into the AI data center optical interconnect equipment chain, with both revenue elasticity and valuation highly dependent on the realization of optical module/CPO demand and progress in mass-production automation.

Risks

• Market competition is more intense than expected.
• Demand for optical connectivity terminals is below expectations.
• The downturn cycle in the photovoltaic market is worse than expected.
• The penetration pace of CPO or pluggable optical modules falls short of expectations.
• The high valuation is sensitive to the realization of strong revenue and net profit growth.

What to watch

• Continued capex by leading global CSPs on AI infrastructure.
• Whether shipment growth of 800G and above pluggable optical modules reaches Goldman Sachs' forecast.
• The actual deployment pace of CPO switches in 2026E-28E.
• FiconTEC's orders, deliveries, and revenue contribution among mass-production SiPh device customers.
• Integration progress and margin changes after RoboTechnik's acquisition of FiconTEC.
• The extent to which the photovoltaic market downturn drags on the company's non-optical-networking businesses.