Horizon Robotics receives a Buy rating, with SoC shipment growth supporting the long-term outlook while front camera chips face near-term pressure

Overview

This report is Deutsche Bank's company update on Horizon Robotics (9660.HK), focusing on the shipment performance of China's autonomous driving SoC and ADAS front camera chips in February 2026, and using NE Times statistics to estimate advanced autonomous driving system penetration. The report maintains a positive view, with a Buy rating and a HKD 9.40 12-month target price.

Core views

The report's core view is that Horizon Robotics continues to grow and remain in the leading tier in the autonomous driving SoC market: February shipments reached 34,621 units, up 14% YoY, ranking fourth in China; however, its February ADAS front camera chip shipments were 55,943 units, down 26% YoY, showing weaker near-term performance than the SoC business. Looking at the full year, Deutsche Bank expects the company's 2026 processing hardware shipments to grow about 35% YoY to around 5.4 million sets, and will watch the new-generation cockpit-driving fusion Agentic CAR SoC "Starry Sky" and Agentic CAR OS scheduled for release on April 22, as well as the Journey 7 processing hardware planned for 2027.

Analysis framework

The report mainly uses industry shipment tracking and a penetration-rate proxy method: first, it uses NE Times' statistics on China's autonomous driving SoC total shipments and divides them by China's February retail sales to derive a proxy autonomous driving SoC penetration rate; then, based on the average 6.2 percentage point gap over the past three months between this proxy and the actual Level 2+/Level 3 advanced autonomous driving system penetration rate, it estimates February advanced autonomous driving system penetration. At the company level, it compares Horizon Robotics with competitors such as Nvidia, Tesla, Huawei, Mobileye, and Renesas in terms of shipment volume, market share, and YoY/MoM changes.

Methodology notes

• Industry data trackingNE Times chip shipment statistics

  Use autonomous driving SoC and ADAS front camera chip shipments to measure market share and competitive position.

  The report cites NE Times data to track the total shipments, major vendors' shipments, and market shares of China's autonomous driving SoC and ADAS front camera chip markets in February 2026.

• Penetration rate estimationSoC shipment proxy method

  Use total autonomous driving SoC shipments divided by passenger vehicle retail sales as a proxy for advanced autonomous driving system penetration.

  In February 2026, China's autonomous driving SoC shipments were about 382,000 units; dividing that by China's 1.12 million retail sales in February gives a 34.2% proxy penetration rate. After subtracting the average 6.2 percentage point premium that the proxy has over actual Level 2+/Level 3 penetration over the past three months, the February Level 2+/Level 3 penetration rate is estimated at 28.0%.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Horizon Robotics (9660.HK)

  The covered name in the report, rated Buy

  Strengths

  February autonomous driving SoC shipments grew 14% YoY, ranking fourth in China; 2026 processing hardware shipments are expected to grow about 35% YoY; the company will launch a new cockpit-driving fusion Agentic CAR SoC and Agentic CAR OS, and advance the Riemann Architecture BPU and Journey 7 platform.

  Weaknesses

  February ADAS front camera chip shipments fell 26% YoY, and cumulative shipments in Jan-Feb fell 33% YoY, indicating near-term pressure in this segment.

  Comparison

  In the autonomous driving SoC market, Horizon Robotics held a 9.1% share in February, behind Nvidia, Tesla, and Huawei; in the ADAS front camera chip market, Horizon Robotics held an 11.3% share in February, behind Mobileye and Renesas.

  Risks

  Vehicle sales volatility, lower-than-expected penetration of intelligent driving features, changes in shipment pace from major customers, price cuts or technology upgrades by competitors, and slower-than-expected mass production of the company's new products.

• China autonomous driving SoC market

  One of Horizon Robotics' core incremental markets

  Strengths

  Total shipments in February 2026 grew 1% YoY, and the estimated penetration rate of advanced autonomous driving systems increased by 9.5 percentage points YoY.

  Weaknesses

  Total shipments fell 18% MoM in February, showing clear short-term demand fluctuations due to the Lunar New Year or seasonality.

  Comparison

  Nvidia led with a 43.6% share, Tesla had 19.8%, Huawei had 10.4%, and Horizon Robotics had 9.1%.

  Risks

  Monthly shipment volatility in the industry, OEM self-developed chip substitution, and concentration of shares among leading suppliers.

• China ADAS front camera chip market

  A market related to Horizon Robotics' existing hardware business

  Strengths

  Horizon Robotics still maintained an 11.3% monthly market share and ranked third.

  Weaknesses

  In February 2026, industry shipments fell 9% YoY and 31% MoM, while Horizon Robotics' own shipments fell 26% YoY.

  Comparison

  Mobileye led with a 51.6% share, Renesas had 27.7%, Horizon Robotics had 11.3%, and AMD had 5.0%.

  Risks

  Slower demand for traditional ADAS front camera chips, share concentration among top suppliers, and pressure from price competition and product iterations.

Key data

• RatingBuyDeutsche Bank's current rating.
• Target priceHKD 9.4012-month target price.
• Current priceHKD 6.63As of April 2, 2026.
• Implied upsideapproximately 41.8%Calculated using the HKD 9.40 target price and HKD 6.63 current price, excluding dividends.
• China autonomous driving SoC totalabout 382,000 unitsFebruary 2026, up 1% YoY and down 18% MoM.
• Autonomous driving SoC proxy penetration rate34.2%Calculated by dividing about 382,000 SoCs by China's 1.12 million February retail sales, up 4.5 percentage points YoY and 3.4 percentage points MoM.
• Estimated Level 2+/Level 3 penetration rate28.0%February 2026, up 9.5 percentage points YoY and down 0.6 percentage points MoM.
• Horizon Robotics autonomous driving SoC shipments34,621 unitsFebruary 2026, up 14% YoY and down 21% MoM, with a 9.1% share and ranking fourth in China.
• Horizon Robotics autonomous driving SoC shipments in Jan-Feb 202678,659 unitsUp 9% YoY, with a 9.3% share.
• China ADAS front camera chip totalabout 496,000 unitsFebruary 2026, down 9% YoY and down 31% MoM.
• Horizon Robotics ADAS front camera chip shipments55,943 unitsFebruary 2026, down 26% YoY and down 21% MoM, with an 11.3% share and ranking third in China.
• Horizon Robotics ADAS front camera chip shipments in Jan-Feb 2026127,055 unitsDown 33% YoY, with a 10.4% share.
• 2026 processing hardware shipment forecastabout 5.4 million unitsDeutsche Bank expects about 35% YoY growth.
• 2026 processing hardware mix forecastabout 2.4 million Horizon Mono units, about 2.6 million Horizon Pilot units, and about 400,000 Horizon SuperDrive unitsThe report's forecast for the full-year processing hardware shipment mix.

Impact & implications

The investment implication for Horizon Robotics is relatively positive: autonomous driving SoC shipments are growing YoY, the company ranks among the top four in China, and the increase in full-year 2026 processing hardware shipment targets supports the growth case for its automotive intelligent hardware platform. At the same time, the YoY and MoM declines in ADAS front camera chip shipments show that part of the traditional ADAS hardware business still faces cyclical and competitive pressure. Investors should also watch new product launches, the Journey 7 roadmap, changes in SoC market share, and whether the decline in front camera chips continues.

Risks

• Continued declines in ADAS front camera chip shipments could weigh on the company's near-term growth quality.
• Horizon Robotics' autonomous driving SoC market share remains below Nvidia, Tesla, and Huawei, and the competitive landscape is highly concentrated.
• The forecast for about 35% YoY growth in 2026 processing hardware shipments depends on OEM demand, model rollouts, and supply chain execution.
• The timing, mass-production pace, and customer adoption of the new-generation Agentic CAR SoC, Agentic CAR OS, Riemann Architecture BPU, and Journey 7 remain uncertain.
• The report's penetration estimates are based on proxy indicators and historical gap assumptions; if the actual gap changes, the estimates may deviate from true penetration.

What to watch

• Progress on the release of the new-generation cockpit-driving fusion Agentic CAR SoC 'Starry Sky' and Agentic CAR OS on April 22.
• Whether actual 2026 shipments of Horizon Mono, Horizon Pilot, and Horizon SuperDrive come close to the full-year forecast of about 5.4 million units.
• Changes in Horizon Robotics' monthly autonomous driving SoC shipments, market share, and gap versus Nvidia, Tesla, and Huawei.
• Whether the YoY decline in ADAS front camera chip shipments narrows or reverses in subsequent months.
• Whether the gap between actual Level 2+/Level 3 advanced autonomous driving system penetration and the SoC proxy indicator remains stable.