Doosan Enerbility's 2Q results beat expectations; JPMorgan maintains Overweight and ranks it as its top nuclear EPC pick

Overview

This is a JPMorgan 2Q26 earnings review on Doosan Enerbility. The report's core conclusion is that the company's 2Q operating profit beat expectations, full-year orders are still progressing in line with the W13.3tn guidance, gas turbine orders are strong, and commentary on nuclear projects is positive; therefore, JPMorgan maintains its Overweight rating and December 2027 target price of W130,000, and names Doosan as its top pick in nuclear EPC coverage.

Core views

JPMorgan believes the 2Q earnings beat was mainly driven by strong contributions from Doosan Bobcat amid resilient demand for construction equipment in the US; the parent company's operating profit of W97bn was broadly in line with expectations but slightly below JPMorgan's W105bn forecast. On orders, the parent company's 2Q orders were W4.3tn, representing about 53% completion of full-year guidance, while gas turbine-related order progress reached W5.0tn, providing strong support against the full-year W6.2tn guidance. On nuclear power, South Korea's 12th Basic Plan is expected to be announced by year-end, and long-cycle material orders for US Westinghouse projects are also visible; however, SMR orders still need to materialize in the second half.

Analysis framework

The report uses a combination of earnings review, order progress tracking, management guidance cross-checking, and valuation updates: it first compares 2Q operating profit with JPMorgan and market expectations, then breaks down contributions from Bobcat and the parent company; it then evaluates full-year completion for gas turbine, nuclear power, and SMR orders; finally, it raises 2026-28 operating profit forecasts by 1-7% and maintains the target price using a sum-of-the-parts valuation.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodssum-of-the-parts (SOTP)

  Sum-of-the-parts valuation

  The W130,000 target price is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the core business using a 1.9x 2028E price/orderbook upcycle multiple.

• Order analysisorderbook run-rate tracking

  Order completion tracking

  The report compares the parent company's 2Q orders and first-half order progress against the full-year W13.3tn guidance to judge whether the full-year order target remains on track.

• Earnings forecastearnings revision

  Earnings forecast revision

  JPMorgan raised its 2026-28 operating profit forecasts by 1-7%, mainly reflecting an upward revision to Bobcat's contribution after 2Q.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Doosan Enerbility (034020.KS)

  Core covered name and top pick in nuclear EPC coverage

  Strengths

  2Q operating profit beat expectations, gas turbine orders are strong, visibility on nuclear power and US projects is improving, and the business mix covers large-scale nuclear power, SMR, and gas turbines.

  Weaknesses

  Parent company operating profit was slightly below JPMorgan's forecast, and SMR orders still need to materialize in the second half.

  Comparison

  The report ranks it as the top pick in nuclear EPC coverage, believing its order book expansion and business mix are more attractive.

  Risks

  Delays in large-scale nuclear power projects, adverse developments in SMR customer approvals or technology progress, and failure of second-half orders to materialize.

• Doosan Bobcat

  Subsidiary and an important contributor to the 2Q earnings beat

  Strengths

  US construction equipment demand remains resilient, generating stronger-than-expected profit contributions.

  Weaknesses

  If demand resilience weakens, it could reduce support for earnings upgrades.

  Comparison

  Compared with the parent company's business this quarter, Bobcat made a more prominent contribution to the overall earnings beat.

  Risks

  Weakening US construction equipment demand or a cyclical downturn.

Key data

• 2Q operating profitW314bnAbove JPMorgan's forecast of W283bn and market consensus of W279bn.
• Parent company 2Q operating profitW97bnBroadly in line with expectations, but below JPMorgan's forecast of W105bn.
• Parent company 2Q ordersW4.3tnAbout 53% completion of the full-year W13.3tn order guidance.
• Gas turbine-related order progressW5.0tnCompared with the full-year W6.2tn guidance, including combined-cycle gas power plant EPC.
• 1H gas turbine orders12 gas turbines, 6 steam turbines, 5 LTSAsLTSA refers to long-term service agreement.
• SMR annual targetApproximately W1tnManagement needs to secure the related orders in 2H.
• 2026E revised EPSW628Previous forecast was W512, raised by 22.8%.
• 2026-28 operating profit forecast revisionRaised by 1-7%Mainly driven by an upward revision to Bobcat forecasts.
• Current priceW70,600As of July 27, 2026.
• Target priceW130,000December 2027 target price.

Impact & implications

If gas turbine orders continue to exceed expectations, South Korea's nuclear power basic plan is implemented on schedule, and US long-cycle material orders begin, Doosan Enerbility's order visibility and valuation support will strengthen. The report also implies that the company has a more balanced mix across large-scale nuclear power, SMR, and gas turbines, helping it benefit under different energy investment scenarios.

Risks

• Large-scale nuclear power projects may be delayed.
• SMR customer progress may face adverse changes, such as approval or technical issues.
• The approximately W1tn SMR annual order target needs to be secured in the second half; failure to achieve this could create downside risk.
• Gas turbine production scheduling is tight, which signals tight supply-demand conditions but may also constrain the delivery pace.

What to watch

• Whether South Korea's 12th Basic Plan will be announced before year-end.
• The level of support from the Korea Southwest mega project for semiconductor plant and data center construction.
• Whether long-cycle material orders for US Westinghouse projects will be secured within the year.
• Progress on long-cycle material and core component orders from NuScale and other SMR design companies.
• Whether incremental gas turbine orders in the second half will drive full-year orders above guidance.