Hilo Research河洛投研
Quick Summary
Covering the latest research from top Wall Street investment banks

Qingming long weekend disrupted order pace, with NEV makers broadly hitting the brakes on new orders

Institution
Morgan Stanley
Date
2026-04-08
Authors
Stanley Wang, Peggy Wang, Tim Hsiao, Shelley Wang, CFA, Joey Xu, CFA
Company
China Auto & Shared Mobility Industry
Ticker
1211.HK/002594.SZ, 2015.HK/LI.O, 9866.HK/NIO.N, 9868.HK/XPEV.N, 0175.HK, LI.O, NIO.N, XPEV.N
Industry
Auto Manufacturers; EV
Rating
Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line
NeutralLow confidenceThe report notes that weekly new order momentum at major NEV makers weakened during the Qingming three-day long weekend, with most automakers declining on a week-over-week basis, while XPeng and Tesla China posted sequential improvement. The industry view remains In-Line, overall positioning is still relatively light, and the market is still assessing whether the inflection in auto demand reflects a genuine seasonal improvement or merely short-term noise.
AuthorsStanley Wang, Peggy Wang, Tim Hsiao, Shelley Wang, CFA, Joey Xu, CFA
CoverageAsia-Pacific
Asset classesEquity
Business segmentsAutomobiles、Shared mobility、New energy vehicles、Batteries
Research firm divisions/subsidiariesMorgan Stanley Asia Limited（Other）、Morgan Stanley（Other）

AI summary card

Qingming long weekend disrupted order pace, with NEV makers broadly hitting the brakes on new orders

Morgan Stanley believes weekly order momentum at major NEV makers weakened from March 30 to April 5; excluding XPeng and Tesla China, most brands declined by about 20%-30% sequentially, while more than 40 new vehicle launches around the April Beijing Auto Show may push April sales further toward month-end.

Industry view: Asia Pacific Industry View In-Line; the report did not provide a single-company target price or any upgrade/downgrade action.
China autosNEVsWeekly ordersBeijing Auto ShowIndustry View In-Line
  • Weekly order momentum at major NEV makers weakened last week, with the Qingming three-day long weekend travel disruption as an important backdrop.
  • Among the major EV brands, only XPeng and Tesla China achieved sequential order growth; the rest posted average declines of around 20%-30%.
  • XPeng was boosted by the launch of the 2026 MONA M03 on April 2, with weekly orders up 103%, and the model contributed more than 70% of incremental order inflow.
  • More than 40 new vehicle launches are expected around the April Beijing Auto Show, which may make April sales more back-loaded toward the end of the month.

Report interpretation

Overview

This report tracks weekly order changes in the China auto and shared mobility segment during March 30 to April 5, 2026. The core conclusion is that travel disruptions and a slowing purchase cadence during the Qingming three-day long weekend broadly weakened order momentum at major NEV makers; however, XPeng improved significantly on new model launches, and Tesla China also posted a modest sequential increase.

Core views

Morgan Stanley keeps its Asia Pacific auto industry view at In-Line. In the near term, industry demand signals are mixed: orders at most automakers retreated from the prior week's highs, and post-launch order spikes for some new models are starting to normalize; however, market positioning remains relatively light, and the dense wave of new vehicle launches around the Beijing Auto Show may delay or push back April sales realization. Therefore, the focus should be on whether order recovery persists, rather than treating a single week's fluctuation as a trend reversal.

Analysis framework

The report reviews weekly order trends from March 30 to April 5 based on channel checks and compares them with the March 23 to March 29 order range and monthly changes, with a focus on the impact of major NEV makers and new model launches on order inflow.

Methodology notes

  • High-frequency industry trackingChannel-check weekly order tracking

    Assess demand pace through week-over-week changes in new orders

    The report uses channel feedback to compare weekly orders at major NEV makers in order to gauge short-term demand momentum, holiday disruption, and the pull from new model launches.

  • Relative industry viewMorgan Stanley Industry View

    In-Line industry view

    In-Line means the analyst expects the covered industry to perform roughly in line with the relevant benchmark over the next 12-18 months.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

  • BYD (1211.HK/002594.SZ)
    A leading NEV maker and a bellwether for industry demand
    Strengths
    The Song Ultra attracted order traction thanks to its "flash charging" feature, contributing 6%-8% of last week's new orders.
    Weaknesses
    Weekly orders fell 18% sequentially, indicating a slowdown in order momentum amid holiday disruption.
    Comparison
    Weaker than XPeng and Tesla China, but the decline is smaller than NIO, Aito, Leapmotor, and Xiaomi.
    Risks
    If demand does not recover after the April new vehicle launches, the market may reassess order resilience.
  • Li Auto (2015.HK/LI.O)
    A representative of China's NEV SUV and range-extended EV segment
    Strengths
    i-Series sales remained broadly stable at 3.5-4k.
    Weaknesses
    Weekly orders declined 17% sequentially, and the L Series is still undergoing de-stocking ahead of the April L9 facelift.
    Comparison
    The decline is close to BYD's, better than NIO and Aito, but lacks the new-model order catalyst seen at XPeng.
    Risks
    De-stocking in the L Series and the facelift transition may continue to affect near-term order pace.
  • NIO (9866.HK/NIO.N)
    A premium NEV maker
    Strengths
    The upcoming launches of NIO ES9 and Onvo L80 could provide a follow-on order catalyst.
    Weaknesses
    Weekly orders fell 29% sequentially, and month-over-month declined 12%.
    Comparison
    The decline is larger than BYD and Li Auto, and near-term momentum is weaker than XPeng and Tesla China.
    Risks
    If the new model launches do not improve orders, the market may worry about the strength of brand demand recovery.
  • XPeng (9868.HK/XPEV.N)
    A new-model-cycle-driven NEV maker
    Strengths
    Weekly orders rose 103% sequentially, and the 2026 MONA M03 contributed more than 70% of order inflow.
    Weaknesses
    The order improvement depends heavily on the new model launch, and sustainability still needs to be watched.
    Comparison
    The strongest performer among major EV makers and one of the few brands with weekly order growth.
    Risks
    The post-launch order spike may gradually normalize, and the conversion and delivery pace will need to be verified.
  • Tesla China
    An important foreign-brand reference point in China's NEV market
    Strengths
    Weekly orders rose 6% sequentially, with month-over-month broadly flat.
    Weaknesses
    The increase was limited and did not show a meaningful acceleration in demand.
    Comparison
    Stronger than most domestic brands, but weaker than XPeng's new-model-driven elasticity.
    Risks
    Order stability may come under pressure if pricing, competitor launches, and consumer wait-and-see sentiment intensify.
  • Geely Galaxy (0175.HK)
    Geely's NEV sub-brand
    Strengths
    Month-over-month still rose 3%, and several models are set to launch in late April.
    Weaknesses
    Weekly orders fell 10% sequentially.
    Comparison
    The decline is relatively mild and better than most brands that posted sequential drops.
    Risks
    The conversion of new launches into orders and internal model cannibalization need to be monitored.

Key data

  • BYD order change-18% WoWCompared with 74-74.5k units in the March 23 to March 29 period; the Song Ultra's "flash charging" drew attention and contributed 6%-8% of last week's new orders.
  • Li Auto order change-17% WoWCompared with 6.6-6.8k units in the prior week; de-stocking in the L Series continued, while i-Series sales remained broadly stable at 3.5-4k.
  • NIO order change-29% WoWCompared with 7.5-7.7k units in the prior week, with month-over-month down 12%; the launches of NIO ES9 and Onvo L80 remain focal points.
  • XPeng order change+103% WoWCompared with 6.5-6.7k units in the prior week, with month-over-month up 76%; the 2026 MONA M03 launched on April 2 and contributed more than 70% of order inflow.
  • Tesla China order change+6% WoWCompared with 8-8.2k units in the prior week, with month-over-month broadly flat.
  • Aito order change-27% WoWOrders normalized after the M6 launch spike, with month-over-month down 15%.
  • Leapmotor order change-46% WoWCompared with 20.7-20.9k units in the prior week; orders normalized after nearly doubling following the A10 launch, though month-over-month remains +21%.
  • Geely Galaxy order change-10% WoWCompared with 19.5-19.7k units in the prior week, with month-over-month up 3%; the M7/E7/A7/Starshine 7/Starship 7 are expected to launch in late April.
  • ZEEKR order change-19% WoWCompared with 7-7.2k units in the prior week; the 9X order backlog remains strong, and more than 50k refundable orders are in place for the 8X.
  • Xiaomi order change-31% WoWNew orders after the SU7 launch have normalized from the peak, while YU7 orders are stable at 3-3.5k.

Impact & implications

The report's implication for the sector is mildly neutral: weaker weekly orders suggest that the holiday and new product cycle transition may weigh on near-term sales pace, but product-launch-driven brands such as XPeng show that new model introductions can still meaningfully lift orders. The dense April launch calendar may lead investors to focus more on month-end orders and delivery recovery rather than the weekly decline itself.

Risks

  • Weekly order data may be distorted by the Qingming long weekend and should not be directly extrapolated into a long-term trend.
  • The dense wave of new model launches around the Beijing Auto Show may delay consumer ordering, leaving April sales more back-loaded.
  • Some brands' order spikes are driven by new model launches, and these may normalize afterward.
  • Morgan Stanley discloses potential conflicts of interest, including investment banking relationships, shareholdings, or market-making activities with several covered companies; investors should make independent judgments using other information as well.

What to watch

  • Order conversion after more than 40 new vehicle launches around the April Beijing Auto Show.
  • Whether XPeng's 2026 MONA M03 order spike can persist and convert into deliveries.
  • Further increases in BYD Song Ultra and "flash charging" as a share of orders.
  • Whether de-stocking in the Li Auto L Series eases after the L9 facelift.
  • The impact of the NIO ES9 and Onvo L80 launches on NIO orders.
  • Order performance after several Geely Galaxy model launches in late April.
© 2026 Hilo ResearchAbout UsPrivacy PolicyTerms of Service
Zhejiang ICP No. 2022035445-5
Disclaimer: Market data, charts, indicators, research views, and other information provided on this website are intended solely for information display, research communication, and educational reference. They should not be regarded as personalized investment advice, securities recommendations, trading instructions, solicitations, or guarantees of return. While we strive to improve the reliability of our data and content, such information may still be subject to delays, errors, incompleteness, or untimely updates due to source differences, methodological limitations, system processing, or market volatility. Users should exercise independent judgment based on their own circumstances and bear all risks and responsibilities arising from the use of this website.

Settings

Sign in to view recent logins