Week 27 China NEV orders flat wow, with BYD the strongest performer driven by Seal 08

Overview

This report provides Goldman Sachs' weekly chart-based tracking of China's new energy passenger vehicle market, covering Week 27 orders for key brands, CPCA retail and wholesale trends, upcoming events, terminal dealer discounts, and upstream battery material prices. The key conclusion is that NEV orders were flat wow but remained under yoy pressure, while BYD stood out due to the launch of new models in the Seal 08 series and industry penetration remained high.

Core views

Goldman Sachs believes that overall NEV orders did not improve wow in Week 27, but BYD, Tesla, and Nio were more defensive in terms of mix. BYD's order growth was mainly driven by the Seal 08 DM and Seal 08 EV, launched on July 2. On a year-to-date order basis, Nio, HIMA, and Tesla performed relatively steadily. On pricing, narrower NEV discounts are favorable for assessing whether competitive pressure is easing; wider ICE vehicle discounts indicate that pressure at the traditional vehicle terminal remains. Upstream, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose significantly, while mainstream prismatic cell prices remained stable.

Analysis framework

The report combines weekly order tracking, CPCA retail and wholesale data, terminal price discount monitoring, upstream battery material price monitoring, and an upcoming events calendar to assess short-term demand, price competition, and cost changes across China's NEV value chain.

Methodology notes

• Industry trackingWeekly NEV order charts

  Aggregate weekly orders for key NEV OEMs by brand and compare wow, yoy, and year-to-date performance.

  This method captures short-term demand changes and relative brand strength, with particular attention to the effects of new model launches, high bases, and industry seasonality on orders.

• Price monitoringDealer discount tracking

  Compare changes in dealer discounts for NEVs and ICE vehicles relative to MSRP.

  Changes in discounts can reflect terminal competitive intensity, inventory pressure, and marginal changes in price wars.

• Value chain monitoringBattery material and cell price tracking

  Track prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate, prismatic LFP cells, and prismatic NCM cells.

  Upstream material and cell prices help assess battery cost trends and their potential impact on vehicle profitability.

• Institutional methodology disclosureGS Factor Profile

  Goldman Sachs uses growth, financial returns, valuation multiples, and composite indicators to compare stocks on a relative basis.

  This framework is a general stock analysis tool disclosed by Goldman Sachs; this weekly report does not provide specific factor results for any individual stock.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• BYD

  Key NEV OEM and strongest brand in this week's order performance

  Strengths

  The launch of the Seal 08 DM and Seal 08 EV drove a 23% wow increase in orders, while dealer discounts were below the prior-year level.

  Weaknesses

  Against a backdrop of overall industry yoy decline, the sustainability of growth still requires validation from subsequent weekly orders.

  Comparison

  BYD had the strongest wow performance this week compared with Tesla and Nio.

  Risks

  The boost from the new model launches may be temporary; performance could weaken if orders subsequently decline or price competition intensifies.

• Tesla

  One of the key NEV brands

  Strengths

  Weekly orders declined 3% wow, relatively defensive among key brands; year-to-date orders were approximately flat yoy.

  Weaknesses

  No clear wow growth momentum was evident.

  Comparison

  Its wow performance was weaker than BYD's but better than that of most brands facing greater yoy pressure.

  Risks

  Intensifying competition and changes in terminal discounts in China could affect orders and profit margins.

• Nio

  One of the key NEV brands

  Strengths

  Year-to-date orders increased 98% yoy, indicating relative defensiveness; Nio will officially launch the five-seat ES8 on July 9.

  Weaknesses

  Week 27 orders declined 7% wow, indicating continued short-term volatility.

  Comparison

  Its year-to-date growth was stronger than Tesla's and that of most peers.

  Risks

  The effectiveness of the new model launch, delivery pace, and price competition remain key uncertainties going forward.

• China NEV value chain

  Industry asset portfolio covered by the report

  Strengths

  June retail and wholesale penetration was approximately 63%, with structural industry penetration remaining high.

  Weaknesses

  Weekly orders for key OEMs still declined yoy, indicating pressure from high bases and demand volatility.

  Comparison

  NEV discounts narrowed wow while ICE vehicle discounts widened wow, indicating diverging terminal pricing pressure between the two vehicle categories.

  Risks

  Weakening demand, renewed price wars, rising raw material prices, and new models underperforming expectations.

• Battery materials and cells

  Upstream cost variables for NEVs

  Strengths

  Prismatic LFP and NCM cell prices were stable wow.

  Weaknesses

  Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose 8.9% wow, potentially increasing cost concerns.

  Comparison

  Upstream material prices rose faster than cell prices changed.

  Risks

  If lithium prices continue to rise and cannot be absorbed through efficiency gains or pricing, profits in the battery and vehicle segments could be compressed.

Key data

• Aggregate orders for key NEV OEMs in Week 270% wow / -41% yoyExcluding Xiaomi's high base resulting from the June 26, 2025 launch of the YU7, yoy growth was -13%.
• BYD weekly order performance+23% wow / +11% yoyGrowth was mainly driven by the Seal 08 DM and Seal 08 EV, launched on July 2.
• Tesla weekly order performance-3% wowRelatively defensive wow performance among key brands.
• Nio weekly order performance-7% wowYear-to-date orders grew 98% yoy, indicating relative resilience.
• June passenger vehicle retail volume1,651k unitsDown 21% yoy and up 9% wow, according to CPCA data.
• June passenger vehicle wholesale volume2,376k unitsDown 4% yoy and up 7% wow, according to CPCA data.
• June NEV retail volume1,037k unitsDown 7% yoy and up 9% wow.
• June NEV wholesale volume1,506k unitsUp 22% yoy and 11% wow.
• June NEV penetration62.8% retail / 63.4% wholesaleThe corresponding May figures were 63%/61.1%.
• Average NEV dealer discount7.17%As of July 4, narrowed from 7.43% on June 27.
• Average BYD dealer discount4.10%As of July 4, unchanged from June 27 and below 5.56% on July 7, 2025.
• Average ICE vehicle dealer discount20.01%As of July 4, above 19.61% on June 27 and below 22.12% on July 7, 2025.
• Battery-grade lithium carbonate priceRmb165k/tonUp 8.9% wow.
• Prismatic LFP and NCM cell pricesstable wowStable wow.

Impact & implications

In the short term, aggregate NEV orders showed no meaningful wow growth, but penetration remained high at approximately 63%, indicating that structural substitution of traditional ICE vehicles by NEVs continues. BYD's new models drove order improvement, showing that product cycles remain a key variable in brand differentiation. If NEV discounts continue to narrow, this could ease pressure from price wars on profit margins; however, rising lithium carbonate prices could create cost-side disruption, and it will be important to monitor whether this is passed through to cells and vehicles.

Risks

• The relatively large yoy decline in weekly NEV orders indicates that demand recovery remains fragile.
• The high base caused by Xiaomi's YU7 launch requires caution when interpreting yoy comparisons.
• Wider ICE vehicle discounts could intensify overall passenger vehicle price competition.
• Rising battery-grade lithium carbonate prices could create cost-side pressure.
• The boost to orders from new model launches may be short-lived, and sustainability requires subsequent validation.
• Regulatory disclosures indicate that research views and market trading strategies may change over time, and the report does not constitute personalized investment advice.

What to watch

• Nio will officially launch the five-seat ES8 on July 9.
• On July 10-11, CPCA will release industry and model-level wholesale/retail data for passenger vehicles and NEVs.
• XPeng will officially launch the MONA L03 on July 16.
• WAIC will open in Shanghai on July 17.
• Li Auto will launch the L6 facelift in July.
• NEV OEM monthly sales will be released on August 1.
• On August 10-11, CPCA will release industry and model-level wholesale/retail data for passenger vehicles and NEVs.
• Continue tracking changes in dealer discounts for NEVs and ICE vehicles.
• Continue monitoring whether battery-grade lithium carbonate, LFP cell, and NCM cell prices show further pass-through.