Swiss watch exports rose 10% year-on-year in July, with strong US growth offsetting Asia's slowdown
AI summary card
Swiss watch exports rose 10% year-on-year in July, with strong US growth offsetting Asia's slowdown
J.P. Morgan notes that Swiss watch exports remained resilient in July, rising 10% year-on-year overall, with accelerating demand in the US as the key driver. Asian markets including China and Japan weakened, while the high-end price band continued to post strong growth.
- Swiss watch exports increased 10% year-on-year in July, versus 11% growth in June, against a year-on-year comparison base 13 percentage points higher.
- Exports to the US grew 26.5% year-on-year and were up 83% cumulatively over two years, making it the primary source of growth.
- Exports to China fell 18.5% year-on-year, while exports to Japan declined 4%, indicating weaker momentum in Asia.
- Exports of watches priced above SF3,000 increased 12% year-on-year, with high-end demand remaining resilient.
Report interpretation
Overview
This report tracks year-on-year changes in Swiss watch export value in July 2026, broken down by destination market and price band. Its core conclusion is that overall export growth remained resilient, driven mainly by a sharp acceleration in the US; Europe was broadly stable, while Asia—particularly China and Japan—weakened. The high-end price band continued to outperform mid-range products.
Core views
Swiss watch export value rose 10% year-on-year in July 2026, sustaining the 11% growth momentum seen in June despite a comparison base that was 13 percentage points higher. The number of trading days was unchanged from the prior year, so growth was not driven by trading-day differences. The report therefore concludes that the overall Swiss watch export trend remains resilient, although growth drivers show clear regional divergence. The US was the key driver of growth during the month: export growth to the US accelerated from 13% year-on-year in June to 26.5%, despite a comparison base 63 percentage points higher. On a two-year basis, US exports increased 83%, compared with a 7% decline in the prior month. The report notes that US exports rose 45% year-on-year in July last year, versus an 18% decline in June 2025, amid a highly uncertain trade environment and inventory prebuilding; this made the comparison base for the month particularly demanding. The marked acceleration in the US despite this backdrop is the core evidence supporting the resilience of total exports. European markets remained broadly stable, with exports to Europe up 11.5% year-on-year in July, broadly in line with 12% growth in June, while the comparison base was only 170 basis points lower. By market, exports to France rose 105% year-on-year, broadly consistent with 104% growth in June; the report attributes this to re-export dynamics to other destinations. Exports to Germany returned to 12% growth, compared with an 11% decline in May, while the comparison base fell by 20 percentage points. UK export growth eased modestly from 12% in June to 9.5%, despite a similar comparison base. Italy remained weak, with exports down 21% year-on-year, unchanged from June, even though the comparison base was 9 percentage points lower. Asian markets, by contrast, decelerated. Exports to China fell 18.5% year-on-year, worsening from a 16.5% decline in June, despite a comparison base 13 percentage points lower, indicating that monthly performance remains volatile and shows no improvement. Exports to Hong Kong, China rose only 0.5% year-on-year, down from 7% in June, while the comparison base was 15 percentage points higher. Exports to Japan declined 4% year-on-year, compared with 9% growth in June, against a broadly similar comparison base. The report thus juxtaposes strong US-led growth with cooling in key Asian markets, showing that aggregate growth masks regional demand divergence. By price band, high-end watches continued to demonstrate resilience. Exports of watches priced above SF3,000 rose 12% year-on-year, slightly below 14% in June, but against a comparison base 19 percentage points higher; average growth in the second quarter was flat. The SF500-3,000 price band declined 4% year-on-year, a slight improvement from a 5% decline in June, while the comparison base was 16 percentage points lower. The SF200-500 price band grew 26% year-on-year, below 54% following a sharp acceleration in the prior month, but against a comparison base 31 percentage points higher. For low-end watches priced below SF200, year-on-year export growth slowed from 10% to 5%. Overall, the report emphasizes the relative stability of the high-end price band, continued negative growth in the mid-range segment, and decelerating momentum in lower price bands despite continued growth.
Analysis framework
The report uses year-on-year growth in Swiss watch export value to first assess the overall export trend, then breaks down results across the US, Europe, and key Asian markets, incorporating changes in comparison bases and two-year growth to test the strength of growth. It subsequently compares export performance by price band to identify demand divergence across consumer tiers.
Methodology notes
Year-on-year tracking of export value by destination market and price band
The report compares year-on-year export growth across countries and price bands, incorporating year-on-year comparison bases and two-year growth to assess the resilience of growth.
Key data
- Year-on-year growth in total Swiss watch exports (July 2026)+10%+11% in June; the year-on-year comparison base was 13 percentage points higher, and the number of trading days was unchanged from the prior year.
- Year-on-year growth in exports to the US (July 2026)+26.5%+13% in June, against a year-on-year comparison base 63 percentage points higher; +83% on a two-year basis, versus -7% in the prior month.
- Year-on-year growth in exports to Europe (July 2026)+11.5%+12% in June, with a year-on-year comparison base 170 basis points lower.
- Year-on-year growth in exports to China (July 2026)-18.5%-16.5% in June, with a year-on-year comparison base 13 percentage points lower.
- Year-on-year growth in exports to Hong Kong, China (July 2026)+0.5%+7% in June, against a year-on-year comparison base 15 percentage points higher.
- Year-on-year growth in exports to Japan (July 2026)-4%+9% in June, with a broadly similar year-on-year comparison base.
- Year-on-year growth in exports of watches priced >SF3,000+12%+14% in June, against a year-on-year comparison base 19 percentage points higher.
- Year-on-year growth in exports of watches priced SF500-3,000-4%-5% in June, with a year-on-year comparison base 16 percentage points lower.
Impact & implications
The report considers total export growth to primarily reflect strong demand from the US and the relative resilience of the high-end price band. At the same time, weakness or deceleration in China, Japan, and certain European markets indicates uneven demand across regions. The report explicitly links France's strong growth to re-export dynamics, so it should not be interpreted simply as a broad improvement in local end-market demand.