Miniso’s 1Q26 positive earnings preannouncement showed sales and adjusted operating profit slightly above expectations; Goldman Sachs maintains Buy.

Overview

This report reviews Miniso’s positive 1Q26 earnings preannouncement released on May 13, 2026. The company expects both revenue and adjusted operating profit to come in slightly above Goldman Sachs estimates, indicating good progress on cost control. Although reported net profit is below Goldman Sachs’ forecast, this is mainly due to items such as interest expense and losses related to TOP TOY redemption liabilities; Goldman Sachs still believes the company’s growth outlook is underestimated by the market and maintains a Buy rating.

Core views

Goldman Sachs’ core view is that revenue was slightly better than market expectations, adjusted operating margins were better than previously feared, and adjusted operating profit growth exceeded the company’s 1H26 guidance, showing that cost control remains on track. Going forward, investors will focus on the sustainability of same-store sales growth in key markets such as China and the United States, the path to regional margin improvement, the 2026E outlook, and progress in IP development.

Analysis framework

The report compares the company’s 1Q26 earnings preannouncement range with Goldman Sachs’ forecasts and the company’s guidance, breaks down the differences in revenue, operating profit, adjusted operating profit, net profit, and adjusted net profit, and evaluates the investment case using valuation, dividend yield, 12-month target price, and key operating catalysts.

Methodology notes

• Valuation method15x 2026E P/E

  Target price valuation multiple

  Goldman Sachs’ 12-month target price of US$21.3/HK$42 is based on 15x 2026E P/E.

• Factor frameworkGS Factor Profile

  Growth, financial returns, valuation multiple, and composite factors

  This framework uses Goldman Sachs forecasts and standardized rankings to compare a stock’s growth, financial returns, valuation multiple, and composite attributes versus peers and the market.

• M&A frameworkM&A Rank

  Acquisition target probability tier

  Goldman Sachs uses levels 1 to 3 to assess the probability of a company becoming an acquisition target; the chart in this report shows Miniso’s M&A rank as 3, indicating a low probability and generally not included in the target price.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• MNSO.US

  Covered security; Miniso ADR

  Strengths

  Adjusted operating profit and adjusted net profit beat Goldman Sachs estimates, valuation is below 10x 2026E P/E, and the target price implies about 51% upside.

  Weaknesses

  Reported net profit was below Goldman Sachs’ estimate, and SSSG and margin improvement still need to be validated.

  Comparison

  Compared with Goldman Sachs’ forecast, revenue is about 2% higher, adjusted operating profit is about 6% higher, and adjusted net profit is about 3% higher.

  Risks

  Lower store efficiency in China, weaker-than-expected global SSSG recovery and store openings, geopolitics, higher-than-expected expenses, and Yonghui’s earnings performance.

• 9896.HK

  The H-share listed security of the same company

  Strengths

  Goldman Sachs maintains a 12-month target price of HK$42, implying about 51.1% upside to the current HK$27.80 price.

  Weaknesses

  The stock has historically been quite volatile and has pulled back in early 2026 from prior target prices and historical highs.

  Comparison

  The conclusion is consistent with MNSO.US, but quoted in HKD; the target price and current price use different currency systems.

  Risks

  The same risks as the ADR, plus Hong Kong market liquidity and regional risk appetite.

• TOP TOY

  Related business/sub-brand, affecting the income statement

  Strengths

  As part of the company’s diversified product and IP ecosystem, it may support long-term growth.

  Weaknesses

  Related ESOP expenses and preferred-share redemption liability losses pressured reported profit.

  Comparison

  The report treats TOP TOY-related items as one of the important reasons why reported profit is below Goldman Sachs’ forecast.

  Risks

  Expense, investment, and liability revaluation volatility may continue to affect reported profit.

Key data

• 1Q26 revenue guidance rangeRmb5,678mn-5,728mnUp 28%-29% YoY, above Goldman Sachs’ forecast of Rmb5,587mn and the company’s guidance of at least 25% growth.
• 1Q26 operating profit guidance rangeRmb1,511mn-1,531mnSlightly below Goldman Sachs’ forecast of Rmb1,559mn, possibly affected by TOP TOY-related ESOP expenses and foreign exchange losses.
• 1Q26 adjusted operating profit guidance rangeRmb829mn-849mnUp 13%-16% YoY, above Goldman Sachs’ forecast of Rmb793mn.
• 1Q26 adjusted net profit guidance rangeRmb624mn-644mnUp 7%-10% YoY, above Goldman Sachs’ forecast of Rmb617mn.
• Reported net profit guidance rangeRmb1,228mn-1,248mnBelow Goldman Sachs’ forecast of Rmb1,367mn, mainly due to higher interest expense and TOP TOY preferred-share redemption liability losses.
• 12-month target priceUS$21.3 / HK$42For the ADR and H-share respectively, implying about 51% upside.
• 2026E valuationBelow 10x 2026E P/EThe report believes the current valuation does not fully reflect the growth outlook.
• 2026E dividend yieldAbout 5%The chart shows a 2026E dividend yield of about 5.4%.
• Full results release time2026-05-26 5pm HKTThe company will release full results and hold an earnings call.

Impact & implications

This earnings preannouncement reinforces market confidence in Miniso’s cost control and adjusted profitability. If same-store sales growth, regional margin improvement, and IP development continue to deliver, the low valuation and dividend yield could provide room for valuation re-rating; however, if China consumption slows, US high-base pressure persists, or global store expansion falls short of expectations, earnings leverage and valuation re-rating may be limited.

Risks

• Intensifying competition in China, lagging product innovation, or product quality issues could reduce store efficiency and affect retailers’ willingness to expand.
• Global SSSG recovery and store expansion may be weaker than expected.
• Geopolitical risks.
• OPEX and additional investment may be higher than expected.
• Yonghui’s earnings performance may miss expectations.
• Slower consumption after the Chinese New Year and a higher base in the US market could affect the sustainability of same-store sales growth.

What to watch

• The full results release and 5pm HKT earnings call on 2026-05-26.
• Mainland China Labor Day holiday demand and post-holiday SSSG performance.
• Recent sales trends in key markets.
• The 2026E outlook, quarterly cadence, and 2Q26 guidance.
• Regional SSSG trends, drivers, and outlook.
• Regional margin trends, improvement levers, and expansion path.
• IP development progress.