Strong stapokibart sales in the first half and upgraded full-year guidance, with CM512 and CM336 further enhancing long-term value

Overview

The report focuses on Keymed Biosciences' results for the first half of 2026 and progress across its core pipeline. Goldman Sachs believes stapokibart's sales performance validates the company's commercial execution capabilities, while CM512, CM336, and the oncology pipeline are expanding its sources of long-term growth and partnering optionality. Accordingly, Goldman Sachs makes minor adjustments to its earnings forecasts and raises its target price.

Core views

stapokibart's commercial performance was the primary highlight of the results. The product generated RMB393mn in sales in the first half of 2026, up 132% year on year. Despite a stricter anti-corruption environment in the healthcare industry, management formally raised its full-year 2026 sales guidance from RMB750mn to RMB850mn. Management attributed the better-than-expected performance to rapid volume growth driven by medical insurance coverage, access to more than 1,600 hospitals, and an increase in average treatment duration to more than 5 months. stapokibart was approved in China for atopic dermatitis and chronic rhinosinusitis in the second half of 2024 and for seasonal allergic rhinitis in February 2025, making it the first domestically developed IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody after dupilumab. The report believes its two-year period of exclusivity on the national reimbursement drug list, inclusion in the national essential medicines list, penetration into lower-tier markets, and declining costs from scaled biologics manufacturing will support long-term peak sales exceeding RMB5bn; Goldman Sachs assumes this level will be reached in 2035. Commercial expansion also drove expenses higher, with selling expenses increasing 59% year on year in the first half of 2026. However, gains from the Ouro transaction lifted net profit for the period to RMB1.2bn, while the cash balance rose to RMB3.2bn. The report therefore believes the company currently has ample funding to advance both its internal R&D pipeline and overseas expansion, rather than relying on a single commercial product to fund R&D. Goldman Sachs views CM512 as a core asset that could complement and expand the stapokibart portfolio, rather than merely defend the existing market. Semiannual dosing remains its key differentiating advantage. The report also notes that newly disclosed data in chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps showed clinical improvement within one week and significant reductions in both nasal polyps and nasal congestion by week four, suggesting that long-acting dosing may not require sacrificing efficacy. The company's confidence in CM512's competitive positioning is increasing, and subsequent development may include head-to-head studies against established biologics. Goldman Sachs believes this is a meaningful signal because Chinese biotechnology companies have historically focused more on registration pathways than superiority studies. Commercially, management envisions stapokibart being used for induction treatment and CM512 for long-acting maintenance treatment, meaning CM512 could expand rather than cannibalize the existing market opportunity. Its dosing schedule could potentially be once quarterly or once every six months. Overseas phase 1 asthma data are expected to be released by Belenos in the second half of 2026, while phase 2 data for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China are expected in 2027. In oncology, Sone-Ve achieved positive phase 3 overall survival results in second-line and later gastric cancer. The market is currently focused on its regulatory progress, but management places greater emphasis on the value from first-line gastric cancer and perioperative treatment. AstraZeneca's US$3-5bn peak sales target is primarily driven by earlier-line treatment settings. The perioperative opportunity is particularly noteworthy: management indicated that after patients undergo gastrectomy, gastrointestinal toxicity associated with the target may become less pronounced, potentially increasing the suitability of a CLDN18.2 ADC for earlier-stage disease. Beyond Sone-Ve, the CDH17 ADC CM518 is positioned as the next internally developed flagship ADC, while other bispecific ADCs are also advancing toward the clinical stage. The company plans to gradually build its oncology commercialization capabilities as the pipeline matures, and Goldman Sachs believes oncology could become a second strategic pillar alongside immunology over the long term. CM336's positioning is also evolving. Goldman Sachs is now more inclined to view it as an autoimmune platform rather than a single asset primarily targeting myeloma. The product has shown competitive efficacy in relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma, but its more meaningful differentiation may come from safety: as of the report's disclosure, the incidence of cytokine release syndrome was low, with no meaningful neurotoxicity signals identified. Because chronic autoimmune diseases require substantially greater long-term tolerability than oncology treatment, these characteristics may broaden CM336's scope of application. Following the Gilead transaction, its global development is accelerating, with global pivotal trials in AIHA and ITP expected to begin in 2027. Studies in multiple myeloma and AL amyloidosis in China are also continuing. Beyond the leading assets, Goldman Sachs also highlights the company's discovery platforms and business development optionality. Its existing technology portfolio includes long-acting bispecific antibodies, bispecific ADCs, central nervous system delivery technology, an siRNA platform, and targeted protein degradation technology. Among these, preclinical data from the blood-brain barrier delivery platform indicate that central nervous system exposure to both antibodies and oligonucleotides can be significantly increased, potentially expanding its applications in neurodegenerative diseases. The report therefore believes Keymed Biosciences' increasingly prominent competitive advantage lies not only in any single product but also in the productivity of its discovery engine, which continuously generates assets with global partnering value. Following the results announcement, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026E, 2027E, and 2028E earnings forecasts by RMB46mn, RMB55mn, and RMB63mn, respectively. Given the acceleration of CM336's global development, Goldman Sachs included its commercial contribution in the DCF for the first time, assuming a 2029E launch. The risk-adjusted DCF values stapokibart, CM512, Sone-Ve, and CM336 at US$1.4bn, US$1.1bn, US$809mn, and US$977mn, respectively, with cash and other items valued at US$239mn. The stapokibart valuation corresponds to approximately 2.0 times peak-sales PS. Applying a 12.0% discount rate and 3% terminal growth rate, Goldman Sachs raises its 12-month target price from HK$110.01 to HK$118.88 and maintains its Buy rating.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs first assesses stapokibart's commercial execution through sales growth, full-year guidance, hospital coverage, and treatment duration, and then evaluates the company's ability to continue investing in R&D and overseas expansion based on expenses, transaction gains, and its cash balance. The report subsequently analyzes the clinical differentiation, indication-expansion pathways, development timelines, and commercial synergies of CM512, Sone-Ve, CM336, and early-stage technology platforms. Finally, it incorporates changes in operating performance and contributions from newly added pipeline assets into a risk-adjusted DCF to derive revisions to earnings forecasts and the target price.

Methodology notes

• Valuation methodologyDCF discounted cash flow

  Risk-adjusted DCF valuation

  The report separately estimates the future value of core drugs, cash, and other items and discounts them to present value using a 12.0% discount rate and a 3% terminal growth rate. CM336 was included in the model for the first time due to accelerated global development, with a 2029E launch assumed.

• Valuation methodologyPS valuation

  Peak-sales multiple cross-check

  The report notes that stapokibart's US$1.4bn valuation corresponds to approximately 2.0 times peak-sales PS, using a sales multiple to help illustrate the pricing level implied by its DCF valuation.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Keymed Biosciences (2162.HK)

  The report believes the company benefits from the commercial ramp-up of stapokibart, the expansion of indications and portfolios for CM512 and CM336, and long-term partnering optionality arising from its oncology and delivery technology platforms.

  Strengths

  stapokibart has a first-mover advantage as a domestically developed IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody, rapid hospital penetration, and relatively long treatment duration. The company has an ample cash balance and an R&D engine spanning immunology, ADCs, and novel delivery technologies.

  Weaknesses

  Commercial expansion drove a 59% year-on-year increase in selling expenses in the first half of 2026, while the value of multiple mid- to late-stage assets still depends on successful clinical development, registration, and commercialization.

  Comparison

  stapokibart is the first domestically developed IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody after dupilumab and is the only domestically developed IL-4R monoclonal antibody during its two-year period of exclusivity on the national reimbursement drug list. CM512 may validate its competitiveness through future head-to-head studies against established biologics.

  Risks

  Failure in the development of core pipeline assets, weaker-than-expected commercial execution, and potential pricing pressure caused by intensifying competition.

Key data

• stapokibart sales in the first half of 2026RMB393mnUp 132% year on year
• stapokibart 2026 sales guidanceRMB850mnPreviously RMB750mn
• Hospital coverageMore than 1,600Supports rapid volume growth driven by medical insurance coverage
• Average treatment durationMore than 5 monthsReflects longer patient treatment periods
• Long-term peak sales of stapokibartMore than RMB5bnGoldman Sachs expects this level to be reached by 2035E, while management also remains confident that the long-term peak will exceed this level
• Selling expenses in the first half of 2026Up 59% year on yearTo support commercial expansion
• Net profit in the first half of 2026RMB1.2bnPrimarily driven by gains from the Ouro transaction
• Cash balanceRMB3.2bnProvides funding for the internal pipeline and overseas expansion
• Early clinical improvement with CM512Within one weekNasal polyps and nasal congestion were significantly reduced by week four
• Key dosing differentiation of CM512Once every six monthsThe report also mentions potential convenient dosing regimens of once quarterly or once every six months
• Sone-Ve peak sales targetUS$3-5bnAstraZeneca's target is primarily driven by earlier-line treatment settings
• Earnings forecast revisions2026E/2027E/2028E increased by RMB46mn/RMB55mn/RMB63mn, respectivelyReflects results for the first half of 2026
• Assumed CM336 launch timing2029ECommercial contribution included in the DCF for the first time following accelerated global development
• DCF valuations of core assetsstapokibart US$1.4bn; CM512 US$1.1bn; Sone-Ve US$809mn; CM336 US$977mn; cash and other items US$239mnComponent valuations under the risk-adjusted DCF
• Key DCF parameters12.0% discount rate, 3% terminal growth rateUsed to calculate the 12-month target price
• 12-month target priceHK$118.88Raised from HK$110.01

Impact & implications

The report believes stapokibart's sales growth and guidance upgrade validate Keymed Biosciences' commercial execution capabilities amid industry headwinds and provide a foundation for the company's valuation. CM512 could expand the existing immunology market through long-acting maintenance treatment, while CM336's expansion into autoimmune diseases, Sone-Ve, and other ADCs add a second growth pillar and business partnering optionality. Ample cash should support the simultaneous advancement of these programs. These developments prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its earnings forecasts and target price.

Risks

• Core pipeline assets face the risk of R&D failure or clinical results falling short of expectations.
• Product commercialization execution remains uncertain.
• Increasing competitive intensity may create pricing pressure.

What to watch

• Watch for overseas phase 1 asthma data for CM512, expected to be released by Belenos in the second half of 2026.
• Watch for data from phase 2 studies of CM512 in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in China, expected in 2027.
• Watch for the global pivotal trials of CM336 in AIHA and ITP, expected to begin in 2027.
• Watch for regulatory progress for Sone-Ve in second-line and later gastric cancer, as well as development opportunities in first-line and perioperative settings.