Goldman Sachs remains Buy on Xiaomi as SkyNomad’s 10k+ locked orders in four minutes support its EV growth thesis.

Overview

Goldman Sachs reviews Xiaomi’s SkyNomad launch and reiterates its Buy view. It sees the initial locked-order response, product differentiation and Xiaomi’s “Human x Car x Home” ecosystem as support for EV expansion, while highlighting post-October 7 order disclosure as the next key test.

Core views

Xiaomi launched its new product lineup at its September 7 event, including the XRING O3 flagship AI SoC, the Xiaomi 18 Fold and Pad 9 Pro Max using that chip, and the SkyNomad EREV range. SkyNomad N70 Pro, N70 Max and N90 Max were priced at RMB209.9k, RMB239.9k and RMB269.9k, respectively, while the N90 Max Explore Edition was priced at RMB299.9k. The N70 Max and N90 Max official prices were RMB20k and RMB30k below their presale prices. Goldman Sachs believes the wider CarIoT and accessory offering, priced at RMB6k-20k and partly discounted during the first 30 sales days through October 7, could raise sales contribution by positioning SkyNomad as “a house you can move.” The report considers more than 10k locked orders within four minutes to be a strong initial validation of its bullish SkyNomad thesis. Its reasoning rests on differentiated features—a large and configurable interior, range capability, safety standards and a smart cabin—combined with Xiaomi’s ability to stimulate consumer demand through R&D-led product features and consumer insight. Goldman Sachs frames the addressable opportunity as more than 5mn annual China SUV sales excluding BEVs, with starting prices of RMB100k-400k. It also points to Xiaomi’s hero-product strategy and its add-on and CarIoT ecosystem as commercial advantages. The institution cautions that investors may focus on the absence of further order data until after October 7, but expects Xiaomi to follow the disclosure approach used for the SU7 facelift in 1H26 to reduce aggressive peer competition. For context, the SU7 facelift received more than 15k locked orders in its first 34 minutes and more than 80k during its initial 48-day sales period through the Labor Day Golden Week. Goldman Sachs believes Xiaomi’s execution on the SU7 facelift has shown an improved ability to smooth the launch-order peak and sustain healthy demand after the initial release. Goldman Sachs also views the limited launch lineup—four SkyNomad versions—as strategically disciplined. It believes Xiaomi may retain N70 Standard, N90 Standard and N90 Pro variants for later release, with additional Kunlun-platform versions possible over the coming years. This reserve of product variants could provide flexibility if competition intensifies. Forecasts are unchanged: Goldman Sachs models SkyNomad volumes of 80k in 2026E and 350k in 2027E, with the latter equal to 7% of the more than 5mn China SUV units, excluding BEVs, sold in 2025 at RMB100k-400k starting prices. Its bull case envisages roughly 500k SkyNomad units in 2027E if Xiaomi captures 10% of this addressable market, including trade-up and internal-combustion-engine demand. Xiaomi EV gross margin is also held unchanged at 19-20% in 2026-27E. At the broader Xiaomi EV level, the firm models deliveries of 450k, 740k and 962k in 2026E, 2027E and 2028E. Beyond the vehicle launch, Goldman Sachs sees Xiaomi as early in a multi-year ecosystem expansion under its “Human x Car x Home” strategy. It cites Xiaomi’s balance sheet, ecosystem-integration capability, scale-related cost advantages and deep EV supply-chain involvement as factors that could strengthen its EV competitiveness and its position in consumer physical intelligence. The firm maintains a Buy rating and a 12-month HK$39 target price, derived from a sum-of-the-parts framework comprising 16x target 12-month-forward EV/NOPAT for Xiaomi core, a US$35bn DCF valuation for Xiaomi EV using a 12% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate, and a 10% holding-company discount.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs combines launch-event product and pricing analysis with initial order data, comparisons with the SU7 facelift and competing SUV models, and an assessment of China’s addressable SUV market. It then keeps its EV delivery and gross-margin forecasts unchanged and values Xiaomi using a sum-of-the-parts approach that separates the core business from the EV business.

Methodology notes

• Industry AnalysisSupply-demand framework

  Addressable-market and volume-share analysis for China SUVs.

  The report estimates SkyNomad’s opportunity against more than 5mn annual China SUV sales excluding BEVs at RMB100k-400k price points, then tests base and bull-case volumes as shares of that market.

• Valuation methodsSOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts) Valuation

  Sum-of-the-parts valuation for Xiaomi core and Xiaomi EV.

  Goldman Sachs values the core business at 16x target 12-month-forward EV/NOPAT and combines it with a separately derived EV valuation before applying a holding-company discount.

• Valuation methodsDCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

  DCF valuation of Xiaomi EV.

  The report assigns Xiaomi EV a US$35bn value using a 12% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK)

  Primary covered company; SkyNomad demand and EV execution are key elements of the investment thesis.

  Strengths

  Differentiated EV products, ecosystem integration, scale-related cost advantages, balance-sheet strength and consumer-demand creation capabilities.

  Weaknesses

  2026E revenue, EBITDA and EPS are forecast to decline versus 2025 before recovering in 2027E.

  Comparison

  SkyNomad’s initial order response is compared with the SU7 facelift, while the report benchmarks comparable SUV models.

  Risks

  Competition, gross-margin pressure, weaker premiumization or EV execution, geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty, softer demand and FX fluctuations.

Key data

• SkyNomad initial locked orders10k+ within 4 minutesGoldman Sachs views the response as reinforcing its bullish SkyNomad sales thesis.
• SkyNomad 2026E/2027E volume80k / 350k unitsUnchanged estimates; 2027E equals 7% of the cited addressable China SUV market.
• SkyNomad 2027E bull-case volumec.500k unitsBased on capturing 10% of 5mn annual SUV units excluding BEVs at RMB100k-400k starting prices.
• Xiaomi EV gross margin19-20%Goldman Sachs estimate for 2026-27E, unchanged.
• Xiaomi EV deliveries450k / 740k / 962kGoldman Sachs forecasts for 2026E, 2027E and 2028E.
• Target price and implied upsideHK$39; 41.8%Based on a current price of HK$27.50.

Impact & implications

The report argues that a successful SkyNomad rollout would reinforce Xiaomi’s transition from a consumer-electronics and AIoT platform into a broader “Human x Car x Home” ecosystem. Sustained orders after the initial launch, rather than the first four minutes alone, are central to validating its delivery and margin assumptions.

Risks

• More intense global smartphone competition and weaker market-share gains.
• Greater gross-margin pressure in the smartphone or EV businesses.
• Execution below expectations in Xiaomi brand premiumization or the EV business.
• Intensifying geopolitical risks and regulatory uncertainty.
• A softer macro environment and weaker smartphone or IoT demand.
• Foreign-exchange fluctuations.

What to watch

• Potential release of the MiMo-V3 AI model as soon as September, following Xiaomi-TabLDM.
• SkyNomad locked-order volume disclosure after October 7.
• Singles’ Day GMV as a potential indicator of an inflection in domestic IoT revenue growth.