Nomura: Maintains Buy on Orbbec; Bullish on Robotics Volume Growth and Multi-Scenario Penetration

Overview

This report comprises meeting notes from Nomura Securities' China Advanced Manufacturing Tour, focusing primarily on the machine vision supply chain. Through an on-site visit to unlisted company Mech-Mind Robotics, the report analyzes the competitive landscape and technological evolution of 3D vision in industrial automation. Against this backdrop, it positions Orbbec (688322.SH) as a provider of general-purpose vision solutions and reiterates a 'Buy' rating. The report argues that with the advancement of embodied intelligence and humanoid robots, demand at the visual perception layer is surging. Leveraging its accumulated expertise in biometrics and general sensors, Orbbec is well-positioned to capture a broader incremental market.

Core views

In the industrial robotics segment, Mech-Mind Robotics, as a machine vision company, focuses on providing AI 'brains' and 3D vision systems for embodied intelligent robots. Management disclosed that the company has maintained the No. 1 market share in domestic large-field-of-view 3D grasping (e.g., depalletizing/palletizing) for six consecutive years. A deployment case at a parcel processing center in Tianjin demonstrated a throughput of up to 1,800 items per hour. Notably, Mech-Mind does not manufacture robot arms but adapts to all categories of arms. This model enables it to acquire more data through diverse application scenarios, which in turn feeds back into algorithm models, creating a positive feedback loop of 'increased data → model optimization → improved generalization and stability.' Additionally, overseas customers account for approximately 50% of its base, indicating a relatively diversified customer structure. From a business model perspective, Mech-Mind's core revenue stems from 'eyes' (3D vision) and 'brain' (algorithms/models). Management noted that the industry is transitioning from heavy custom integration toward standardized, easy-to-deploy solutions, with the company training 2,000–3,000 customer personnel annually to support this shift. Its 'Eye-Brain-Hand' (EBH) platform aims to address the 'broad, long-tail, and diversified' needs of the robotics industry. Compared to manual labor and specialized automation equipment, its solution offers advantages including high scalability, no need for large on-site teams, and low customization requirements. However, regarding the 'dexterous hand' component, management acknowledged that scaled monetization has not yet been achieved. Industry research also suggests caution, noting Mech-Mind's strength lies in vision rather than motion control; developing mature proprietary dexterous hands requires time and equity incentives to attract talent. Nevertheless, the research view holds that the first-mover advantage in 'eyes' is sufficient to support long-term adaptation across various future robot forms, even if 'hand' development lags temporarily. In comparing with listed company Orbbec, the report points out that the two target different market segments and are not in direct head-to-head competition. Mech-Mind holds a first-mover advantage in 'eyes' (3D vision), suitable for segmented high-value niche markets requiring mobility, high precision, and wide-area positioning, with outstanding structured light and anti-interference capabilities. In contrast, Orbbec is positioned in the general-purpose track to capture a larger universal market covering payments (facial recognition), social security facial verification, service robots, and humanoid robots. The research further suggests that Mech-Mind's 3D vision technology could also adapt to the perception and imitation learning needs of humanoid robots, while differentiating itself from motion capture and inertial navigation players to meet adjacent needs for imitation learning data collection.

Analysis framework

The report employs an analytical framework combining 'supply chain field research + peer cross-comparison.' First, analysts obtained firsthand information on 3D vision implementation, data flywheel effects, and industry pain points (such as R&D difficulties for dexterous hands) by visiting upstream core component suppliers (Mech-Mind Robotics). Second, using these industry insights and technological trends as benchmarks, they evaluated the competitive positioning of the covered target (Orbbec). Rather than simply viewing the two as competitors, the report distinguishes between 'specialized niche markets' and 'general broad markets,' arguing that Orbbec possesses greater upside potential in the general-purpose track, thereby supporting the logic for its high valuation and high growth.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkUpstream-Midstream-Downstream Supply Chain Transmission

  Assessing industry sentiment and technological trends by researching upstream core component suppliers

  Instead of relying solely on Orbbec's financial reports, the research team first investigated an upstream or peer-level vision technology company (Mech-Mind Robotics). They extracted common industry patterns such as '3D vision is a core bottleneck for embodied intelligence' and 'data-driven algorithm iteration,' then mapped these patterns onto Orbbec to assess its beneficiary logic.

• Competition and Strategy FrameworkMoat / competitive advantage

  Data Flywheel Effect and First-Mover Advantage

  The report mentions that 'doing more generates more data, thereby improving models,' representing a classic network effect and data moat. In the AI era, companies possessing more real-world scenario data build barriers in algorithm generalization capabilities. This is the key logic underpinning the report's assessment of Mech-Mind's稳固 position and Orbbec's long-term competitiveness in vision.

• Valuation MethodologyPS valuation

  Price-to-Sales (P/S) Multiple Valuation

  For high-growth tech stocks where profits may not yet be fully realized, the report adopted P/S valuation. The CNY 130 target price is based on 18x 2027E P/S, referencing the volatility range of its 4-year historical average P/S (23x) (0.6 standard deviations below the mean). This reflects a premium for high-growth certainty alongside consideration of current valuation reasonableness.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Orbbec (688322.SS)

  Beneficiary Target: Positioned as a leader in general-purpose vision sensors, benefiting from widespread penetration in humanoid robots, service robots, and biometrics markets.

  Strengths

  Broad coverage in general-purpose tracks (payments, social security, service robots, humanoid robots); supported by multiple business lines including biometrics and 3D printing; projected sales CAGR of up to 62% for 2025-28.

  Weaknesses

  The report does not explicitly mention specific weaknesses but highlights risks of weak demand in the biometrics market.

  Comparison

  Unlike Mech-Mind Robotics, Orbbec is not confined to niche markets like high-precision industrial depalletizing/palletizing but targets the broader general consumer and public service markets, resulting in differentiated competition.

  Risks

  Robotics business volume ramp-up falling short of expectations; intensified competition pressuring pricing and market share; weak demand in the biometrics market.

• Mech-Mind Robotics

  Reference Target: Unlisted; used to validate technological trends and competitive dynamics in the 3D vision industry.

  Strengths

  No. 1 in domestic large-field-of-view 3D grasping market for six consecutive years; possesses an 'Eye-Brain' data flywheel effect; high proportion of overseas business enhances resilience against single-market risks.

  Weaknesses

  Dexterous hands (execution end) have not yet achieved scaled monetization; motion control capabilities lag behind vision capabilities; proprietary dexterous hand development faces talent incentive and time cost challenges.

  Comparison

  Focuses on segmented high-value markets requiring strong structured light and anti-interference capabilities, forming a complementary or adjacent substitution relationship with general perception needs for humanoid robots.

  Risks

  Technological gap with competitors such as Hikrobot may be narrowing.

Key data

• Orbbec Target PriceCNY 130.00Based on 18x 2027F P/S valuation
• Orbbec Current PriceCNY 133.73As of June 18, 2026
• Mech-Mind Robotics Market ShareNo. 1 DomesticallyMaintained leading market share in large-field-of-view 3D grasping for six consecutive years
• Mech-Mind Overseas Customer Share~50%Relatively diversified customer distribution
• Orbbec Expected Sales CAGR62%Expected compound annual growth rate for 2025-2028
• Historical Average P/S Multiple23xAverage Price-to-Sales ratio over the past 4 years

Impact & implications

The report posits that 3D vision technology is becoming a critical entry point for embodied intelligence and humanoid robots. Mech-Mind's success in specific verticals validates the commercial value of this technology, while Orbbec, as a general-purpose platform, is expected to gain greater market elasticity during the humanoid robot boom. Despite near-term risks of intensified competition and fluctuating biometric demand, its long-term growth logic remains robust.

Risks

• Slower-than-expected ramp-up in robotics business
• Intensified market competition pressuring pricing and market share
• Weak demand in the biometrics market

What to watch

• Actual volume ramp-up progress of Orbbec's robotics business
• Pace of commercialization in humanoid robot and embodied intelligence industries
• Overall demand shifts in the biometrics market