Goldman Sachs: North American Live Entertainment Attendance Rebounds; Maintains Buy Ratings on Three Industry Leaders

Overview

This report is a monthly high-frequency data tracking report issued by Goldman Sachs' Americas Entertainment team, covering key metrics for the North American live entertainment industry through the end of April 2026. The report monitors industry sentiment through multi-dimensional data including Placer AI geolocation data, HundredX consumer sentiment, Sensor Tower app downloads, and Pollstar tour announcements. Core conclusions indicate that demand for North American live entertainment remains resilient, with significant year-over-year improvements in stadium and amphitheater attendance and an increase in the number of concert announcements. Based on robust fundamentals and data performance, Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings and corresponding price targets for Live Nation (LYV), MSG Entertainment (MSGE), and Sphere Entertainment (SPHR).

Core views

Demand Side: North American live entertainment attendance shows a divergent but generally positive trend. As of April 2026, North American stadium attendance year-to-date increased 6% year-over-year, accelerating from 4% in March; amphitheater attendance surged 59% year-over-year, though absolute volumes remain small due to seasonality; arena attendance dipped slightly by 1% year-over-year, essentially flat compared to 2025 levels. Specifically regarding companies, attendance at Madison Square Garden (The Garden), owned by MSG Entertainment, grew 5% year-to-date, outperforming the flat status in March, but attendance at its Beacon Theatre and Chicago Theatre declined by 3% and 8% year-over-year, respectively. The Las Vegas Sphere faced headwinds in April attendance due to seasonal factors, but the report notes that Placer data may underestimate actual attendance (excluding children and international tourists, etc.). Supply Side and Industry Ecosystem: The concert market supply remains active. There were 19 major tour announcements in April, higher than the 16 in April 2025, with announcements distributed more evenly across major venue types. Live Nation maintains the highest market share among top promoters. However, pricing structures have shifted; total gross revenue for the top 100 tours in 2025 declined, primarily driven by a mix effect of a 9% year-over-year decrease in average ticket prices, despite ticket sales volume remaining roughly flat. Digital Channels and Consumer Sentiment: As an industry leader, Ticketmaster's consumer brand sentiment continues to improve, though it still lagged industry peers by approximately 210 basis points in March. In terms of app performance, Ticketmaster's standalone downloads decreased 6% year-over-year in April, driven mainly by specific markets, but global monthly active users (MAU) grew 21% year-over-year, outpacing domestic and international competitors. This may reflect the effectiveness of the company's strategy to encourage web users to switch to the app. Additionally, concert discovery platforms like Bandsintown and Songkick have become integral components of the entertainment ecosystem through integrations with Apple Music, among others. Valuation and Ratings: Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings for the three covered companies. Live Nation (LYV) has a price target of $190, based on 2027 expected EV/EBITDA, P/FCF, and DCF valuations; MSG Entertainment (MSGE) has a price target of $67, based on 2027 expected TEV/Operating Income, P/FCF, and DCF valuations; Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) has a price target of $140, using a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, where the core Sphere business contributes $116 and future network expansion potential contributes $24.

Analysis framework

Goldman Sachs employs a "High-Frequency Data Cross-Validation" analytical framework. First, it utilizes Placer AI's geolocation big data to track actual foot traffic across various venue types (stadiums, arenas, amphitheaters) to quantify offline demand heat. Second, it combines HundredX consumer Net Promoter Score (NPS) and Purchase Intent (NPI) surveys to assess brand loyalty and potential demand. Third, it monitors ticketing app downloads and monthly active users via Sensor Tower to reflect user stickiness in digital channels. Finally, it integrates Pollstar's tour announcement and box office data to judge industry activity from the supply side. This multi-dimensional data tracking method compensates for the lag inherent in single financial data points, providing investors with a real-time snapshot of industry sentiment.

Methodology notes

• Industry/Sector Analysis FrameworkSupply and Demand Framework

  Supply and Demand Framework

  The report simultaneously tracks demand-side metrics (attendance, consumer sentiment) and supply-side metrics (number of tour announcements, new venue openings), analyzing the degree of match between the two to determine industry sentiment and pricing power.

• Valuation MethodSOTP Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation

  SOTP Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation

  When valuing Sphere Entertainment, it is broken down into three parts: core Sphere business, MSG Networks, and future network expansion potential. Each part is valued separately and then summed to more accurately reflect the value drivers of different business segments.

• Valuation MethodEV/EBITDA valuation

  EV/EBITDA Valuation

  For capital-intensive or high-depreciation companies like Live Nation, Enterprise Value multiples (EV/EBITDA) are used for valuation to eliminate the impact of differences in capital structure and depreciation policies, facilitating horizontal comparison.

• Valuation MethodDCF Discounted Cash Flow

  DCF Discounted Cash Flow

  Uses Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) and Terminal Growth Rate (TGR) to discount future free cash flows, used to assess a company's intrinsic long-term value, particularly when forecasting the potential of new businesses (such as Sphere expansion).

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (LYV)

  Benefit: The rebound in industry attendance and increase in tour announcements directly benefit its promotion and ticketing businesses; expansion of the Venue Nation pipeline provides long-term growth points.

  Strengths

  Highest market promoter share; powerful venue network; monopolistic position in ticketing platforms.

  Weaknesses

  Negative consumer sentiment regarding its fees; regulatory risks.

  Comparison

  Possesses the most complete vertically integrated industry chain compared to peers.

  Risks

  Economic slowdown leading to weakened consumer spending; intensified talent competition; rising interest rates.

• Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (MSGE)

  Benefit: Madison Square Garden attendance grew 5% year-over-year, demonstrating the appeal of its core assets.

  Strengths

  Owns landmark venues in New York; stable lease agreements with sports teams (Knicks, Rangers).

  Weaknesses

  Declining attendance at other venues (Beacon, Chicago); high geographic concentration (mainly in Manhattan).

  Comparison

  More reliant on New York local market performance compared to national operators.

  Risks

  Changes in New York real estate tax exemptions; lease renewal risks; risks associated with high leverage and floating-rate debt.

• Sphere Entertainment Co (SPHR)

  Benefit: Despite seasonal headwinds in April, new venue expansion and content diversification are the main long-term drivers.

  Strengths

  Unique immersive experience technology; high brand awareness.

  Weaknesses

  Content reliance on the WoZ show; high operating costs.

  Comparison

  No direct comparable peers; possesses uniqueness.

  Risks

  Delays in new venue construction; failure in content diversification; macroeconomic impact on tourism and entertainment spending.

Key data

• North American Stadium Attendance YoY+6%Year-to-date through April 2026, accelerating from +4% in March
• North American Amphitheater Attendance YoY+59%Year-to-date through April 2026, small base due to seasonality
• North American Arena Attendance YoY-1%Year-to-date through April 2026, essentially flat
• New Tour Announcements in April19Higher than 16 in April 2025
• Ticketmaster Global MAU YoY+21%Growth rate exceeds domestic and international competitors
• Ticketmaster Standalone Downloads YoY-6%Primarily driven by specific markets
• Top 100 Tours Average Ticket Price YoY (2025)-9%Led to a decline in total gross revenue despite flat ticket sales volume

Impact & implications

The report believes that the demand foundation for the North American live entertainment industry remains solid, especially with strong growth momentum in large stadiums and outdoor performances, which benefits industry leaders with high-quality venue resources and promotion capabilities. As an industry consolidator, Live Nation's new venues in its Venue Nation pipeline (such as the Mexico arena and Tampa theater) will provide momentum for future growth. Although Ticketmaster faces certain regulatory pressures and consumer sensitivity to fees, its user stickiness and market dominance remain solid. For MSG and Sphere, despite facing fluctuations in local venue attendance and seasonal factors, the appeal of core assets has not diminished, and Sphere's network expansion story continues to provide valuation support.

Risks

• Weakening economic and consumer spending backdrop
• Changes in consumer preferences for going out for entertainment
• Intensified talent competition among promoters
• Rising interest rates
• Legislative regulation targeting ticketing practices (e.g., all-in pricing, resale restrictions)
• Sphere new venue announcements or execution falling short of expectations
• MSG losing New York real estate tax exemptions or sports team lease agreements

What to watch

• Sustainability of attendance rates across various North American venue types in subsequent months
• Further changes in Ticketmaster consumer sentiment indicators
• Progress on opening new venues in Live Nation's Venue Nation pipeline
• Latest developments in ticketing legislation across US states
• Content diversification initiatives at Sphere Las Vegas and announcements of new venues