JPMorgan North America Metals & Mining Weekly: U.S. steel looks more like a relative safe haven, while nuclear fuel and critical minerals are driven by policy and supply chain security

Overview

This is a JPMorgan North America Metals & Mining weekly report positioned as a one-stop summary of metals and mining-related events, data, research, expert calls, investor sentiment, and company developments. The report focuses on themes including U.S. steel supply and demand, uranium and nuclear fuel procurement, critical minerals and rare earth supply chains, Agnico Eagle mine site visits, the Carpenter Technology management meeting, the precious metals outlook, and aluminum inventory and demand.

Core views

The core views are as follows: First, the U.S. steel industry may retain relative safe-haven characteristics and achieve higher mid-cycle profitability, supported by resilient demand, low inventories, weaker imports, Section 232 tariffs, and relative supply chain insulation. Second, value capture in the nuclear fuel cycle depends more on utility recontracting, supply chain access, midstream capacity, and Russia’s future role than on spot prices alone. Third, critical minerals and rare earths remain affected by China’s export controls and industrial policy, increasing the importance of building non-China supply chains, with suppliers such as MP that have national security relevance receiving more attention. Fourth, long-term structural positives for gold remain intact, but the short term requires renewed improvement in the dollar, real yields, and the path of geopolitical conflict; the extreme tightness in silver has somewhat eased. Fifth, aluminum inventory and demand data are cautious, but scrap spreads, new rolling mill startups, and Middle East disruptions remain important variables for downstream margins.

Analysis framework

The report combines a weekly event summary with thematic research: using expert calls and conference notes to validate industry supply-demand and procurement logic, tracking company-specific events through company announcements and regulatory filings, supplementing the commodity framework for precious metals, aluminum, copper, steel, and others with JPMorgan’s recent sector research, and observing changes in buy-side expectations through investor feedback.

Methodology notes

• Industry supply-demand balanceSteel supply-demand and lead-time tracking

  Assess the U.S. steel earnings cycle through demand, inventories, imports, capacity, and HRC lead times.

  The report updates the U.S. steel supply-demand balance and combines it with HRC lead-time data from SMU and Platts to assess whether low inventories, weaker imports, and resilient demand can support higher metal spreads and better mill utilization.

• Expert callsNuclear fuel procurement chain analysis

  The nuclear fuel market is not just about spot prices, but also recontracting pace, midstream capacity, delivery lead times, and policy-based access.

  The report treats 2027–2032 utility demand recontracting, Russia’s future role, new technology commercialization, and raw material and labor readiness as key variables for judging value distribution in nuclear fuel.

• Policy and geopolitical supply chainCritical minerals competitive window

  China’s policy capacity across the minerals value chain continues to affect the speed and cost of Western supply chain reconfiguration.

  The report tracks controls on strategic minerals such as rare earths, indium, and lithium in China, as well as the fact that the U.S. secured only limited concessions, emphasizing that non-China supply chain development remains urgent.

• Commodity strategyPrecious metals flows and macro drivers

  In the short term, gold is affected by the dollar, real yields, and the path of geopolitical risk, while in the long term it remains supported by debasement, fiscal issues, and geopolitical fragmentation.

  The report argues that gold is pausing rather than reversing trend; if Hormuz-related risks ease and drive the dollar and real yields lower, gold investment demand could re-ignite.

Asset mapping & comparison

Structured mapping from thesis to named assets (strengths, weaknesses, peers, risks).

• U.S. steel industry

  Core beneficiary theme

  Strengths

  Resilient demand, low inventories, weaker imports, Section 232 tariffs, and Buy America requirements jointly support profitability.

  Weaknesses

  Non-residential activity is still pressured by weak ABI readings and high interest rates, and infrastructure bill funding may be slow to translate into steel demand.

  Comparison

  Compared with overseas steel regions lacking protection, the U.S. market is more strongly protected by trade barriers and supply chain insulation.

  Risks

  Spillover from Chinese oversupply, slower construction demand, inflation eroding real investment value, and import circumvention and transshipment.

• Uranium and nuclear fuel chain

  Medium- to long-term policy and demand beneficiary

  Strengths

  Pro-nuclear policy, potential restarts, life extensions, and new-build plants support long-term demand, with the 2027–2032 utility recontracting cycle being important.

  Weaknesses

  Raw materials, labor, midstream capacity, and delivery lead times may still constrain supply response.

  Comparison

  Compared with focusing only on the spot uranium price, procurement timing, enrichment capacity, and Russia’s role are more critical for value distribution.

  Risks

  Uncertainty around Russia’s supply role, slower-than-expected commercialization of new technologies, and changes in the pace of policy support.

• Critical minerals and rare earth supply chain

  National security and supply chain reconfiguration theme

  Strengths

  China’s export controls and strategic mineral regulation increase the value of non-China supply chains, and suppliers such as MP have strategic scarcity value.

  Weaknesses

  Western supply chain construction remains in a narrow competitive window, with cost, technology, and midstream processing capacity still bottlenecks.

  Comparison

  China’s systematic policy capacity across upstream, midstream, and end products remains stronger than the West’s decentralized buildout path.

  Risks

  Geopolitical easing could cool thematic trading, or China could further restrict exports of critical materials to markets such as Japan and the U.S.

• Gold and silver

  Macro and precious metals allocation theme

  Strengths

  Gold remains supported over the long term by currency debasement, fiscal risk, and geopolitical fragmentation, with the base case still pointing to around $6,000/oz by year-end.

  Weaknesses

  Short-term flows and investor activity have cooled, while a stronger dollar and higher real yields weigh on gold momentum; silver’s earlier tightness has materially eased.

  Comparison

  Gold’s structural support is stronger than silver’s; silver’s relative valuation is more affected by solar/PV demand, thrift, and substitution risk.

  Risks

  The path of geopolitical conflict, energy inflation, Fed repricing, and slower-than-expected recovery in investment demand.

• Aluminum and downstream aluminum processing

  Inventory, demand, and scrap spread-driven theme

  Strengths

  Middle East supply disruptions, new U.S. rolling mill startups, and import substitution may support localized demand and spreads.

  Weaknesses

  Global aluminum inventories have risen sharply since 2026, and global demand fell YoY in 1Q26, while high prices are suppressing end consumption.

  Comparison

  Downstream aluminum earnings have recently benefited from scrap spreads, but strong results and raised guidance may already be priced in for some stocks.

  Risks

  Further inventory accumulation, weak RoW demand, narrowing scrap spreads, and local supply-demand mismatches caused by new capacity.

• Agnico Eagle and Canadian gold assets

  Company event and long-term project development theme

  Strengths

  Hope Bay and the Nunavut platform offer regional operating experience, capital allocation capability, and broader exploration scope, while the increased Wallbridge stake can complement the Abitibi footprint.

  Weaknesses

  Hope Bay faces challenges from a shorter shipping season, labor recruitment, and extreme weather.

  Comparison

  Compared with the previous owner, Agnico Eagle is more likely to improve project economics through regional expertise and scaled capital investment.

  Risks

  Execution risk in Arctic construction and operations, cost inflation, and permitting and logistics uncertainty.

Key data

• U.S. steel supply-demand outlookFaster easing of oversupply through 2028JPMorgan believes resilient demand, low inventories, and weaker imports support higher structural profitability for the U.S. steel industry.
• U.S. HRC lead timesSMU 7.0 weeks, Platts 6.5 weeksBoth are above the previous 6.7 weeks and 6.4 weeks; normalized HRC lead times are typically 4 to 6 weeks.
• China steel capacity replacement policyReplacement ratio of 1.5:1 in most regionsBF-to-EAF or hydrogen metallurgy remains at 1:1, while internal restructuring and consolidation is 1.25:1; the report sees limited short-term impact, though it may marginally ease pressure on global steel prices.
• BUILD America 250 Act$580B in five-year federal surface transportation fundingThis includes $45B for bridges, up 12% from prior legislation; if ultimately passed, the plan would take effect on 2026-10-01.
• U.S. April construction starts+9.0% MoMNon-residential +18.6% MoM, residential -0.7% MoM, and non-building infrastructure-related +7.0% MoM; the total for the past 12 months is +8.1% YoY.
• ABI Architecture Billings Index48.3 in April, 49.8 in MarchThe new design contracts index was 48.0, marking 26 consecutive months below 50; ABI typically leads non-residential activity by 9 to 12 months, with correlation around 70%.
• Rare earth and critical minerals concessionsThe U.S. obtained only limited concessionsChina’s export controls remain in place, with indium explicitly named for the first time; China’s indium exports fell by about two-thirds globally YoY and by 77% to the U.S.
• Gold price framework$4,900–$5,100/oz technical resistance, year-end base-case target around $6,000/ozNear-term demand momentum has softened, leading to lower 2026 gold forecasts, but long-term structural drivers are unchanged.
• Global aluminum inventories+46% since 2026, about 1.7MtUp about 540kt year to date and about 750kt above 2025; after peaking in March, they began to decline due to Middle East supply disruptions.
• Global aluminum demand1Q26 about -2% YoYChina was flat, while RoW was about -4% YoY; the JPM Commodities Team lowered full-year demand growth to +1.4% YoY.
• Novelis expansion and restartBay Minette full ramp-up in 2H26, Oswego restart within weeksThe new 600Ktpa rolling mill helps replace imports, but may also increase scrap demand and keep spreads elevated.
• Agnico Eagle increased its stake in WallbridgeC$22.4M private placementAfter the transaction, Agnico Eagle’s stake will rise from 9.44% to 19.62%, and from 9.90% to 19.90% on a partially diluted basis.

Impact & implications

From an investment perspective, the report leans more toward assets supported by policy protection, improving supply-demand balances, and supply chain security themes, including U.S. steel, the nuclear fuel chain, and non-China rare earth supply chains. At the same time, it suggests gold needs to wait for macro flows to turn again, while the medium-term relative attractiveness of aluminum and silver is constrained by inventories, demand, and substitution risk. Investors should view this report as a weekly sector roadmap and event-driven source of clues rather than a deep single-company valuation report.

Risks

• Higher rates staying elevated for longer could weigh on non-residential construction and steel demand.
• Weak Chinese property demand and steel oversupply may continue to drag on prices in unprotected global markets.
• Even if approved, U.S. infrastructure funding may be slow to translate into actual steel demand, as seen with the IIJA.
• The nuclear fuel chain faces uncertainty around raw materials, labor, midstream capacity, Russia’s supply role, and commercialization of new technologies.
• Critical minerals export controls and geopolitical conflicts could further disrupt pricing, availability, and technology access.
• Gold is affected in the short term by the dollar, real yields, and energy inflation, while the timing of flow recovery is uncertain.
• Aluminum inventory accumulation and weak RoW demand may undermine the sustainability of prices and downstream profits.

What to watch

• 2H26 buy-side sentiment survey results and changes in metals and mining investor expectations.
• Whether U.S. steel HRC lead times, inventories, imports, and demand data continue to support improving supply-demand conditions.
• Progress toward final passage of the BUILD America 250 Act, its planned 2026-10-01 effective date, and the strength of Buy America enforcement.
• The actual implementation effects of China’s steel capacity replacement policy, new strategic minerals rules, and rare earth export controls.
• The pace of utility nuclear fuel recontracting in 2027–2032, midstream capacity expansion, and changes in Russia’s supply role.
• Gold flows, the dollar, real yields, and the path of Hormuz-related geopolitical risk.
• Novelis Oswego’s restart, Bay Minette’s startup, U.S. scrap spreads, and downstream aluminum companies’ earnings elasticity.
• Development, exploration, and cost progress for Agnico Eagle’s Hope Bay, Meliadine, and Wallbridge-related projects.